• The K7RA Solar Update

    From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 29 11:39:48 2021
    10/29/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot number increasing by nearly five-fold from 11.3 to 54.9. Average daily solar flux rose from 78.6 to 95.7. Currently our sun is peppered with spots[1].

    A new sunspot group appeared on October 22, another on October 24, two more on October 25, and another on October 26. The sunspot number peaked on Thursday, October 28, at 96, and daily solar flux peaked on the same day at 111.7.

    Geomagnetic indicators were nice and quiet, but don't expect that to last. Average daily planetary A index went from 8.4 to 4.4 and average daily middle latitude A index declined from 5.4 to 3.6.

    Predicted solar flux looks quite promising, at 113 on October 29; 114 on October 30 - November 1; 110 and 105 on November 2 - 3; 100 on November 4 - 5; 86 on November 6 - 7; 85 on November 8 - 9; 83 on November 10; 82 on November 11 - 15; 85 on November 16 - 20; 94 on November 21; 95 on November 22 - 23; 96 on November 24; 95 on November 25 - 29; 92, 90, and, 88 on November 30 - December 2, and 86 on December 3 - 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 29; 40, 35, and 12 on October 30 - November 1; 5 on November 2 - 5; 12, 10, and 8 on November 6 - 8; 5 on November 9 - 14; 10 and 8 on November 15 - 16; 5 on November 17 - 22; 8 on November 23 - 24; 10 on November 25 - 26; 5 on November 27 - 28; 8 on November 29; 5 on November 30 - December 2, and 12, 10, and 8 on December 3 - 5.

    On Thursday, Spaceweather.com[2] reported that a "strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is possible on October 30, when the CME from yesterday's X-flare is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field." This is why the predicted planetary A index on October 30-31 is 40 and 35.

    At 0129 UTC on October 29, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning: "[Sunspot] AR2887 produced X1.0 flare on October 28 at 1535 UTC, which triggered a halo CME. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth in the first half of UTC day 30 October. As a result, the geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach major storm levels with a chance of severe storm periods. The global Kp index may reach 7 (G-3 level storms). On the local night of 30 October (and maybe 31 October), aurora may be visible from Tasmania and the southern mainland coastal areas. INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION 30 - 31 OCTOBER 2021."

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, which should be affected by the increased geomagnetic activity. The CW weekend is November 27 - 28. ARRL November CW Sweepstakes is next weekend, November 6 - 8.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 29 - November 23 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on November 4 - 5, 18 - 19


    o quiet to unsettled on October 31, November 9, 12 - 13, 17, 20, 22


    o quiet to active on October 29, November 1 - 3, 10 - 11, 21, 23


    o unsettled to active on October 30, November 6 - 8, 14, 16


    o Active to disturbed November (15)


    o Solar wind will intensify on October 30 - 31, November 1, (8,)



    9 - 10, (11,) 16 - 17

    Remarks: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Darrell, AA7FV, sent this[3] along. He also sent plots of 17-meter WSPR reports for October 28, which, he noted, show the obvious effect of a CME from 1520 to 1550 UTC.

    You really should check out his pages on QRZ.com[4] and QSL.net[5], which give fascinating details of his activities, and background in astrophysics.

    Don't miss the latest video[6] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Mike May, WB8VLC, in Salem, Oregon, reported his contacts on the high HF bands until October 27. He listed only the "interesting QSOs" as there were just too many others from 17 to 10 meters to include. One was an AM contact on 15 on October 24 at 1640 UTC with CT1EHI in Portugal. Signals were solid both ways, he reported.

    Another was D4F [Cape Verde] on 10-meter SSB, "the first real strong African-region signal heard in a long time here on 10 meters."

    Others he reported included the HD8R DXpedition in the Galapagos, which he worked on 17 meters at 0129 UTC on October 27. He also worked HD8R on 10, 12, and 15 meters on October 26; E51JD in the South Cook Islands on October 24 on 10 meters (SSB), and VE8WD/m the same day on 15 meters (SSB). "A nice QSO with a ham in Yellowknife running 100 W mobile. He was over S-9 for 2 hours after our contact."

    Here[7] is a Canadian view on solar risks to the power grid, and more[8] on this week's space weather.

    In a message with the subject line, "Good propagation these days," Angel Santana, WP3GW, reported from Puerto Rico on October 26:

    "Yesterday at about 1730 UTC, heard M5JON on 28.505 MHz, which was a surprise since it has been a long time since I heard an English station on 10 meters." He reported an S-7 report. "Today contacted HD8R on 24.950 MHz split (up 5) up at 1851 UTC. I suppose and hope that the CQ WW SSB this weekend is why I am hearing much activity on all bands."

    Here's part of a message from Frank Donovan, W3LPL:

    "Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly below normal at least until mid-day Sunday.

    "We are in the geomagnetically active autumn equinox season through late October with about twice as many geomagnetically active days compared to December, January, June, and July caused by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) more frequently persisting in a southward orientation (-Bz).

    "Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms.

    "Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream.

    "More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.

    "Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 56 minutes earlier and day length is 90 minutes shorter than it was on September 22. Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the far northern polar region is rapidly declining due to steadily increasing polar night effects."

    Sunspot numbers for October 21 - 27 were 11, 28, 32, 46, 81, 95, and 91, with a mean of 54.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.9, 86.9, 86.8, 93.2, 100.6, 109.3, and 110.9, with a mean of 95.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 9, 3, 2, 2, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[11] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://helio-vo.eu/solar_activity/current/
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
    [4] http://www.qrz.com/aa7fv
    [5] https://www.qsl.net/aa7fv/
    [6] https://youtu.be/yvjR-AYm2zs
    [7] https://bit.ly/3GIuy35
    [8] https://bit.ly/2XT1QdY
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 5 12:58:38 2021
    11/05/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot numbers and solar flux index were both declining by the end of the October 28 - November 3 reporting week, but averages for both numbers were higher than reported in last week's bulletin, ARLP044. The average daily sunspot number increased from 54.9 to 67.6, while average daily solar flux jumped from 95.7 to 102.

    Coronal Mass Ejection (CME[1]) activity through the week drove geomagnetic numbers much higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.4 to 12, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.6 to 9. On November 4 the planetary A index was 69, and Alaska's College A index was 131.

    Spaceweather.com[2] reported that what it called a "cannibal CME" struck Earth at 2000 UTC on Wednesday, November 3, and that this would spark a strong geomagnetic storm, and boy, did it ever! With aurora observed in US below northern-tier states, it had a pronounced negative effect on HF propagation on Thursday, November 4. For a time on Thursday, testing propagation paths using FT8 and PSK Reporter[3], I could see no propagation above 20 meters.

    Here's more[4] on that CME from Space.com, "Sun outburst goes 'cannibal' as fast new blob overtakes a slower one

    At 0326 UTC on November 5, the Australian Space Forecast Centre noted that, although conditions have quieted down, a southward turn of the interplanetary magnetic field may cause another increase in geomagnetic activity.

    I received several reports this week that 10 meters is back"

    Jon Jones, N0JK, in Kansas noted on November 4:

    "No (VHF) enhancement in Kansas from the CME impact yet. Last weekend in the CQ WW SSB contest, 10 meters was open both days. I logged HD8R Galapagos Islands and other stations using 5 W and a mobile antenna. Best DX: D4F.

    "ZF5T was very loud Sunday afternoon around 2015 UTC on 10 meters."

    A NOAA prediction at 2118 UTC on November 4 predicted solar flux at 90 on November 5; 85 on November 6 - 7; 80 on November 8 - 12; 88 on November 13 - 14; 89 on November 15; 92 on November 16 - 19; 93 on November 20; 95 on November 21 - 27; jumping to 103, 102, 100, and 98 on November 28 - December 1; 96 on December 2 - 4; 92 and 90 on December 5 - 6; 88 on December 7 - 11; 89 on December 12, and 92 on December 13 - 16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 15, and 8 on November 5 - 7; 5 on November 8 - 14; 10 and 8 on November 15 - 16; 5 on November 17 - 29; 8 on November 30 - December 1; 5 on December 2; 12, 10, and 8 on December 3 - 5; 5 on December 6 - 11, and 8 on December 12 - 13.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 5 - December 1 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. The geomagnetic field will be:


    o quiet on 18 - 19, 23, 25


    o quiet to unsettled on November 9, 12 - 13, 17, 20, 22, 24 


    o quiet to active on November 5, 10 - 11, 21, 26 - 27 


    o unsettled to active on November 6 - 8, 14, 16, 28 


    o Conditions will be active to disturbed November (15, 29,) 30, December 1 


    o Solar wind will intensify on November (8,) 9 - 10, (11,) 16 - 17, (29 - 30), December (1 - 2,) 3 - 4



    Note: Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

    Southgate Amateur Radio News included this report[5], "Solar Cycle 25 October report from AA6XE."

    N8II in West Virginia, reported:

    "It certainly was a great month just past. DXpeditions have resumed, quite a few to Africa and all of them worked on 12 and 10 meters. C5C, The Gambia is also active, and TL7M, Central African Republic heard on 12, 15, and 20 meters, CW. 7P8RU is a Russian group worked on 30 - 10 meters on CW and 17 and 12 meters on SSB. Hearing Russia and Scandinavia on 15 has been a nearly daily occurrence. 12 meters has been open to Europe daily for about the last 10 days. South America is in daily on 10, with best conditions around 1900 - 2000 UTC; 15 begins opening to Europe at around 1240 UTC.

    "At 1645 UTC, most Europe were gone. 12-meter signals vary day to day with quite a few new countries going into the log, such as Kuwait, Israel, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Faeroe Islands, Gibraltar, and Guernsey - many on both SSB and CW. CW countries worked on 12 meters now are 103 versus about 80 before September, 15 meters now 198, and 10 CW now 98.

    "A major solar storm was forecast for the CQ World Wide phone contest October 30 - 31. When the K index peaked at 5 at 1500 UTC on the October 31, we were working loud Europeans - even northern Europe. At the start of the contest, I was on 20 and, very strangely, South American and Caribbean signals were way down with decent conditions to East Asia, excluding Japan. I heard about nine Chinese stations in just over the first hour, putting three into the log including B0A at S-9 + 20 dB from rare zone 23.

    "I also heard the Philippines, worked RN0CT in Zone 19, 7Q6M Malawi, and D4L Cape Verde in first hour. Saturday morning, 15 was opening around at around 1120 UTC to Europe. There were loud signals from all over EU, and Kazakhstan was heard. At 1329 UTC, I switched to 10 and found a few Europeans; first worked were Hungary, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, and a very loud E7AA in Bosnia. The opening was spotlight type to relatively small areas most of the Mediterranean, many from Sicily. EW5A in Belarus was the only northern European station logged at 1414 UTC for Zone 16.

    "Right around 1430 UTC, Europe faded out. I worked A73A Qatar on a peak, and South America began coming through, with signals poor at first with some good by 1450 UTC. Despite strong signals from Paraguay, Chile, and Argentina, Brazil was not loud enough to work until 1725 UTC; then many showed up through the afternoon until my 2210 UTC sunset. I was lucky to catch ZM4T New Zealand and VK4A right around sunset for Zones 32 and 30. 

    "Sunday, I was not expecting much with the rising K index, but 15 sounded pretty normal, and I logged EA1L in Spain at 1228 UTC on 10. It was a struggle to work many stations because of better conditions for stations farther to the northeast in North America. I caught 7P8RU in Lesotho at 1255 UTC. After a short break, 10 meters band blew wide open at 1339 UTC with many calls from Western Europe, including quite a few Dutch and German stations. TK5MH called from Corsica, and 4U1A called from the Vienna International Center. Then gradually northern Europe filled, with OH0V Aland Islands and calls from Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Norway, and Finland in the 1500 UTC hour. The K index was 5 reported at 1500 UTC, so it seemed strange to be able to work so far north - possibly auroral Es. Most of Europe finally faded by 1656 UTC. Quite an opening, the best of Solar Cycle 25 so far."

    We heard from Mike May, WB8VLC, in Oregon:

    "During CQ WW SSB last weekend, 10 meters was sounding like nothing I have heard in 20 years with some Europe in the morning then the typical South America in the afternoon.

    "The evening of Saturday, October 30, was the best Asia opening I have heard on 10 with 28.3 to 29 MHz filled with JA stations. The most interesting was the other Asian DX worked aside from Japan: VR2XAN in Hong Kong and DY1T in the Philippines, both in here for around 1 hour at S-9+ along with other big signals from Hawaii, New Zealand, Australia, Guam, the Mariana Islands, and even some weak China on 10 meters."

    Mike sent a long list of stations with S-9 signals on 10 meter SSB, including Cape Verde, Guam, Portugal, Madeira, Galapagos and Brazil. "Even 10 FM was active!" he said.

    From Angel Santana, WP3GW, in Puerto Rico:

    "Ten meters was the surprise band on this weekend's contest. I always start on the band and rack up the South Americans, about 26 in an hour which is almost threefold compared to last year. After working some on 15 meters at 1200 UTC for an hour, wow 10 meters was teaming with life like 5 years ago! Worked a few Europeans in half an hour and went and go during the day, including an FR about 1433 UTC. 

    "It was not until Sunday morning that 10 got interesting, when I worked early E7AA, who worked only on 10 and was my only Bosnia QSO. Then ZD7, 7P, OH0, 7Q, EA9, pretty easily with low power. At 1930 UTC turned my antenna (manually) toward the US and called on 28.392 MHz, working 56 stations in an hour, 98% of them US stations.

    "Can't wait for the ARRL 10-Meter Contest 2021!"

    From Simon, GW0NVN:

    "Here at Finningley Amateur Radio Society G0GHK, we were shown what the sun can do on Sunday, October 31. Switched to 10 during breakfast to hear a number of strong stations including VK6 having a rag chew and working a few European stations. Coming back to 10 in the afternoon, we had an over 1.5-hour pile-up of W and VE stations."

    Here is an exciting update[6] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    This weekend is ARRL November Sweepstakes[7] (CW).

    Sunspot numbers for October 28 - November 3 were 96, 82, 76, 83, 53, 42, and 41, with a mean of 67.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 111.7, 108.4, 107.2, 102.7, 97.7, 97, and 89, with a mean of 102. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 10, 20, 10, 17, and 21, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 8, 16, 8, 12, and 14, with a mean of 9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[10] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://pskreporter.info/
    [4] https://www.space.com/cannibal-coronal-mass-ejection-cme-november-2021
    [5] https://bit.ly/3bKUUmu
    [6] https://youtu.be/xOKCsuqcYvo
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 3 15:14:46 2021
    12/03/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was up this week. Average daily sunspot number increased from 26.9 to 46.1, and average daily solar flux was up 10.8 points to 90.9. Geomagnetic indicators were a little higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.9 to 8.7, and average daily middle latitude A index from 5.4 to 6.3.

    I like looking for openings on 10 meters and continue to be surprised by how often I hear nothing (when probing with FT8 and pskreporter[1]) but find plentiful openings on 12 meters, indicating the MUF is somewhere between 10 and 12 meters. To help 10-meter observers, I have a CW propagation beacon on 28.2833 MHz, K7RA/b in Seattle. It runs about 10 W into a half-wave dipole at a modest height. 

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 26, one on November 28, and two more on November 30.

    On December 1, Spaceweather.com[2] announced a geomagnetic storm watch: "Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on December 3 when a CME might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on Nov. 29th by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun's southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss just as likely as a glancing blow."

    At 2340 UTC on December 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "The effects of a coronal hole windstream and coronal mass ejection are expected to increase geomagnetic activity on 03 December.

    Conditions are likely to be initially quiet with activity increasing. Active to minor storm levels are expected."

    Predicted solar flux for the next month has flux values peaking at 94 on December 27 - 28. The forecast sees values of 86 on December 3; 84 on December 4 - 5; 82 on December 6; 80 on December 7 - 10; 82 on December 11 - 12; 80 on December 13 - 14; 85 on December 15 - 21; 82 and 80 on December 22 - 23; 78 on December 24 - 25; 92 on December 26; 94 on December 27 - 28; 88 on December 29 - January 1, then 85, 82, and 80 on January 2 - 4; 82 on January 5 - 8, and 80 on January 9 - 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 14, 10, and 12 on December 3 - 6; 8 on December 7 - 8; 5 on December 9 - 11; 8, 12 and, 10 on December 12 - 14; 5 on December 15 - 16; then 8 and 10 on December 17 - 18; 5 on December 19 - 25; 8 on December 26; 5 on December 27 - 29; 10 on December 30 - 31; 8 on January 1; 5 on January 2 - 7, and 8, 12, and, 10 on January 8 - 10.

    AA6XE wrote:

    "We now stand at exactly 2 years since the Cycle 24/25 minimum was recorded, and the most notable attribute of Cycle 25 is its slow climb out. We have seen bursts of activity from the sun where numerous active regions pop up with only a handful actually developing into numbered sunspot groups. The bulk of the new regions that form quickly decay away. As it stands right now Solar Cycle 25 activity is running a little bit ahead of the same point in Solar Cycle 24. Does this point to a weak Solar Cycle much like we experienced with Solar Cycle 24? It's still too early to say. The first couple of years in any Solar Cycle are never easy to take and Cycle 25 is proving itself no exception. We await 'the breakout,' when solar activity ramps up dramatically.

    "A dramatic run-up in solar flux over a period of a few days has little influence on increasing ionospheric MUF. What does have an effect on the ionospheric MUF is an increase in the monthly solar flux average and, more significantly, an increase of the 90-day mean solar flux reading. The dramatic and unanticipated spike in sunspot activity we saw a year ago, November 2020, temporarily boosted the 90-day solar flux average, which had been running in the low 70s at the time, into the low 80s in the ensuing 60 days. It became quickly apparent the November 2020 event was an outlier, and the 90-day solar flux subsequently slipped back to the mid-70s by mid-April 2021. Since that time the 90-day solar flux average has been rising steadily, albeit slowly. As long as those figures continue to steadily chug uphill, the MUF will continue to rise. The 90-ay solar flux average as it stands presently is in the upper 80s. The 90-day solar flux mean will be in the low 90s by the end of December if Solar Activity resumes the pace of growth we saw early in the fall. The solar breakout predicted by folks at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR[3]) has not materialized in time to provide any sort of relief to the winter doldrums we typically experience.

    "On the bright side, this winter is shaping up to be one of the best we will see for 160-meter DX in the last several years. Solar activity has picked up just enough to increase ionization at those frequencies with little or no increase in D-Layer absorption, while the Planetary K Index has remained low."

    On November 29, N0JK, reported from Kansas:

    "There was 6-meter sporadic-E on Thanksgiving. From Kansas I worked WB5TUF (EL29) and NE5U (rare grid EL19) around 0240 UTC November 25 on 50. 313 MHz FT8. N0LL (EM09) worked NR4J (EM60) at 1625 UTC on FT8 on November 25."

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly commentary on phenomena in the sun, in the magnetosphere, and in the ionosphere of the Earth: One week ago, I compiled my last weekly forecast of Earth's magnetic field activity. Primarily, my goal was to compile predictions of changes in the ionospheric propagation of decameter waves. Their first users were my friends - radio amateurs. But 45 years ago no one provided available predictions. That's why I gradually learned to compile them myself. Today, actually applicable predictions are available from several sources on a weekly and daily basis, especially in the US, Belgium, Australia, Russia, and, to my delight, also in the Czech Republic. In the meantime, I had long since reached retirement age and planned to finally quit. But I was asked to try to continue, using my experience. Therefore, from now I will try to write comments on current and upcoming development. If this activity will be found as useful and/or interesting, I will continue. And like 45 years ago, it's an experiment. So here is my first attempt:

    Solar activity remains at current levels, and due to the location of solar coronal holes near the central meridian, the influx of faster solar winds can be expected to continue. The irregular daily course of changes in the ionosphere, to which the relatively low or still declining solar activity will contribute, should continue in the next 5 days or so.

    In addition, after the CME on November 29, it is still possible for the plasma cloud to arrive late on December 2 or on December 3, but the probability is already low.

    After the expected slight increase in solar activity, I expect a more regular course of ionosphere parameters in the second half of December."  - F. K. Janda, OK1HH

    Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz[4], ok1hh(at)rsys.cz[5]; Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU[6].

    NASA's new solar tour[7] feature starts today:

    Sunspot rotation rate history[8].

    Sunspot variations during their decay[9].

    Dynamics of bright features[10].

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted her latest space weather analysis[11] on December 1.

    Sunspot numbers for November 25 - December 1 were 20, 52, 53, 53, 47, 61, and 37, with a mean of 46.1. 10.7 cm flux was 93.6, 92.3, 91.8, 92.2, 89.8, 90, and 86.4, with a mean of 90.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 9, 11, and 18, with a mean of 8.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, 8, and 14, with a mean of 6.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[12] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[13] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[14] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[15] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[16] website.

    Instructions[17] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[18] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://ncar.ucar.edu/
    [4] http://crk.cz/
    [5] http://rsys.cz/
    [6] http://boh.cze.eu/
    [7] https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2021/12/02/welcome-to-nasas-solartour/
    [8] https://bit.ly/3rsLfu1
    [9] https://bit.ly/3rAJ7QS
    [10] https://bit.ly/31pJraj
    [11] https://youtu.be/cISNu72utnI
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [18] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 10 13:31:49 2021
    12/10/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but 4 days later it was gone, and on Thursday, December 9, we saw a second day with no sunspots.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6. Average daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising. The December 9 forecast shows 77 on December 10; 80 on December 11 - 14; 82 on December 15; 84 on December 16 - 17; 85 on December 18; 87 on December 19 - 22; 86 on December 23 - 27; 84 on December 28; 82 on December 29 - January 2; 80 on January 3 - 5; 82 on January 6 - 8; 80 on January 9 - 10; 82 on January 11; 85 on January 12 - 14, and 87 on January 15 - 18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 10, and 8 on December 10 - 13; 8 on December 13 - 14; 5 on December 14 - 15; 10, 8, 12, 10, and 8 on December 16 - 20; 5 on December 21 - 26; 15, 18, and 12 on December 27 - 29; 8 on December 30 - January 3; 5 on January 4 - 5; 10, 8, 5, 12, and 10 on January 6 - 10; 5 on January 11 - 12; 15, 12, 10, and 8 on January 13 - 16, and 5 on January 17 - 22.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH: Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and Earth's Ionosphere, December 9, 2021:

    The only sunspot group on Active Region 2904, in which we observed three spots
    R = 13) on December 7, was calm and decayed to plage. R = 0 applies, since
    December 8, so we register a minimum within the quasi-periodic 27-day fluctuation. At the same time, solar wind has weakened, the geomagnetic field has calmed, and as a consequence result are the lowest values of f0F2 (critical frequency of the F2 layer). However, the decreasing length of sunlight in Earth's Northern Hemisphere also contributes to it.

    Until the end of the year, we can expect a gradual rise in solar activity to the level of the end of November, an irregular alternation of the Earth's magnetic field between quiet and unsettled, and a gradual rise in daily f0F2 values just slightly above average.

    Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz[1], ok1hh(at)rsys.cz[2]

    [3]Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU[4]

    This weekend is the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest[5]! Solar flux should be rising a modest amount during the event. Debris from asteroid Phaethon could possibly enhance propagation on 10 meters during the Geminids meteor shower, peaking on December 13.

    N0JK reported on Wednesday from Kansas:

    "The Geminids meteor shower is predicted to peak December 13 - 14. Already, meteor rates are picking up.

    "I was able to work NJ0W/r in grid DN82 on 50 MHz meteor scatter using MSK144 on December 7, at 0330 UTC. Dave, NJ0W, made other meteor scatter contacts as well. DN82 is considered a rare grid for the Fred Fish Memorial Award (FFMA[6]) on 6 meters."

    The FFMA is awarded for working all North America grid squares on 6 meters. So far, Fred Fish, W5FF (SK), is the only ham who has done this.

    Sunspot numbers for December 2 - 8, 2021 were 45, 29, 35, 36, 14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 86.6, 85.3, 88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

    Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[13] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://crk.cz/
    [2] http://rsys.cz/
    [3] http://rsys.cz/
    [4] http://boh.cze.eu/
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/ffma
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 17 15:48:45 2021
    12/17/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots disappeared December 8 - 11. Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux hardly changed at all, with sunspots at 24.4 during the December 9 - 15 reporting week, compared to 24.6 last week, and average daily solar flux shifting from 82.6 to 82.9, rising to 102.5 by Wednesday. But, sunspots have come back dramatically over the past few days, with the daily sunspot number hitting 127 on December 16, when the noon 10.7-centimeter solar flux reading at Canada's Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory (DRAO[1]) was 117.9, reaching 121.5 at the 2200 UTC reading.

    Geomagnetic activity was quiet. Average daily planetary A index changed from 7.6 to 5, and average daily middle latitude A index from 5.3 to 3.9.

    One new sunspot group emerged on December 12, with two more appearing the next day, two more on December 15, and another two on December 16.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month looks very good for this week at 118 on December 17 - 21; 115 and 110 on December 22 - 23; 82 on December 24 - 27; 80 on December 28; 78 on December 29 - January 3; then 80 on January 4 - 10; 82 on January 11, and 84 on January 12 - 17. Predicted flux values drop below 80 after January 24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 17; 5 on December 18 - 19; 8, 16, 12, and 8 on December 20 - 23; 5 on December 24 - 26; 15, 18, and 12 on December 27 - 29; 8 on December 30 - January 1; 5 on January 2 - 8; 8 and 5 on January 9 - 10; 12, 10, 10, and 8 on January 11 - 14; 5 on January 15 - 22; then 15, 18, and 12 on January 23 - 25, and 8 on January 26 - 28.

    Unfortunately, propagation was poor during the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest[2] over the December 11 - 12 weekend - not surprising with no sunspots on the 2 days prior to the contest, and none over the weekend. On Friday night, I heard no signals (with a modest dipole antenna), so I called CQ on CW just above 28 MHz, and worked one station only 8 miles away. I worked a few stations on Sunday across North America, and heard many trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) signals from South America.

    Don't miss "Understanding an Ionosonde to Understand the Ionosphere," by propagation expert Eric Nichols, KL7AJ, in the January 2022 edition of QST[3], currently available to ARRL members online.

    Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Solar activity has risen a little more and faster in recent days than we expected. After several smaller eruptions, the probability of an M-class solar flare increased. Although Solar Cycle 25 is still close to minimum, we can expect its maximum in 3 to 4 years to be higher than usually predicted. The last rise in solar activity is not long (in recent days only); after that, a decline can be expected again in the last week of December.

    Although most of the active areas are located south of the solar equator and not too far from the coronal holes, we still expect only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity starting the third week of December.

    Earth's ionosphere reacted significantly to the last rise of solar radiation by the rise of MUF. However, the hitherto stable development will be replaced by fluctuations and deformations of the daily course. This will happen probably at the beginning of the third week of December. This will be followed by a relatively significant decrease in MUF, both day and night. The decline of MUF by night will be significant, if the onset of the increase in geomagnetic activity will be up during the night.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for December 17-23 from Tomas Bayer at The National Geomagnetic Observatory near Budkov in the Czech Republic.


    o Quiet: December 17 - 18, 22 - 23


    o Unsettled: December 18 - 22


    o Active: December 18 - 19


    o Minor storm: unlikely about December 19


    o Major storm: 0


    o Severe storm: 0



    Toward the end of current forecast period, we expect, at most, quiet to unsettled conditions.

    Max White, M0VNG, noted this article, "Swarm and Cluster get to the bottom of geomagnetic storms[4]," from the European Space Agency.

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted[5] more of her continuing space weather course.

    I received many emails correcting the information I provided last week regarding the Fred Fish award. This[6] sums it up best.

    Sunspot numbers for December 9 - 15 were 0, 0, 0, 12, 40, 40, and 79, with a mean of 24.4. The 10.7-centimeter solar flux was 76.7, 75.7, 76.2, 79.9, 80.6, 88.9, and 102.5, with a mean of 82.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 5, and 9, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 4, and 8, with a mean of 3.9.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

    Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[13] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://nrc.canada.ca/en/research-development/nrc-facilities/dominion-radio-astrophysical-observatory-research-facility
    [2] http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/qst
    [4] https://bit.ly/3IQBLix
    [5] https://youtu.be/T8di-D1s-40
    [6] https://www.arrl.org/ffma
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 24 13:06:36 2021
    12/24/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was way up this week, and it was reflected in on-air activity, especially on 10 meters. If only the ARRL 10-Meter Contest were held a week later! The average daily sunspot number jumped by 100 points - from 24.4 last week to 124.4 in the December 16 - 22 reporting week. Average daily solar flux increased from 82.9 to 125.

    Average planetary A index went from 5 to 9.1, and average middle latitude A index from 3.9 to 6.4.

    It was great to see online images of the sun covered with spots.

    Predicted solar flux over the next week looks quite promising, with daily solar flux more than 100 until the end of the year, then rising above 100 on January 16 - 22. But the outlook issued on Thursday, December 23 wasn't as optimistic as the one issued a day earlier.

    Flux values are predicted at 130, 125, 120, 115, and 113 on December 24 - 28; 110 on December 29 - 30; 85 on December 31; then 83, 81, 80, and 81 on January 1 - 4; 82 on January 5 - 6; 83, 86, 90, and 92 on January 7 - 10; 95 on January 11 - 12; 96 on January 13 - 15, jumping up to 115 on January 16 - 17; 114, 111, and 110 on January 18 - 20; 108, 102, and 95 on January 21 - 23; 90, 88, 87, and 85 on January 24 - 27, then dropping to a low of 80 on January 30 before rising above 90 after the first week of February.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 16, 8, 10, and 12 on December 24 - 29; 8 on December 30 - 31, then 5 on January 1 - 8; 8 and 5 on January 9 - 10; 10 on January 11 - 12; 5 on January 13 - 14; 8, 12, 18, 12, and 8 on January 15 - 19; 5 on January 20 - 22; 8, 10, 8, and 8 on January 23 - 26, and 5 on January 27 - February 4.

    These observations from J.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Unlike meteorologists, for example, we do not have reliable models of the Sun's behavior and subsequent changes in Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere. Therefore, we did not expect the current increase in activity. On the other hand, we can consider them as another promise of a higher maximum of Solar Cycle 25.

    "Most spots are in the Sun's southern hemisphere, M-class flares are observed in both hemispheres, the solar flux has climbed from the lowest to the highest values in 2 weeks, and the solar wind speed increased over 10 days.

    "Geomagnetic activity increased relatively only slightly, but only after the spot activity moved to the western half of the solar disk. These changes were mostly favorable for HF propagation conditions. Before the start of the ascent, the 18 MHz band was regularly open for DX contacts, while more recently, the 21 MHz band has opened relatively reliably.

    "As a result of the eruptions of previous days, Earth's magnetic field activity should increase around December 24 and likely again on December 27.

    "Before the end of the year, a significant increase in solar activity is expected before it rises again around mid-January."

    Thanks to KH6CP for this article[1] on the new WindCube satellite:

    W9NY wrote from Chicago:

    "Even though conditions were disappointing for most of the ARRL 10-Meter Contest weekend, there were sporadic openings all over the United States from my Dune Acres location, and for a few minutes at a time signals, from both the Colorado and California areas were very strong. I also worked a number of stations in South America, but only Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.

    "On Sunday, 12/19, 10 really opened up for a while. I first heard a W6 beacon in the morning coming in S-9 and not another signal on the band. After one CQ at 28.420, I started a long string of contacts in late morning, and again during mid-afternoon. Some west coast stations running just 100 W to dipoles were coming in 20 dB over S-9, just like in the good old days.

    "Made some contacts on 12 meters too. I heard nothing on 6 meters.

    "I am looking forward to using my MFJ loop on 10 meters from Miami Beach over the first 3 months of 2022."

    KA3JAW monitors 11 meters for sporadic-E. On December 23 he wrote:

    "Wednesday, December 22, saw a 6-hour multi-hop transatlantic sporadic-E event into western Europe on 11 meters, from 1326 to 1929 UTC. Solar flux index hit its highest point in the current solar cycle at 140. This was due to nine sunspot groups; 2907, 2908, 2909, 2911, 2912, 2915, 2916, 2917, and 2918.

    "Sunday, December 19, saw a crazy 8-hour single and multi-hop sporadic-E day on 11 meters, from 1623 on December 19 until 0037 on December 20.

    "During noontime, western Canadian prairie provinces plus US west coast stations were rolling into the US northeast. From 0222 until 2320 UTC, Es conditions were deteriorating with increased background noise conditions until the last station from Golden Valley, Arizona was heard at 0037 UTC. Seems that the secondary sporadic-E winter season has begun."

    On December 19, Steve Sacco (who did not give a call sign) wrote this, regarding 10 meters:

    "I've never seen so many KL7s on at the same time. So far, have worked two, plus VE8CK and VY1FC.

    "PSKR showing the band open from my location to Europe and KL7 and JA and VK at 2215 UTC on December 19. JA3REX worked at 2217 UTC.

    "If only this had happened last weekend!"

    Jon, N0JK, wrote:

    "I was on 6 meters using MSK144 on the morning of December 14 at the peak of the Geminids meteor shower. 50.260 MHz was busy. Worked WI9WI, WG0G, and KF0Y in rare grid DN92 around 1400 UTC. All random contacts.

    "Also checked 50.245 for W5A (EL15). Some flickers on the screen, but no decodes."

    W8TJM of Liberty Lake, Washington, commented on his December 19 activity on 15 meters:

    "As soon as I got my 15 meter half-wave vertical antenna up at my low-noise site at 1915 UTC, I worked OH6RM in Finland. He was S-5 - S7 with very little QSB, and we had a solid 25-minute QSO, and then I listened to his contacts off and on for another hour. I also had an enjoyable contact with Per, SM2LIY, at 1950 UTC and he was also S-5 - S-7 but had a very fast flutter on his signal that was consistent. I heard no European stations."

    Carl, K9LA, commented:

    "The paths that Toivo and Per commented on can be two different mechanisms depending on where the US station is. I wrote about this (called 'the Santa Claus Polar Path[2]') in my monthly column on my website back in 2014.

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted[3] a new forecast on December 23 with a video running 96 minutes.

    Sunspot numbers for December 16 - 22 were 127, 119, 117, 109, 115, 147, and 137, with a mean of 124.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 117.9, 120.9, 121.3, 115.3, 122.7, 136.6, and 140.4, with a mean of 125. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 4, 12, 16, 10, and 11, with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 2, 8, 13, 7, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean...," and this propagation page[6] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

    Instructions[9] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[10] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3yWtVPH
    [2] http://www.k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf
    [3] https://youtu.be/PfPi5cYR31Q
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 31 14:30:06 2021
    12/31/2021

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity persisted this week, although the numbers were a little lower. The average daily sunspot number declined from 124.4 to 110.1. Average daily solar flux slipped slightly, from 125 to 124. Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 6.4, and average middle latitude numbers changed from 6.4 to 4.4.

    New sunspot groups appeared on December 25, 26, and 28.

    Solar flux over the next month is expected to peak at 130 on January 18 - 19, and the numbers are 100 on December 31 - January 1 - 2; 98, 95, and 95 on January 3 - 5; then 90, 92, and 100 on January 6 - 8; 105 and 110 on January 9 - 10; 115 on January 11 - 13; 118 on January 14 - 15; then 122 and 128 on January 16 - 17; 130 on January 18 - 19; 128, 125, and 120 on January 20 - 22; 125 on January 23 - 24; 122 on January 25; 120 on January 26 - 27; 115, 110, 100, and 95 on January 28 - 31; 90 on February 1 - 2; 92 and 100 on February 3 - 4; 105 and 110 on February 5 - 6, and 115 on February 7 - 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12 and 8 on December 31 - January 3; 5 on January 4 - 10; 10 on January 11 - 12; 5 on January 13 - 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 - 16; 8 on January 17 - 18; 5 on January 19 - 22; 8, 10, 8, and 8 on January 23 - 26; then 5 on January 27 - February 6, and 8 on February 7 - 8.

    JK Janda, OK1HH, offers his weekly commentary on the sun, the magnetosphere, and Earth's ionosphere for December 30, 2021. (A continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity predictions, published between 1978 - 2021.)

    Solar activity was a little more vivid than we expected. Both spot and flare activity predominated in the Southern Hemisphere, while small coronal holes were observed mostly in the Northern Hemisphere.

    This corresponded with irregular occurrences of the slightly increased activity of the Earth's magnetic field and irregularities in the daily course of the ionosphere parameters.

    The surprise came after the increase in proton density in the solar wind in the evening of December 29, where only a relatively small increase in its group velocity was observed. The result in the ionosphere was higher critical frequencies in the F2 layer in the middle of the night, and an increased occurrence of scattering and extended reflections, especially on the morning of December 30.

    Mike, KM0T, in northwestern Iowa (EM13) wrote early on December 29 about 6 meters:

    "Watching Spaceweather.com[1] for a few days, and they predicted a few M-class flares hitting, but they seemed to have missed us. But I also noticed that the flux was around 140, and, knowing that a slight disturbance could skew things the right way, I was somewhat aware of things.

    "Then I saw TEP-chordal stuff happening on December 26 to ZL/VK, which did not really surprise me thinking we may have gotten a few glancing blows from the flares. However, I did not see many if any midwest reports, so I sort of ignored it.

    "The next day I saw it again, but was busy. Then, I saw an email from W7XU (Arliss in South Dakota) saying ZL was in. Sure enough. I turned the radio on and got decodes from ZL7DX. It appeared that there was an Es link in the midwest to DM43/XE area that was getting into the TEP-Chordal hops. I believe ZL7 was working a few XEs on FT8. So, I found one decode and moved my TX frequency up and started calling -17 report. He came back a few minutes later with -20, and then my RR73 was answered 73 in same sequence. It all happened very quickly. Then he was gone!

    "Thought it was my first ZL, then I found out it was ZL7.

    "Not sure anyone this far north and east worked him. The stacked six-element 6-meter Yagis were as low as possible, due to recent wind storms. Bottom one is about 24 feet, then about 20 feet higher on the mast for the upper one. 1.5 kW, no preamp, FLEX-6600."

    Related to this, see this article[2] by Carl, K9LA.

    Grant, KZ1W wrote on the Western Washington DX Club email list on December 29:

    "N6MZ and I were separately working EU stations a couple of weeks ago on 12 meters well before local sunrise. Clearly, the short path wasn't open, and we were mystified how that can happen.

    "This week I am working EU on 15 well before sunrise.

    "Both bands are very limited on short path with sunrise here and sunset in EU so close together at this time of year.

    "I found a possible explanation in K9LA's Propagation book: When US amateurs point antennas at Central Africa toward the magnetic equator, the higher level of ionization there often causes signals to be scattered. If EU points south to SW, a portion of their signals will be side-scattered west. The path is optimized roughly between 1200 and 1500 UTC, and seeking the best azimuth is worth trying. Should work on 10 meters, if EU is there.

    "With QRO, a beam, and FT8, there is enough gain to make it work. Try it if the 40-meter FT8 mess is too annoying. But I did work A71AE Qatar on long path on 40 this week for a new band and a Marathon count.

    I've used NE-aimed scattering paths on 10 meters open to the Caribbean, but not to EU. Different mechanisms I think. Learn something new all the time."

    AG7N responded:

    "20 has been excellent to EU about 8 - 9 AM local. I've been working my good friend DF9LJ, who lives close to the Danish border, on CW and SSB at 599/59 the last few days. The band closes about 9:15 AM local. On 40, EU has been coming in at 7:30 AM local (1530 UTC) but I've been receiving the signals LP and SP simultaneously, which makes copy difficult at moderate CW speeds."

    W0PB wrote:

    "On December 19 between 2032 and 2035 UTC on 10 meter CW, I worked Tord, SM3EVR, and Per, SM2LIY, in that order. Both were 579 - 589 here in West Des Moines, Iowa. They both gave me a 559 report from my 100 W and ground-mounted vertical. They disappeared 10 minutes later."

    N0JK wrote:

    "Some sporadic-E December 26 from Kansas to N5BO (EM60) Florida. He received me on 50.313 MHz FT8 at -21 dB. Stations along the Gulf Coast and Texas worked New Zealand on 6 meter FT8 with Es links to TEP."

    Jeff, N8II, wrote from West Virginia on December 30:

    "I worked MI0SAI and EI9HX with S-9 signals on 12 meters SSB at about 1545 UTC today. VE2CSI in CQ zone 2 (NE QC) was S-9 + 25 dB on 10 meters CW via Es at the same time. The DXMaps[3] MUF was above 30 MHz in almost all directions from FM19 at 1700 UTC, but I only worked one station in San Jacinto County, Texas, plus Reno, Nevada, on either F2 or double hop Es.

    "Sunday through Wednesday I worked EU on 10 meters,, with Tuesday being the best day. Two stations in Scotland were S-9 at around 1400 UTC Tuesday. They included Ian, MM0TFU, who always seems to be there when band is open. He now runs 400 W to a five-element Yagi.

    "Also, I worked MI0SAI and an OE6 on 20 meters SSB at 2130 UTC Wednesday about 25 minutes before my sunset and many hours past EU sunset with possible Es aid."

    Don't forget Straight Key Night[4] tonight and tomorrow (January 1 UTC). I will be using keys from the estate of Vern Buttenob, K7AYE, who administered my Novice license exam when I was 12 years old.

    Kids Day[5] takes place on New Year's Day.

    Sunspot numbers for December 23 - 29 were 143, 145, 117, 95, 85, 107, and 79, with a mean of 110.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 129.8, 126.2, 130.7, 125.4, 123.9, 120.5, and 111.4, with a mean of 124. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 10, 9, and 7, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 5, 2, 8, 6, and 5, with a mean of 4.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3pGyScz
    [3] http://www.dxmaps.com/
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/kids-day
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 7 14:48:21 2022
    01/07/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity was substantially lower this week, but new sunspot groups emerged on December 31, January 1, January 4, and January 5. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 110.1 to 36.4, while average daily solar flux went from 124 to 91.4.

    Geomagnetic activity was still fairly quiet, even with a number of flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with average daily planetary A index changing from 6.4 to 7.7, and average middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month shows 10.7-centimeter flux values peaking at 120 on January 16 - 24, and again at 120 in mid - February. The daily predicted values are 94 on January 7; 96 on January 8 - 14; 115 on January 15; 120 on January 16 - 24; 110 on January 25; 100 on January 26 - 27; 95 and 90 on January 28 - 29; 88 on January 30 - 31; 85 on February 1 - 5; 90, 95, and 100 on February 6 - 8; 115 on February 9 - 11, and 120 on February 12 - 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 7 - 8; 12, 14, and 8 on January 9 - 11; 5 on January 12 - 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 - 16; back to 8 again on January 17 - 18; 5 on January 19 - 22; 10 on January 23; 8 on January 24 - 26; 5 and 10 on January 27 - 28; 8 on January 29 - 30; 5 on January 31 - February 6; 10 on February 7 - 8; 5 on February 9 - 10 and 8, 12, 8, and 8 on February 11 - 14.

    Here is the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and Earth's Ionosphere - January 6, 2022" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. This is a continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity predictions published between 1978 and 2022.

    Solar activity is declining as expected. The last of the chain of active areas on the sun, which gradually set behind the western limb of the solar disk, still contributed to the increase in the speed of the solar wind in the first 3 days of the new year.

    Magnetic field activity has decreased since January 4, and MUF values are gradually declining.

    The solar coronal holes, which now extend along the southern half of the central meridian, should contribute to a slight increase in the speed of the solar wind in the coming days.

    In conclusion, the best news is that we expect a recurrent increase in solar activity around mid-January.

    Visit the SolarHam[1] website by VE3EN, long-term valued not only by radio amateurs but by professional astronomers. - F.K. Janda, OK1HH

    I frequently check the STEREO satellite website[2] to peer over the sun's horizon to see what might emerge over the next few days. I look for those messy white splotches, which may indicate magnetic complexity and perhaps a returning or emerging sunspot.

    Although the image is constantly updated (every few minutes) presenting views of the sun in real time, in October 2014 communication with the STEREO-B spacecraft[3] was lost, so we no longer see a full 360° image of the sun.

    I've been wondering how much it would cost to replace the failed spacecraft and if there might be any plans to do so. I checked with someone at NASA, and received this interesting response:

    "I don't know exactly how much it would cost to build a single spacecraft to replace STEREO-B at this point.

    "The two spacecraft combined (A and B) were about $550 million back before STEREO launch in 2006.

    "There is no plan to replace STEREO-B, but based on the success of the STEREO mission there are a lot of people proposing missions observing the Sun and solar wind from spacecraft at the relatively stable Sun-Earth L4 and/or L5 points or else other spacecraft orbiting the Sun. We will see if any of them are funded. The exact cost would depend on the details of the mission."

    L4 and L5 refer to Lagrange points[4].

    Jon Jones, N0JK, in Lawrence, Kansas wrote:

    "January 3 was a big day for the VHF bands.

    "The Quadrantid meteor shower appeared to peak around 2030 UTC January 3, as per the NASA prediction.

    "I logged N0LL/P DM89 (353 miles) at 1950 UTC on 50.260 MHz MSK144. Then KE8FD (EN80, 779 miles) also 50.260 MSK144. Logged KA9CFD (EN40, 993 miles) on FT8, too far for groundwave; may have been meteor enhanced.

    "That evening there was a strong sporadic-E opening across North America. I had a 6 meter PSK flag from ZF1EJ (EK99, 1573 miles) at 2357 UTC. Later worked N7BHC in rare EL15 (829 miles, Brownsville, Texas) at 0246 UTC."

    Jon writes the monthly "World Above 50 MHz[5]" column in QST, and operates from grid square EM17 in Kansas.

    More good 10-meter news from Greg Mitchell, KB1AWM, in Goose Creek, South Carolina:

    "Just wanted to report a very favorable afternoon on 10 meters on December 27. Worked 4 VK stations back to back from South Carolina starting about 3:30 PM local (2030 UTC). Antenna was a simple longwire. VK4ZC started the run. He copied me at -06, and I gave him a -15 report. VK3BOX, VK2HFP, and VK3KJ followed, with the last one issuing me a +04. Great Christmas surprise on 10 meters. Over the past several years, I have never worked that easily into the South Pacific on 10."

    On January 6, WJ5O posted to an HF beacon email list:

    "It's mid-morning in Southern Alabama, and I'm hearing beacon signals a bit earlier than usual.

    "1549 - 1559 UTC, 6 January 2022, I can hear/identify five 10-meter beacon signals into EM71as.

    "28.2082 AK2F, RANDOLPH, NJ, 885 miles

    "28.234 K4DP, COVINGTON, VA, 534 miles

    "28.236 W8YT, MARTINSBURG, WV, 691 miles

    "28.270, WA3NFV, FAIR HILL, PA, 838 miles

    "28.296 W3APL, LAUREL, MD, 733 miles"

    Al, W1VTP, in New Hampshire wrote on January 5:

    "Last night was the pits [on 75 meters]. We did all our communications using the Washington SDR, and it was mostly successful. Point-to-point communication [was] useless."

    I think what happened was that the ionosphere directly above his area was not dense enough to reflect 75-meter signals. We may think of local 75-meter signals depending on ground wave propagation, but in fact it may depend on high-angle signals reflected from the overhead ionosphere.

    Sunspot numbers for December 30 - through January 5 were 77, 53, 52, 25, 12, 12, and 24, with a mean of 36.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 102.4, 101.5, 93.9, 89, 84, 85.5, and 83.7, with a mean of 91.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 11, 10, 12, 6, and 3, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 2, 9, 7, 9, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://www.solarham.net/
    [2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [3] https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/behind_status.shtml
    [4] https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/faq/88/what-are-lagrange-points/
    [5] https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 14 13:05:29 2022
    01/14/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this warning at 2355 UTC on January 13:

    "A Southern coronal hole with extensions into the equatorial region is expected to reach geo-effective location on the solar disk on late UTC day 15 January. As a result, unsettled-to-active conditions with a chance of minor storms are possible on these two days."

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on January 9, and another showed up on January 12, followed by three more on January 13. Average daily sunspot numbers rose six points this week, to 42.4, and average daily solar flux increased from 91.4 to 101.6.

    Another positive sign on Thursday, January 13: the daily sunspot number soared to 111, far above the recent weekly average, and the highest number since Christmas Day 2021.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter this week, with average daily planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.1, and average daily middle latitude A index from 6 to 4.1.

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported the new solar cycle is performing better than expected, and used this illustration[2].

    They went on to say that sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15 straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021 was the highest in 5 years - and more than twice the value forecast by the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.

    Higher A index values on January 8 and 9 were from a G-1 class storm caused by co-rotating interaction regions[3].

    Predicted solar flux for the next month shows values peaking at 120 on January 21 - 24 and again around mid - February. Predicted values are 106, 108, and 110 on January 14 - 16; 108 on January 17 - 18; 106 and 104 on January 19 - 20; 120 on January 21 - 24; 110 on January 25; 100 on January 26 - 27; 95 and 90 on January 28 - 29; 85 on January 30 - February 1; 95 and 105 on February 2 - 3; 100 on February 4 - 5; 102 on February 6 - 7; 105 on February 8; 110 on February 9 - 10; 115 on February 11 - 12, and 120 on February 13 - 20. Flux values are expected to dip below 90 after February 25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 14; 14, 24, 12, and 8 on January 15 - 18; 5 on January 19 - 22; 10 on January 23; 8 on January 24 - 26; 5 on January 27; 10 on January 28 - 30; 5 on January 31 - February 3; 15, 10, and 8 on February 4 - 6; 5 on February 7 - 11; 12, 10, and 8 on February 12 - 14; 5 on February 15 - 18; 10 on February 19, and 8 on February 20 - 21.

    Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - January 13, 2022" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "The current view of the distribution of active areas on the sun seems at first glance to be relatively simple. Current activity should keep solar flux above 100 SFU. Other active areas beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk - which we see thanks to the STEREO satellite - should increase that number to somewhere around 120 SFU soon. The key feature for the influence toward Earth is the prominence of the southern polar coronal hole, which will be responsible for increasing of the enhanced speed of the solar wind and the activity of the Earth's magnetic field in the coming days. This is a recurring event that will take place around January 16. After that we expect a decline in solar activity at the end of January and the beginning of February."

    N2CG wrote:

    "On Monday, January 10, at around 1600 UTC I went on the DXMAPS website and clicked the '50 MHz' tab, and to my surprise found that there was a very strong, in-progress 6 meter FT8 opening between Florida and my location in Northern New Jersey (FN20) and the Pennsylvania/New York/Connecticut and Southern New England area. Over the next 2-1/2 hours I casually made FT8 contacts with 12 Florida stations in addition to C6ACB in FL15 and CM2RSV in EL83. The band continued to be open from morning into the afternoon and evening and finally closed at around midnight local time, 0500 UTC.

    "The next day January 11, 6 again opened up on FT8 although not as concentrated to Florida from my location. I worked stations on FT8 in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. At 2022 UTC I worked XE2X in EL06 on 6-meters FT8." 

    Carl, K9LA, commented on the question from W1VTP about poor local 75 meter propagation in last week's bulletin.

    "I'm active in the Indiana CW traffic net (QIN) and the Ninth Region Net (9RN). We can also have problems on 80 in the winter months, especially when we're still near solar minimum. Our Plan B is to move to 160 meters, and that always works.

    "Yes, it's due to the nighttime F2 region electron density being too low to support high-angle signals. I wrote about this in my April 2020 Monthly Feature[4] on my website."

    Here's the latest video[5] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Here's a local newspaper article about solar cycle progress with a nice solar image[6].

    Even Forbes magazine has a solar update[7].

    Sunspot numbers for January 6 - 12 were 35, 38, 31, 36, 38, 51, and 68, with a mean of 42.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 93.7, 107.3, 102.4, 102.1, 102.2, 100, and 103.2, with a mean of 101.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 14, 10, 6, 5, and 4, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 9, 7, 4, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.1.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[8] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[9] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[10] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[11] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    Instructions[13] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[14] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI
    [3] https://bit.ly/3KahWmI
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Fr4B66
    [5] https://youtu.be/AEhz4zfxre4
    [6] https://bit.ly/3K8HK2O
    [7] https://bit.ly/3qp0Olo
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [14] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 21 13:23:40 2022
    01/21/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar and geomagnetic activity increased this week. The average daily sunspot number was up by 52 points, rising from 42.4 to 94.4. The sunspot number peaked at 120 last Saturday, January 15.

    Average daily solar flux went from 101.6 to 112, peaking at 119.4 on Sunday, January 16. Average daily planetary A index rose from 6.1 to 15.6, and average middle latitude numbers went from 4.1 to 11.3. On January 20, the daily solar flux dipped to 99.3, the first daily noon reading below 100 since January 6.

    As reported by Spaceweather.com[1], sunspot AR2929 erupted[2] at 1744 UTC on January 18 with an M1.5 class solar flare, blasting a pulse of X-rays causing a shortwave radio blackout. Another eruption occurred on January 20, producing a radio blackout[3].

    I observed the January 18 blackout while using FT8 on 10 meters to observe propagation via pskreporter.info[4]. Just before the blast, I could see my 10-meter signal reported by stations on the East Coast. Suddenly, I saw no reports. The surprising part: during that period, no local stations reported copying my signal either.

    Predicted solar flux is 95, 93, and 91 on January 21 - 23; 89 on January 24 - 26; then 92 on January 27 - 28; 90 on January 29 - 30; 95 on January 31; then 100 and 105 on February 1 - 2; 110 on February 3 - 10; 115 on February 11 - 14; then 110, 108, and 106 on February 15 - 17; 102 on February 18 - 21; 100 on February 22 - 23; 95 on February 24, and 90 on February 25 - 26. Flux values may rise to 110 after March 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10, and 12 on January 21 - 23; 8 on January 24 - 26; 5 on January 27; 10 on January 28 - 30; 5 on January 31 - February 3; then 15 and 10 on February 4 - 5; 5 on February 6 - 9; then 12, 15, 12, 18, and 10 on February 10 - 14; 5 on February 15 - 19; 8 on February 20 - 22; 5 on February 23; 10 on February 24 - 26, then back to 5 through the end of the month.

    These predicted values are updated daily[5].

    Here's the daily solar flux[6] from Penticton, British Columbia, Canada. The local noon reading is the official SFN for the day.

    This is the Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - January 20, 2022, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "We have been able to observe four to eight groups of sunspots on the Sun over the past 7 days. They are now mostly in the western hemisphere, therefore solar flux has been declining. And suddenly a bang!

    "This morning (January 20), we could observe a nice moderately sized solar flare near the northwestern limb of the solar disc. With a maximum at 0601 UTC, it caused the Dellinger effect in the Indian Ocean region for tens of minutes, followed by Type II and IV solar radio noise bursts, which confirmed the outburst of CME (but plasma cloud likely will miss Earth).

    "Now we are facing a gradual decline in solar activity. Larger geomagnetic disturbances are expected in early February again. Their more accurate prediction will depend on the further development of the sunspot groups that are now located around the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    "This is the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 21 - 27:


    o Quiet: January 22 - 23


    o Unsettled: January 21 - 22, 25 - 27


    o Active: January 24 - 25


    o Minor storm: January 24


    o Major storm: 0


    o Severe storm: 0



    "Geomagnetic activity summary: After the last active and minor storm events (at the Budkov observatory, minor storm event were recorded on January 14, 16, 18, and 19) we expect decreased to unsettled geomagnetic activity January 21 - 22 or quiet to unsettled January 22 - 23. Then, starting on Monday, January 24, other active or minor storm events are possible. At the end of the current forecast period, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions to return.

    "

    Tomas Bayer

    RWC Prague

    Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR Prague,

    Department of Geomagnetism

    Budkov Observatory (BDV)

    Here's an interesting sunspot plot[7].

    KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq), reported:

    "On Saturday, January 15, from 1346 to 1426 UTC, started hearing multiple central Mediterranean Sea stations, Italy, Greece, with others along the Adriatic Sea on SSB on 11 meters. Signal strengths deviated from fairly good to moderately strong with moderate QSB. Average distances reached up to 4X sporadic-e ranges at 4,750 miles. This was the time frame when the Global D-Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) maximum absorption attenuation reached up to 16 MHz. For the rest of the day Es conditions were dampened with higher amounts of skywave background noise."

    K7HBN (CN87) reported on January 14 via Western Washington DX Club:

    "Today's opening on 28 MHz was unique indeed. The opening was obviously enhanced by the solar wind stream from the coronal hole. What was the strangest, I heard stations from Arizona with a strong auroral component on their signals calling CQ on the same frequency as strong OH, SM, and LA stations. I can't remember ever encountering such propagation in my entire time in ham radio, and I've orbited the Sun a few times."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, reports[8]: "Our sun is getting busy."

    Sunspot numbers for January 13 - 19, were 111, 112, 120, 103, 99, 59, and 57, with a mean of 94.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 105.5, 110.2, 115.6, 119.4, 113.5, 114.5, and 105.3, with a mean of 112. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 15, 22, 19, 9, 18, and 23, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 10, 17, 16, 6, 12, and 15, with a mean of 11.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[9] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[10] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[11] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[12] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[13] website.

    Instructions[14] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[15] your reports and observations. 


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3rC6W9t
    [3] https://bit.ly/3AfyLby
    [4] http://pskreporter.info/
    [5] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
    [6] https://bit.ly/33XlFnj
    [7] https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
    [8] https://youtu.be/2eXhwDHYeeY
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 28 16:43:05 2022
    01/28/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: A new sunspot group appeared on January 20 and another on January 24, followed by two more on January 25 and one more on January 26. But, overall solar activity declined from the previous week, January 13 - 19. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 94.4 to 39.6, and average daily solar flux went from 112 to 97.6.

    On January 27 the daily sunspot number was 85, much higher than the average of 39.6 of the previous 7 days - always a good signal for increasing activity.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 on January 28 - February 4; 108 on February 5 - 6; 110 on February 7 - 8; 108 on February 9 - 10; 106, 105, 103, 101, 100, and 95 on February 11 - 16; 92 on February 17 - 18; 90 on February 19 - 21; 88, 87, 92, and 94 on February 22 - 25; 96 on February 26 - 28; 98 and 100 on March 1 - 2; 105 on March 3 - 4; then 110 on March 5, and 108 on March 6 - 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, and 10 on January 28 - 30; 5 on January 31 - February 3; 15 and 10 on February 4 - 5; 5 on February 6 - 9; 12, 15, and 12 on February 10 - 12; 5 on February 13 - 19; 8 on February 20 - 23; 5, 12, and 10 on February 24 - 26; 5 on February 27 - March 2; then 15 and 10 on March 3 - 4, and 5 on March 5 - 8.

    Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - January 27, 2022," from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    Since the end of last November, fluctuations in the level of solar activity within the 27-day periodicity have been more regular, which contributes to the success of the forecasts. This also applies to the occurrence of coronal holes, so predictions of Earth's magnetic field activity are also more accurate (including the next recurrent geomagnetic disturbance, which we expect on or about February 4). The overall level of solar activity is rising faster than long-term forecasts suggest, so it can be assumed that the maximum of the current 11-year cycle will be higher than the previous one.

    Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 28 - February 3:


    o Quiet January 28, January 31-February 3


    o Unsettled January 29-31


    o Active January 28-29, February 3-4


    o Minor storm February 4


    o Major storm 0


    o Severe storm 0



    The geomagnetic activity summary:

    Friday, January 28, we expect quiet conditions. Then, starting Saturday, January 29, we expect an unsettled - to - active period ending by January 31. At the start of February, we expect quiet conditions until Thursday, February 3. Around February 3 - 4, we expect a new active episode, which could reach a minor storm level. - Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory.

    On January 16, a ham in Seattle reported:

    "Amazing auroral opening on 10 meters Friday at 2100-2230 UTC, CW and SSB. Northern Europe only, GM, DL, SP, UA1, EW, OZ, LA, SM, and best signals were from OH. Very unusual and first time Western Washington [saw a] big opening to EU in years, and it was worked by several W7s. DX Maps showed lots of lines over the North Pole, very late night in Scandinavia.

    I often ignore stories from British tabloids, but this one[1] seems not to be overly alarmist.

    Regarding rising activity vs forecasts, back in ARLP002 we included this link[2].

    WA7AA responded (edited):

    "They went on to say sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15 straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021 was the highest in 5 years and more than twice the value forecast by the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.

    "This isn't the first place I've seen this claim from the NOAA/NASA prediction panel, and I am wondering if you have any contacts in that group to ask them for some clarification and explanation. There are several problems with this 'over - performance' claim in the link above. The first is that the graph on that link places the last solar minimum several months after the actual minimum that occurred in November 2019. That alone can skew any subsequent analysis and make it prone to a misinterpretation.

    "The next thing is the graph shows the length of their predicted cycle 25 as 14 years long! This is nowhere near any cycle length in recorded history that, as we all know, averages to around 11 years. No one can even predict a cycle length, so where did they get this from?

    "And finally, their predicted cycle graph is a smooth one - peak cycle (slow rising slopes as a result), while most cycles so far have been dual peak cycles (steeper slopes and a sort of a plateau as a result).

    "Once you add all three of these errors into the observation, it is easy to make a claim that the Cycle 25 is over - performing the predictions ('twice the value') made before it started, that generally placed it in the same strength as Cycle 24 within the 5 - 10% margin.

    "However, when the curve is adjusted to start in November 2019, when it's compressed to the average 11 years length and tweaked to a double peak graph (in other words, more or less carbon copied the Cycle 24 graph), it quickly becomes obvious that the Cycle 25 is so far following the last cycle curve almost exactly, insignificantly higher at 3 - 4 spots per month. A recent cycle comparison[3] confirms this observation. I am by no means an expert in propagation predictions, but it just seems weird that anyone connected to NOAA and/or NASA would make such an error and proceed to stick to it for so long. Am I missing something here? Was this a bad case of wishful thinking on their part? I would like to know what their explanation is."

    Jon, N0JK, reported:

    "A major sporadic-E opening on 6 meters took place in the 2022 ARRL January VHF Contest on Saturday afternoon January 15. Starting around 2100 UTC, stations in Florida appeared in Kansas. The opening grew and spread, and by 2300 UTC 6 meters was open to the entire southeast. I received a PSK flag from ZF1EJ and logged XE2X (EL06). The opening then spread east to Ohio and north to Minnesota (N0JCF, EN35). KF0M (EM17) worked Cuba and almost completed with HI3AA. The opening faded at 0046 UTC with K3VN (EL98) last in my log. I was operating single-operator portable 10 W with an MFJ-9406 and a two-element Yagi. Cold and windy! The next morning, a short 6 meter Es opening to Mexico with XE2YWH (DL92) worked at 1435 UTC. All contacts FT8.

    "The sporadic-E was a real treat for the January VHF Contest."

    Here's a link to a video report[4] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for January 20 - 26 were 60, 23, 22, 22, 26, 53, and 71, with a mean of 39.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 99.3, 97.3, 95.2, 93.5, 95.2, 100.9, and 101.8, with a mean of 97.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 10, 8, 4, 13, and 10, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3, 10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[5] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[6] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[7] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[8] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[9] website.

    Instructions[10] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[11] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3s0kThs
    [2] https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI
    [3] http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
    [4] https://youtu.be/vsLIY2Y0xQs
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 4 11:59:50 2022
    02/04/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Our sun was much more active over the past week, with average daily sunspot number more than doubling from 39.6 in the previous week to 81.3 in the current January 27 - February 2 reporting week.

    Geomagnetic indicator average daily Planetary A index changed from 8.3 to 10.1, while average middle latitude A index was unchanged at 6.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the near term is 126, 130, and 125 on February 4 - 6; 120 on February 7 - 10; 128 on February 11 - 12; 125 on February 13 - 14; 120 on February 15 - 17; 128 on February 18 - 21; 125 on February 22 - 25; 128 on February 26; 132 on February 27 - 28; 135 on March 1 - 3; 125 on March 4 - 7; 128 on March 8 - 11, and 125 on March 12 - 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20, 18, and 10 February 4 - 7; 5 on February 8 - 10; 8 on February 11; 5 on February 12 - 16; then 10, 12, 8, and 5 on February 17 - 20; 10, 8, 5, and 8 on February 21 - 24; 12, 8, 5, and 8 on February 25 - 28; 10, 5, and 5 on March 1 - 3; 20 and 12 on March 4 - 5; 5 on March 6 - 8; then 12 and 8 on March 9 - 10; 5 on March 11 - 15, and 10, 12, and 8 on March 16 - 18.

    This is the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, February 3, 2022" from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "The solar radio flux of 130 and the daily sunspot number up to 100 at the end of January, compared to the equal heliographic length in past solar rotations, showed the unreliability of 27-day quasi-periodicity as the guideline for predictions. The M1 solar flare in AR2936 on January 29 was also a surprise because of the magnetic configuration. On the contrary, it was no surprise that the accompanied LDE, which triggered halo CME, was followed by an intensification of the solar wind and an increase in Earth's geomagnetic field activity. A major storm was expected on February 2, but it arrived a day later and included major changes in the parameters of Earth's ionosphere in the form of its positive phase, around 1200 UTC."

    Here is an interesting new Solar Cycle 25 update[1], thanks to K9LA and K1HTV.

    Via Spaceweather.com[2] comes this comment from Dr. Ron Turner of ANSER Research Institute in Virginia, who thinks it may be too early to expect a strong Solar Cycle 25.

    This graph[3] shows why Turner is skeptical.

    "Solar Cycle 25 is doing something interesting. It is mimicking old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24)," he said. "I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 (the red dashed line) and overlaid them on SC25 [and] they're an almost perfect match."

    This is significant because Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the weakest solar cycle in a century. Its hot start did not lead to a strong maximum. Turner isn't saying that Solar Cycle 25 will likewise be a dud. But, rather, "these early sunspot numbers are not enough to guarantee a strong cycle."

    David Moore shared this article[4] in Science Daily about a big solar event more than 9,000 years ago that was discovered via ice core analysis.

    Here's an update[5] from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    Sunspot numbers for January 27 - February 2 were 85, 77, 74, 70, 100, 88, and 75, with a mean of 81.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 107.1, 113.4, 125.3, 129.6, 129.5, 128.6, and 128.2, with a mean of 123.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 17, 10, 10, 7, and 12, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3, 10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle
    [2] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/03feb22/sunspotcounts.png
    [4] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220126144204.htm
    [5] https://youtu.be/QgJEkh1rNZg
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 11 14:18:46 2022
    02/11/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Three new sunspot groups appeared on February 3, 6, and 8. Average daily sunspot number rose slightly during the February 3 - 9 reporting week, from 81.3 last week to 83.9. Average daily solar flux also increased modestly, from 123.1 to 126.

    Solar flares and geomagnetic storms this week raised the average daily planetary A index from 10.1 to 14.4, and the middle latitude A index - measured at one location in Virginia - went from 6.4 to 9.6.

    At 0523 UTC on February 11, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning. "A recurrent coronal hole is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with possible minor storm periods on 12 to 13 February."

    A geomagnetic storm on February 4 brought down 40 of 49 just-launched low-Earth orbit Starlink satellites, even though the storm was not especially robust. But February 3-4, the high latitude college A index measured near Fairbanks, Alaska, was 48 and 61, a level that assures the appearance of aurora borealis.

    NN4X shared this Business Insider article[1] on the loss of the Starlink satellites.

    We typically think of geo-storms as a negative event in terms of HF radio propagation, but not always. Sometimes, signals propagate by bouncing off the aurora.

    In this vein, K7SS commented at 2030 UTC on February 10 in an email posting titled, "EU aurora on 10 meter CW." He said:

    "Weak OH, SM, UA, opening now. All aurora-sounding. Point 'em north."

    "All aurora-sounding" refers to the unusual garbled fluttery sounds of auroral propagation, best taken advantage of by pointing antennas north to propagate signals via the aurora.

    W7YED responded:

    "I saw two SM3s at around 2100 UTC calling CQ on 10-meter FT8. One worked an XE, lasted about 5 mins then went away. And now back to the regularly scheduled Caribbean and SA stations. Things are looking up on 10."

    So far this year, sunspots were visible on every day. Last year, 64 days had no sunspots, and in 2020, 208 days were spotless, according to Spaceweather.com[2].

    Predicted solar flux values for the near term are 118 and 116 on February 11 - 12; 112 on February 13 - 14; 110 on February 15 - 16; 112 on February 17; 115 on February 18 - 19; 118 on February 20; 120 on February 21 - 23; 125 on February 24 - 25; 120 on February 26 - March 4; 115 and 122 on March 5 - 6; 120 on March 7 - 9; 110 on March 10 - 11; 115 on March 12 - 18; 118 on March 19, and 120 on March 20 - 22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 22, and 25 on February 11 - 14; 20, 12, 8, 10, and 8 on February 15 - 19; 5, 10, 8, 5, 8, and 12 on February 20 - 25; 8 on February 26 - 27; 5 on February 28 - March 2; 12, 10, 15, and 10 on March 3 - 6; 5 on March 7 - 11; 25 and 20 on March 12 - 13; 5 on March 14 - 15, and 10, 12, and 8 on March 16 - 18.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, offered this commentary:

    "I would like to return once again to the solar flare M1 in AR2936 on January 29, accompanied by LDE[3], which caused the halo CME. The CME was met near Earth by 49 Starlink satellites launched on February 3 into low-Earth orbit from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. As a result, 40 of them did not reached planned orbit and then burned up in the atmosphere in a controlled manner. The cost to launch the Falcon 9 is $30 million, one satellite is $500,000, total damage to Elon Musk = $50 million.

    "Solar activity in Solar Cycle 25 is rising faster than most models anticipated. More accurate predictions of further developments are complicated by the fact that there are several irregularly evolving active areas on the Sun at the same time. For this reason too, we cannot rely on the 27-day periodicity, which is otherwise a good tool for compiling forecasts. If we take advantage of it, we can expect the next major disturbance on 13 - 14 February. Things can be expected to calm after February 16, with quiet days after February 19. Solar flux should not fall below 100 or rise too much above 130."

    Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has posted this update[4].

    N8II reported from West Virginia on February 7:

    "I was active in the Vermont, Minnesota, and British Columbia QSO parties this past weekend. Conditions were excellent to Minnesota on 20, with loud signals from 1500 UTC until about 2230 UTC (our sunset was 2237 UTC). Even the mobiles were very good copy, many quite loud on 20. Forty meters suffered from D/E layer absorption, with almost all Minnesota signals below my noise level 1700 - 2030 UTC. Eighty was open well before Minnesota sunset, with workable signals at 2300 UTC and some very good signals by 2330 UTC. 

    "Fifteen and even ten meters were open to British Columbia both weekend days. The peak of 10-meter propagation was in the 1900 UTC hour both days, with Saturday being better on both 20 and 15. Several British Columbia signals on 10 meters were greater than S-9 on Saturday. Many US Rocky Mountain-area and west coast signals were on the band as well. Twenty-meter conditions were excellent Saturday, 1600 - 2400 UTC, but 15 and 10 were slow to open Sunday finally opening around 1830 UTC.

    "Propagation to Vermont was about as expected, some loud signals 0000 - 0030 UTC on 40 and mostly loud stations on 75/80. Signals on 160 were fairly weak Friday PM. There was no miracle Es opening like last year, 20 meters was open on backscatter only, and W1JXN was worked on 15-meter CW backscatter just above the noise.

    "Sunday morning, February 6 saw a good 10-meter opening to southern Europe. I had an SSB run 1515 - 1550 UTC, working Croatia, Switzerland, Spain, and many French and Italian stations. Many signals were over S-9. Twelve meters in the past few days has been open each day, at least to southern Europe.

    "Last Friday, February 4, 10 meters was wide open to New Caledonia, 2130 - 2245 UTC. I easily logged FK8IK on both CW and SSB, and FK4QX on SSB. This followed loud signals from the western US."

    Here are some images[5] of recent sunspot regions.

    This study[6] offers an explanation for unusual motions in solar flares, oddly referred to as "solar flames."

    Sunspot numbers for February 3 - 9 were 84, 87, 91, 83, 78, 86, and 78, with a mean of 83.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 126.5, 129.6, 125.9, 123.6, 127.2, 123.1, and 125.9, with a mean of 126. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 32, 12, 15, 7, 5, and 3, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 18, 10, 12, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 9.6.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[11] website.

    Instructions[12] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[13] your reports and observations. 


    [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-lost-starlink-satellites-orbit-geomagnetic-solar-storm-space-launch-2022-2
    [2] http://spaceweather.com/
    [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/space-weather-glossary
    [4] https://youtu.be/uY3TMaExHkg
    [5] http://www.hkastroforum.net/viewtopic.php?f=28&p=321591
    [6] https://bit.ly/3uHX5SI
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 18 14:37:21 2022
    02/18/2022

    A sunspot group emerged on February 10, two more on February 11, two more on February 14 and three more on February 16, when the daily sunspot number rose to 111 - the highest value for this reporting week and well above the weekly average of 75.3. The average for the previous week was 83.9. On February 17 another new sunspot region emerged, but the daily sunspot number declined from 111 to 103.

    The 111 sunspot number was the highest since the end of 2021, when sunspot numbers went as high as 147 following a few days of no sunspots at all.

    On Thursday, February 17, the Daily Sun image on Spaceweather.com[1] showed seven sunspot groups, the whole earth-facing side of the sun peppered with spots.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 126 to 110.1. Average daily planetary A index went from 14.4 to 13, and average daily middle latitude A index declined just 1.3 points to 8.3.

    Why do we care about sunspot numbers? Because high values correlate with greater density in the ionosphere, which gives us better propagation at higher frequencies. Sixty-four years ago, sunspot numbers were so high that hams saw worldwide around-the-clock propagation on 10 meters. Sunspot numbers were never that high before or since. That was the peak of Solar Cycle 19. Newly licensed hams thought it would always be like that. It never was.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month was downgraded from February 16 - 17 forecasts, and is 95 on February 18 - 19; 98 on February 20; 102 on February 21 - 23; 105 on February 24; 108 on February 25 - 27; 110 on February 28; 115 on March 1 - 2; 112 and 110 on March 3 - 4; 108 on March 5 - 8; 105 on March 9 - 11; 103 on March 12 - 13; 100 on March 14; 98 on March 15 - 16; 102 on March 17 - 19; 104 on March 20 - 22, 108 on March 23 - 26, and 110 on March 27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 18 - 19; 18, 15, and 12 on February 20 - 22; 10, 8, and 10 on February 23 - 25; 15 and 10 on February 24 - 25; 5 on February 26 - March 2; 12, 15, 10, and 8 on March 3 - 6; 5 on March 7 - 10; 15, 12, and 10 on March 11 - 13; 5 on March 14 - 18; 8, 5, 12, 15, 18, and 10 on March 19 - 24, and 5 on March 25 - 29.

    Here's the "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere" for February 10, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Solar activity has reached a moderate level, including occurrence of M-class flares. The activity on the far side of the sun was greater, as evidenced by CME observations beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk, which do not affect Earth's ionosphere.

    "We observed exceptionally poor conditions of ionospheric propagation on 80 and, especially, 160 meters on the night of February 14-15, UTC. The cause was a several-day decrease in solar radiation (X-ray level), accompanied by a decrease in the speed of the solar wind, as a source of ionization by particles. The improvement started on the morning of February 15, beginning from the eastern direction when the ionosphere was irradiated by the sun again.

    "Solar activity is expected to rise only slowly in the coming days, reaching a flat quasi-peak maximum in early March. The activity of Earth's magnetic field should increase irregularly and only slightly again on February 20 - 21 and 24 - 25 (February 22 - 24, according to other sources), causing only the usual fluctuations in propagation conditions."

    NN4X reported on February 16:

    "I was a little late to the party on 10 meters, having started checking propagation on 12 meters first.

    "Conditions were excellent, easily the best 10-meter long-path opening I've ever seen. "I was fortunate to have FT8 QSOs with these stations: BF7IEJ (1304 UTC); YC9AUB (1306 UTC); YC1THS (1319 UTC); YC7UDD (1346 UTC); VK3EW (1419 UTC); JK1OZS (1344 UTC); VR2CH (1307 UTC); VR2XYL (1305 UTC), and VR2VAZ (1339 UTC). I also worked VR2CH on 10-meter long path on February 15.

    "While monitoring FT8 on 12 meters around 1905 UTC this afternoon, with the antenna pointed 90°, looking for African stations, I noticed YB0DJ decode.

    "I proceeded to work him, and he was gone shortly thereafter. I've never seen a long path opening so far away from sunrise to sunset. Using PSKR, we can see at least some of the extent of that opening (note that the daylight/darkness shading is for the time I ran the search)."

    N0JK (EM28) reported on February 17:

    "A sporadic-E opening occurred on February 13 UTC. I logged W4IMD (EM84) on 50.313 MHz at 0141 UTC, the only Es station worked on 6 meters. Then, on 17 meters I worked KC5LT (EM86) at 0228 UTC on FT8 on Es. Sporadic-E openings are rare in February."

    Check out this video[2] about ViewProp, a promising new propagation analysis tool. There is also an email list[3]. - Thanks to The ARRL Contest Update.

    Reader "Neil J." shared this[4].

    The Las Cruces Sun News included this article[5]: "NMSU astronomy professors welcome new robotic system at Apache Point Observatory.

    "

    Sunspot numbers for February 10 - 16 were 78, 86, 54, 53, 72, 73, and 111, with a mean of 75.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 118, 113.1, 110.5, 105.4, 106.5, 114.3, and 102.9, with a mean of 110.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 20, 13, 15, 8, 5, and 9, with a mean of 13. Middle latitude A index was 12, 12, 10, 9, 6, 3, and 6, with a mean of 8.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] http://www.spaceweather.com/
    [2] https://youtu.be/McUB2eY5atk
    [3] https://groups.io/g/viewprop
    [4] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/
    [5] https://bit.ly/33v3x4i
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Thu Mar 3 22:16:28 2022
    02/25/2022

    New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20 and 21, but solar activity declined, even though sunspots were seen covering the sun every day.

    Average daily sunspot number declined 21 points from 75.3 last week to 54.3 in the current reporting week, February 17-23. Average daily solar flux was down nearly 15 points from 110.1 to 95.4. On Thursday, February 24 the decline in sunspot numbers continued to 23, 31.3 points below the average in the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and average daily middle latitude A index was off by one point to 7.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 25, 100 on February 26-27, 105 on February 28 through March 2, 110 on March 3-4, 108 on March 5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13, 100 on March 14, 98 on March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March 20-22, 108 on March 23-26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, then 112 and 110 on March 30-31, then 108 on April 1-4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on February 25-26, 8 on February 27 through March 3, 10 on March 4-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13, 5 on March 14-18, then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15 and 10 on March 19-24, 5 on March 25-29, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 2, and 5 on April 3-6.

     

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, February 24, 2022 from OK1HH: "Solar activity gradually declined to very low levels with a slight chance of Class C flares. The solar wind speed and particle density fluctuate irregularly. The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm levels. Total solar radiation, accompanied by an irregular occurrence of enhanced geomagnetic activity caused a subsequent gradual decrease to overall below-average shortwave propagation conditions. A slight improvement can be expected in connection with seasonal changes with the approaching spring equinox."

     

    I regularly check propagation on ten meters using FT8, low power, and a modest full wave end fed wire antenna that is mostly indoors on the second floor of my home. Sometimes I will see my coverage on pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[1] concentrated in an area 2000-2300 miles away in Georgia and South Carolina, which is what I saw on February 24 around 1830 UTC. Twenty-four hours earlier I saw only two reception reports, none in the USA, with one station down in central Mexico and the other way down in Southern Argentina around 53 degrees south latitude. Very odd, but this being ten meters, soon the coverage changed, and I saw coverage across the East Coast.

    Using this same modest antenna on 40 meters, where it is one quarter wave long, at 0330 UTC on February 25 I see coverage all over the United States, but only one station reporting my signal in Europe, at -17 dB from IZ1CRR in JN35TD.

    On his QRZ.com page he says he is a shortwave listener, and not to call him on FT8 as he is listening only.

    Even if you are not an FT8 operator, you could use pskreporter.info[2] to discover propagation paths on different bands from your local area by searching for signals received from your grid square over the previous 15 minutes. This assumes there are other stations in your grid square active at the time.

    In grid square CN87 in my area, there seem to be active local stations on at all times on every band. You should probably look for stronger signals with positive signal levels if you plan to use CW or SSB.

     

    Solar eruption in the news: https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/[3]

     

    Article about instability of sunspots: https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4[4]

     

    A blog post about recent solar events: https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa[5]

     

    New Maui solar telescope: https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb[6]

     

    February 21 update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE[7]

     

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

     

    Sunspot numbers for February 17 through 23, 2022 were 103, 53, 51, 49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7, 93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and 4, with a mean of 7.3.

     

     


    [1] http://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [2] http://pskreporter.info
    [3] https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4
    [5] https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa
    [6] https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb
    [7] https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 4 20:16:46 2022
    03/04/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was weaker over the February 24 - March 2 reporting week, with the average daily sunspot number weakening from 54.3 to 44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5.

    Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4; 108 on March 5 - 7; 106, 104, and 100 on March 8 - 10; 99 on March 11 - 13; 98 on March 14; 95 on March 15 - 16; 96, 97, 98, and 99 on March 17 - 20; 100 on March 21 - 22; 101 and 100 on March 23 - 24; 102 on March 25 - 26; 99 and 102 on March 27 - 28; 105 on March 29 - 31; 102 on April 1 - 2, 101 on April 3 - 4; 100 on April 5 - 6, and 99 on April 7 - 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4 - 6; 10 on March 7; 5 on March 8 - 10; 10, 12, 8, 5, and 8 on March 11 - 15; 5 on March 16 - 17; 10 on March 18; 15 on March 19 - 21; 7 on March 22 - 24; 5 and 10 on March 25 - 26; 12 on March 27 - 28; 8 on March 29 - 30; 12 on March 31; 15 on April 1 - 2; 5 on April 3 - 6, and 18, 15, and 8 on April 7 - 9.

    Here's the weekly commentary from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might have surprised us if it were not for the information about the increased eruptive activity on the far side of the sun. The far-side sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft, starting with the huge far-side explosion, when the spacecraft recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the late hours of February 15. One day later, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we experienced only occasional Class C eruptions. Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly, and attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for HF propagation began to improve in early March, but this was mainly due to seasonal changes."

    The article[1] "DKIST, Our Biggest Eye on the Sun, is Ready to Bring the Science," appears on the SyFy.com site.

    Also, check out[2] the solar orbiter from the European Space Agency.

    Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2:

    "Wow! 10 meters long path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing today! I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143 UTC when I first checked band conditions. Operating FT8 from FN32 between 1310 GMT and 1348 GMT, I worked BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC, VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI and 12 other stations in Japan.

    Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is Wow!"

    The subject of an article[3] on Science Alert is "Stunning Loops of Plasma Observed on the Sun May Not Be What We Thought."

    Here's a 2020 study[4] regarding the terminator event, "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude," on Springer Link.

    Now, the authors have announced[5] "The Termination Event has Arrived" - the terminator event between sunspot Cycles 24 and 25.

    Sunspot numbers for February 24 - March 2 were 23, 22, 22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 92.3, 96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3, with a mean of 5.6

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[6] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[7] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check out this propagation page[8] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[9] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[10] website.

    Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[12] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6
    [2] https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter
    [3] https://bit.ly/35OpX0V
    [4] https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU
    [5] https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 11 16:31:52 2022
    03/11/2022

    The K7RA Solar Update

    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: On March 11 at 0431 UTC, Australia's Space Forecast Centre issued this warning: "A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 March, and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022."

    We observed an active sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked on Saturday, March 5, when Alaska's high latitude college A index reached 42.

    Again this week, sunspots covered the sun every day. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11 - 12; 115 on March 13; 110 on March 14 - 16; 105 on March 17; 100 on March 18 - 21; then 101 and 103 on March 22 - 23; 104 on March 24 - 27; then 110, 115, and 116 on March 28 - 30; 118 on March 31 - April 1; 120 on April 2; 116 on April 3 - 4; then 115 and 112 on April 5 - 6; 110 on April 7 - 9, 108, 102, 98, and 99 on April 10 - 13, and 100 on April 14 - 17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11; 5 on March 12 - 13; 10, 18, 15, 5, and 8 on March 14 - 18; then 12 on March 19 - 20 15 on March 21 7 on March 22 - 24; then 5, 10, and 8 on March 25 - 27; 5 on March 28 - 29; then 10, 12, 25, 20, and 10 on March 30 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 6; then 15, 20, and 12 on April 7 - 9; 5 on April 10 - 13; 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15 - 16.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH, wrote, "The power density of solar radio noise at a wavelength of 10.7 centimeters - more briefly referred to as "solar flux" - remains above 110 for a week. Because we see two more active areas beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk (thanks to the STEREO Ahead satellite), solar flux should stay that way for another week.

    "The concurrence of increased solar activity with seasonal changes during the approaching equinox results in improved conditions for short-wave ionospheric propagation.

    "Occasional irregular occurrences of a slight increase in geomagnetic activity (as was the case on March 5 - 6) cause only a slight deterioration. Possible recurrent disturbance is expected until the beginning of April, probably already in its first days."

    Russ Hunt, WQ3X, wrote on March 4: "Yesterday I heard WA2BOT on 10 meter FT8 working DX on the long path and aimed my beam due south. In just over a half hour's time I worked 33 JAs, two DUs, and VR2XYL. I had a pileup six deep at times while using 250 W and a five-element Yagi at 50 feet. It was probably the most exciting time I've had in the last 20 years. Today I worked two more VR2s and three JAs, also long path, just after sunrise."

    A few hours later he wrote, "During the middle of the day we get some VK/ZLs starting around 3 PM local time. But try sunrise and sunset and you will find a lot of DX.

    "I hear the 6s and 7s working a lot of Asia in the evening. Here we get EU, Africa, and the Middle East in the mornings. I've done WAC about four or five times a week, but now running out of new stations to work."

    Robert Strickland, KE2WY, asked about a good source for the latest daily sunspot numbers, and I sent him to this site[1].

    On March 10, N9II sent some observations of last week's ARRL International DX Contest (SSB). "I operated single band 15 meters in the ARRL DX contest but made a few QSOs on other bands. Twenty was open well to Africa and south in the 0100 UTC hour Saturday, some very loud Caribbean signals. Ten was open for many hours to the south. Some booming signals even from low-power stations in Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos, as well as many high-power stations such as J68HZ on St Lucia, PJ4G on Bonaire, and PJ2T on Curacao.

    "On 15, a disturbance and slightly low solar flux made for some challenging conditions to Asia and northern Europe.

    "Saturday evening the disturbance rendered Japan nearly completely closed, with Sunday evening conditions fair with most signals less than S-9.

    "I made 600 15-meter QSOs, working 86 DXCC entities.

    "On 10 CW starting at 1414 UTC on March 8, I worked three new ones in a row: 7Q6M in Malawi, 5X1NA in Uganda, and JY5HX in Jordan.

    "Then on 10 SSB, Dov, 4Z4DX, in Israel. On 10 CW, V26K Antigua, and OA1F Peru.

    "Later on 17 CW V4/G0TLE St. Kitts, then topping off with E51BQ South Cook Islands on 10 SSB at 2325 UTC.

    "On 12 meter CW on March 9 at 1550 UTC I worked V26K. I called CQ on 10 SSB at 1557 UTC and was called by Spain, then Francisco, TT8FC, in Chad, ZS1PPY in South Africa, then 3B8HE in Mauritius! March 10, featured excellent high-band propagation with the solar flux climbing to 127. I heard Indonesia peaking at S-8 on 15 SSB at 1340 UTC, then worked 4L1AN in Georgia at 1344 UTC (new) and VU2DSI India at 1353 UTC.

    "Turning to 10 SSB, I found Selki, S01WS, Western Sahara, and CU1EZ in the Azores for #100 on 10 SSB. Then at 1551 UTC for the next hour, 10 blew wide open to Europe starting with Bulgaria, Italy, and Hungary.

    "Several stations with simple end-fed wires were S-9, and the loudest signals were S-9 + 20 dB or a bit stronger. This was one of the best openings all winter, but others were more widespread farther north."

    Here is an email list[2] for operators of, or anyone interested in, HF beacons.

    The vernal equinox arrives in just over a week from now, at 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20. That's when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar radiation over both southern and northern hemispheres - good for HF propagation. It is the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere, and the first day of fall in the southern.

    Sunspot numbers for March 3 - 9 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84, 93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 110.9, 113.1, 120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[3] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[4] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[5] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[6] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[7] website.

    Instructions[8] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    Share[9] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
    [2] https://www.freelists.org/webpage/hfbeacons
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] http://k9la.us/
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 18 16:49:21 2022
    03/18/2022

    Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports: We saw plenty of sunspot activity this week, along with numerous solar flares. A confounding indicator was a higher average solar flux but lower average sunspot numbers. We expect to see these parameters track together, but that isn't always the case.

    The average daily sunspot number went from 87.4 last week to 74.6 in the latest reporting period, March 10 - 16.

    The average daily solar flux increased from 115.5 to 119.

    A new sunspot group appeared on March 12, another on March 13, and two more on March 14. The total sunspot area (expressed in millionths of the solar disc) declined throughout the week, starting at 1,170 on March 10, then 1,080, 1,040, 940, 670, 490, and 290. So, the decline continued even through days that revealed new sunspots.

    March 13 had the greatest geomagnetic disturbance, with the middle latitude A index at 30, the planetary A index at 40, and Alaska's college A index at 65. The A index is calculated from the K index, updated every 3 hours. In Alaska, the K was 0 in the first three readings, at 0000, 0300, and 0600 UTC, before jumping dramatically to 5, 7, 7, and 5 for the rest of the day. The K index is logarithmic, and 7 is a very big number, indicating a geomagnetic storm.

    The solar flux prediction peaks at 125 on April 6 - 8, but starting today, the predicted flux is 108 on March 18 - 19; 95 on March 20 - 26; 100 on March 27 - 28; 110 on March 29 - 30; 115 on March 31; then 120, 115, and 120 on April 1 - 3; 115 on April 4 - 5; 125 on April 6 - 8; 120 on April 9 - 11; 115 on April 12 - 14; 110 on April 15 - 17; 100 on April 18; then 95 on April 19 - 22, and 100 on April 23 - 24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on March 18 - 19; then 15, 12, and 8 on March 20 - 22; 5 on March 23 - 25; 10 and 8 on March 26 - 27; 5 on March 28 - 30; 10, 25, 15, and 8 on March 31 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 15; 12 on April 16 - 17; 8 on April 18; then 5 on April 19 - 21, and 10 and 8 on April 22 - 23.

    The vernal equinox will occur at 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20 - a good sign for HF propagation as we move from winter to spring conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Undoubtedly, the most dramatic phenomenon of the past 7 days was the arrival of a CME [coronal mass ejection] on March 13, which broke away from the sun on March 10 - 11. It caused a medium [G2] geomagnetic storm. In its positive phase, [MUF] values increased during the UTC afternoon until evening, while the overall ionospheric propagation of decameter waves improved overall. In the negative phase that followed on March 14 - 15, they deteriorated significantly. A return to normal has been observed since March 16.

    "A CME could do more than just ignite the bright aurora borealis. It also lowered the level of cosmic rays. A neutron monitor at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, saw a sharp decline in cosmic rays shortly after the CME arrived. It's called the 'Forbush Decline,' named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a cloud of coronal matter pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. The cosmic rays fell sharply on March 13, then rose sharply at noon on March 14, then fell sharply again. We attribute this fluctuation to the more complex structure of the CME cloud. The cosmic rays remained depressed for 2, partly to 4, days after the arrival of the CME.

    "The consequences of the coming of a CME in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere were now, near the vernal equinox, more pronounced than they would have been at any other time of year."

    I (K7RA) was experimenting with FT8 and PSKreporter[1] on Friday, March 11, on 10 meters and noticed at 2145 UTC that my low-power signal (with a very modest antenna) was heard over a narrow arc running from northern Virginia and central Texas, plus reports from two stations in New Zealand and several in South America. Fifteen minutes later, the only report was from K1HTV in Virginia. By 2224 UTC, the only reports were from two local western Washington stations, at 4 and 54 miles away.

    On March 15, using the same setup on 10 meters at 1651 UTC, the only station outside the local area hearing me was XE1ACA, 2,344 miles away.

    Often when coverage is marginal on 10 meters, 12 meters will be open.

    At 1730 UTC on 12 meters, I was heard over a broad arc of stations 1,800 - 2,400 miles away, running from New Hampshire to south Texas, plus XE2BCS and XE1GK at 1,757 and 2,003 miles, and NH6Y in Hawaii at 2,654 miles. That arc of coverage was only 600 miles wide.

    On March 14, VE1VDM reported unstable 10-meter conditions. "As of 1600 UTC [1 PM local] today, I have not had one RBN report on 28.173 MHz, nor one WSPR report on 28.126.130 MHz," he said. "The band has really tanked here in Nova Scotia."

    Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on March 13:

    "Larry, N0LL (EM09), decoded a number of South American stations on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 0040 UTC March 13. These included CE3SX (FF46), CE0YHF/CE3, CE2SV, and LU5FF. Larry was away from the radio when this occurred. [I] suspect an Es link to TEP [transequatorial propagation]. He then worked XE2TT (DL44) on Es at 0117 UTC. I monitored during this time frame. No South [American stations were contacted], but [I] did decode K3VN (EL98) around 0050 UTC on Es."

    Also from Jon on the same day:

    "A rare March sporadic-E opening on 6 meters [occurred on] the afternoon of March 11, from Kansas to W1, W2, W3, and W8.

    "Here in Lawrence, I worked K3ISH (FN21) and KE8FD (EN80) on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 2100 UTC, [and copied] a few others.

    "WQ0P (EM19) was in a better spot for it. He worked W1, W2, W3, W4, and W8.

    "No rare DX, but any sporadic-E opening in March is noteworthy. The month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic E of any month of the year (see: www.qsl.net/pjdyer[2]).

    "If the Es cloud had been located to the southeast [there could have been] a potential link-up with afternoon TEP. [I] did not see anyone working South America."

    A tribute[3] to Maunder - of Maunder Minimum fame - and his wife, "Astronomer couple honoured with English Heritage blue plaque," appeared in the UK's Oxford Mail.

    David Moore sent this obituary[4] of pioneering astronomer Eugene Parker - "Eugene Parker, astrophysicist namesake of NASA's Parker Solar Probe, dies at 94" - which appeared in Space.com[5].

    Check out the latest video[6] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

    Sunspot numbers for March 10 - 16 were 90, 81, 93, 64, 82, 71, and 41, with a mean of 74.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 127.1, 126.5, 124.7, 122.9, 114.9, 110.4, and 106.6, with a mean of 119. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 20, 13, 40, 14, 7, and 5, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 15, 7, 30, 13, 5, and 3, with a mean of 11.4.

    For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

    A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

    For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

    ARRL member Tad Cook, K7RA, has been writing the weekly ARRL Propagation Bulletins since 1991. Share[13] your reports and observations.


    [1] https://pskreporter.info
    [2] https://www.qsl.net/pjdyer
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ihvjVO
    [4] https://www.space.com/eugene-parker-solar-probe-scientist-dead
    [5] http://www.space.com
    [6] https://youtu.be/1VsmS6xl34s
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
    [13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 1 13:23:06 2022
    04/01/2022

    Many solar flares and CMEs occurred over the reporting week (March 24-30) but with glancing blows and near misses, it wasn't reflected in the geomagnetic indicators until Thursday, the last day in March.

    The Planetary A index reached a high for the reporting week of 19 on March 27. Average daily planetary A index rose by a modest amount from 6.3 to 10.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 33.4 to 80.1, while solar flux went from 99.9 to 132.7.

    The rising solar activity brought us a tremendous amount of 10 meter coverage. Every day I have received reports from all over North America from operators hearing my K7RA/B propagation beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

    Predicted solar flux is 150, 145, and 130 on April 1-3, 115 on April 4-5,  110 on April 6-8, then 118, 115, and 110 on April 9-11, 105 on April 12-14, 108 on April 15, 105 on April 16-19, 110 on April 20-21, 115 on April 22, 125 on April 23-26, then 123, 118 and 118 on April 27-29, then 108 on April 30 through May 2, 112 on May 3, 115 on May 4-6, and 112 on May 4, then dropping to 105 through the middle of May.

    The predicted planetary A index is 32, 10, 15 and 10 on April 1-4, 819, on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15 and 10 on April 22-24, then 5 on April 25-29, 12 and 8 on April 30 and May 1, and 5 0n May 2-15. 

     

    A report from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:  "We have a week of somewhat wilder development behind us. Its first indication were two sunspot groups on the northeastern limb of the solar disc on March 24. The second of them, region 2976 was larger.

    "Region 2975 had a more complex magnetic structure and grew gradually. A proton solar flare was observed on March 28 at 1129 UTC, accompanied by a significant increase in proton levels. And above all, it was followed by a CME heading to Earth!

    "Exactly as predicted, the arrival of the CME caused a geomagnetic disturbance on March 31. Its positive phase of development was accompanied, especially in the UTC morning hours, by a significant improvement in the shortwave propagation conditions on a global scale.

    "Another solar flare was observed in the same area on March 30 with a maximum at 1737 UTC. Although X-ray levels rose more than on March 28, followed by CME again (albeit weaker, at 1823 UT),  there is no expectation that it would be followed by a similar increase in geomagnetic activity."

     

    Angel Santana, WP3GW, of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote: "Conditions were decent for the contest last weekend. Ten meters was as good as last October but propagation is still improving, as stations were as high at 28.6 MHz, but on a great season stations would be heard beyond 29 MHz. With the new radios that have spectrum analyzers you can view this. On Sunday at 1420 UTC contacted a few European stations and even a 4X.

    When I went to 15/20 meters, I had 85 percent success in contacting the stations. Overall, I worked 324 stations and 64 DXCC entities.

    "And there are a few stations from Spain on 10 meters at 2000 UTC, which is their local 10 PM. Really big signals. Cycle 25 is definitely rising."

      

    LA4LN reports 6 meter TEP activity: "I see that stations in southern Europe are reporting contacts with southern Africa and South America, across the magnetic equator.

    "Likewise,US stations are making TEP contacts with stations in South America across the magnetic equator, with no F2 propagation possible on 50 MHz at this time, with an insufficient SFI (Solar Flux Index) for 50 MHz F2 propagation.

    Seeing more TEP 'heard & worked' between southern Europe and southern Africa on the 6 meters band, across the magnetic equator via Dxmaps.com." 

    I often see references to the "magnetic equator" but did not know what it was. This gives a good explanation: https://bit.ly/38nV2u1[1]

     

    More from LA4LN: "In last week's bulletin you comments from N0JK speculating about the first F2 openings on 50 MHz in the Solar Cycle 25.

    "It must be mentioned that the SFI has been near 100 (he reported 95), and this is most likely too low SFI to cause F2 propagation on 50 MHz, according to my experience.

    "Instead, during the last few weeks I've seen numerous reports of TEP (Trans Equatorial Propagation) on 50 MHz, with radio amateurs in mainly the southern states of USA working South America - and with radio amateurs in southern Europe working southern Africa and South America.

    "It is important to note that the TEP is aligned over the magnetic equator on Earth (not aligned over the geographic equator). TEP is well described in the ARRL literature."

     

    We normally get our 10.7 cm solar flux staight from the source, the DRAO observatory in Penticton, British Columbia: https://bit.ly/3Dur7f0[2]. But since March 18, there has been no new data, so we rely on NOAA as a secondary source, which is why we have recently presented solar flux numbers that are not resolved to 0.1 but instead are from this source, which is also our source for daily sunspot numbers: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[3]. DRAO Penticton has not answered any e-mail inquiries or phone calls, so we wait.

     

    Some of the interesting articles and images this week:

    -- https://bit.ly/3tWNqa0[4]

    --https://bit.ly/3v4D8Ej[5]

    --https://bit.ly/3LvufKd[6]

    --https://bit.ly/3LCGxRn[7]

      

    NN4X sent a Pskreporter map showing his 10 meter signal at 1710 UTC on March 29 being received all around the world, including South Africa, Europe, Southeast Asia, South America and across North America. That was just one of many, many 10 meter reports this week.

     

    An exciting new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:  https://youtu.be/SVbKQmjkqTc[8]

      

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

    Sunspot numbers for March 24 through 30, 2022 were 44, 50, 48, 97, 125, 124, and 73, with a mean of 80.1.. 10.7 cm flux was 112, 112, 119, 130, 156, 149, and 151, with a mean of 132.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 10, 7, 18, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 6, 3, 6, 11, 4, 7, and 6, with a mean of 8.1.


    [1] https://bit.ly/38nV2u1
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Dur7f0
    [3] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
    [4] https://bit.ly/3tWNqa0
    [5] https://bit.ly/3v4D8Ej
    [6] https://bit.ly/3LvufKd
    [7] https://bit.ly/3LCGxRn
    [8] https://youtu.be/SVbKQmjkqTc
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Tue Apr 19 19:15:57 2022
    04/08/2022

    Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.

    It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24-28.

    Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers, instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory led nowhere, but now the data is back online at https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC[1] .

    I had to fudge the flux value for March 31, because the value of 239.5 was obviously an error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the 10.7 cm receiver at the observatory, so I averaged the morning and afternoon readings to 149.3. The official daily flux value is always from the 2000 UTC local noon reading.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on March 31 through April 2. Average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 10 to 14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1 to 10.9.

    Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month of March and predicts even more for April. They also report that cycle 25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier predictions. A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on April 1, another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on April 5.

    The predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8-9, 105 on April 10-11, 100 on April 12-14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15-17, 125 on April 18-19, 130 on April 20-23, 140 on April 24-28, 135 on April 29-30, 130 on May 1, 120 on May 2-3, 125 on May 4-5, 120 on May 6, 115 on May 7-8, 110 on May 8-9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8-11, 5 on April 12-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22-25, 5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5 on May 3-7, then 12 and 10 on May 8-9, and 5 on May 10-16.

    Solar wind in the news: https://bit.ly/3rdXycD[2]

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. On April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.

    "The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2 and partly on April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on the night of April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation conditions on April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in solar activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.

    "In further development, we first expect a decline in solar activity. Its growth in the second half of the month will again cause an improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the development will be slightly irregular."

    Another informative video forecast from WX6SWW, Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ[3]

    WB8VLC reports from Oregon: "Another fun week on 10 meters but only SSB/CW and not much FM activity. However, the SSB/CW activity was strong with signals to South Africa, Taiwan, Philippines, Norfolk Island and Australia.

    It is interesting that I have not heard any European stations during any morning or afternoon openings to the east, just South Africa."

    A small portion of his log:

    April 3 it was New Zealand in the morning and Australia at night, followed by China and Philippines 

    2344 UTC   N7ET/DU7  28.014  CW 599 Philippines

    2340 UTC   BV1EL     28.010  CW 599 Taiwan

    2311 UTC   VK3NX    28.015  CW 599 Australia

    1900 UTC   ZS3Y      28.373  SSB 55 South Africa

    K5JRN reports on 6 meters from Austin, Texas: "Interesting conditions observed here on April 4 and 6. Using FT8 on 6 meters on 4/4/22, I worked HK3X (FJ24) in Columbia and HC1MD/2 (EI97) in Ecuador while running 30 W to an indoor dipole wrapped around a couple of bamboo tomato stakes glued end to end.

    "That same combo helped me snag HC2DR (FI07) in Ecuador today (4/6). My signals were not strong, ranging from -13 to -24 in Columbia and Ecuador. I've also been heard in Argentina and have copied several Argentinian hams, including LU9AEA (GF05), but have not yet worked an Argentinian on 6.

    "Today, I've also been heard in Uruguay by CX7CO (GF15) but have not heard any CX stations yet. Indeed, I'm not receiving anyone else on 6 except a few locals and those South American stations. The north-south paths seem like narrow pipelines."

    Speaking of "narrow pipelines," from here in the northwest I often see this on 10 and 12 meters using FT8. Monitoring pskreporter.info[4], on April 7 at 1630 UTC on 12 meters my signal was only reported by stations on the East Coast over a narrow band, all from 2296-2359 miles from me, at first only by many stations in Virginia and North Carolina, but not South Carolina.

    Later at 1645 UTC coverage expanded to Florida and Georgia, but still within that narrow mileage limit. Later by 1720 UTC reports had spread to New York, Georgia and  Florida, and the mileage range expanded slightly to 2119-2489 miles. But there was one major exception, HK3A in Bogota, Columbia at 4091 miles.

    The night before (local time) at 0220 UTC on 17 meters I was copied only into a specific area about 2300 miles away in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, then suddenly at 0232 UTC the coverage expanded to California, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and Florida.  All of this with low power and a crude end-fed indoor antenna, fed with an UnUn and autotuner.

    Thanks to KA7F for this link: https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8[5]

    Cycle 25's increasing activity is drawing the attention of the media. In this instance it is KTAR in Arizona: https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p[6]

    And more from Southgate Amateur Radio: https://bit.ly/38BbEOW[7]

    Fascinating solar phenomena: https://bit.ly/3ra65NV[8]

    EarthSky reports an exciting week for solar observers: https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/[9]

     N0JK reports: "On Saturday April 2, 2022, NOLL (EM09) I copied LU5VV, CE2SV, LU1WFU and PV8DX on 50.313 MHz FT8 TEP. I copied CE2SV on TEP and KOSIX (EN35) calling PY5CC on 50.313 MHz Es at 2109 UTC."

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More useful information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

    Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6, 2022, were 84, 109, 118, 129, 86, 75, and 61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was 149,3, 146.6, 143.3, 140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of 135.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and 8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7, 8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 10.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC
    [2] https://bit.ly/3rdXycD
    [3] https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ
    [4] http://pskreporter.info
    [5] https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8
    [6] https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p
    [7] https://bit.ly/38BbEOW
    [8] https://bit.ly/3ra65NV
    [9] https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Thu May 12 20:12:33 2022
    05/06/2022

    www.spaceweather.com[1] reported on May 4 at 0859 UTC that an M5 solar flare erupted from sunspot group AR3004, causing a shortwave radio

    blackout over the Middle East and Africa.

    Please see https://bit.ly/3vKzelk[2]

    A recent flare update:

    https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8[3]

    Solar activity was lower this week, even though we could see
    sunspots every day.

    Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 109.3 to 68.6, while
    average daily solar flux went from 156 to 120.

    Average daily geomagnetic indices were only slightly higher, with
    average planetary A index changing from 9.1 to 10.7, and middle
    latitude A index from 8 to 9.3.

    Predicted solar flux looks low for the next month, even dipping
    below 100 in early June. In fact, from Wednesday to Thursday the
    predicted solar flux for the first week of the forecast dropped
    dramatically.

    For a comparison, see this week's ARRL Letter at, http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05[4] .

    Predicted values are 118 on May 6-8, then 115, 110 and 112 on May
    9-11, then 115, 115 and 120 on May 12-14, 125 on May 15-18, 127 on
    May 19-20, then 130, 128, 125, and 122 on May 21-24, 118 on May
    25-26, then 114 and 110 on May 27-28, 105 on May 29-31, then 102 and
    100 on June 1-2, 97 on June 3-5, then 99, 102 and 108 on June 6-8,
    then 115 on June 9, 120 on June 10, and 125 on June 11-14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May
    9-12, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 13-15, 5 on May 16-19, then 12 and 8
    on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, then 8,
    15 and 8 on May 28-30, then 5 on May 31 through June 8, then 8, 1,
    and 8 on June 9-11.

    These predictions are from forecasters Housseal and Dethlefsen of
    the USAF 557th Weather Wing.

    Recent flare activity in the news:

    https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq[5]

    https://bit.ly/38YBfRO[6]

    https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX[7]

    https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM[8]

    https://bit.ly/3FhULFc[9]

    Thanks to KA3JAW for this story:

    https://bit.ly/3kLmchd[10]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere from OK1HH:

    "We have seen more of large solar flares this year, but it was
    usually by night in Europe. On April 30, the first major flare
    finally occurred during the day, thanks to which we were able to
    observe the ShortWave Fadeout (SWF) in the western part of the Old
    World. Solar X-rays caused abnormally high ionization in the
    ionospheric D region, where attenuation increased significantly. Our
    shortwave receivers fell silent at 1337 UTC.

    "The solar flare peaked at 1347 UTC, ending at 1352 UTC. Only then
    could the attenuation in the ionospheric D region begin to decline
    and signals other than those coming via ground wave gradually
    appeared. Solar activity began to rise again mainly due to active
    area No. 3004, which emerged on May 2, and grew rapidly.

    "Its magnetic structure became more complex with increased energy,
    with significant eruptions up to several times a day. In addition,
    they were often accompanied by type IV radio noise bursts, which
    indicated that the solar plasma cloud had left the Sun. As Group
    3004 is now facing approximately toward us, we can expect at least
    one of the clouds to hit Earth, causing a disturbance. Perhaps we
    will see further improvement in the shortwave propagation
    conditions, during the possible positive phase of its development."

    KA3JAW sent this report about signals heard on the 8 meter band:

    "On Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607-1632 UTC I received
    WM2XEJ in Grid Square EM82 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E.
    Distance was 670 miles (1078 km), with an azimuth of 220 degrees.

    "The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700
    MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

    "Licensed users are Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration-satellite
    service.

    "WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated
    by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia. Tom is authorized to
    operate at 400 watts of Effective Radiated Power (ERP) using CW,
    SSB, digital modes FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

    "Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna giving
    about 300 watts of ERP."

    Amateur radio has 8 meter allocations in the UK, Slovenia, Denmark,
    and South Africa.

    Here is a blog devoted to 8 meters:

    https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html[11] .

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[12] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for April 28 through May 4, 2022 were 118, 90, 50,
    36, 69, 53, and 64, with a mean of 68.6. 10.7 cm flux was 132.2,
    123.5, 119.7, 109, 111.9, 113.8, and 130.1, with a mean of 120.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 15, 18, 9, 6, 7, and 6, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 11, 10, 16, 9, 6, 7, and
    6, with a mean of 9.3.

     


    [1] https://www.spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3vKzelk
    [3] https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05
    [5] https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq
    [6] https://bit.ly/38YBfRO
    [7] https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX
    [8] https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM
    [9] https://bit.ly/3FhULFc
    [10] https://bit.ly/3kLmchd
    [11] https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [17] http://k9la.us/
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat May 14 14:17:06 2022
    05/14/2022

    We saw some evidence of sporadic-e propagation this week on 6 and 10 meters, always surprising and exciting.

    Solar activity was about the same as last week, at least going by the numbers.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly from 68.6 to 74.4, while average daily solar flux only budged from 120 to 120.3.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index shifting from 10.7 to 5, and average middle latitude numbers from 9.3 to 4.6. We listed the middle latitude A index on May 6 as 2, but that number is my own estimate. At the end of that day the last K index reading was not reported, and since the A index for the day is calculated from all the K index readings, there was no official middle latitude A index reported, so I came up with my own estimate based on available data.

    Thursday's outlook for solar flux is more optimistic than last week's prediction, with no values below 100. Expected flux values are 135 on May 13-16, then 132, 128, 126, and 120 on May 17-20, then 118, 120, 124 and 121 on May 21-24, 118 on May 25-27, 116 on May 28-31, 118 on June 1-5, then 116 and 118 on June 6-7, 120 on June 8-9, 122 on June 10-14, 118 on June 15-17, then 120, 124 and 121 on June 18-20.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 8 on May 13, 12 on May 14-15, then 14 and 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, 8 on May 28, and 5 on May 29 through June 15, a nice long quiet spell of geomagnetic stability for more than 2 weeks.

    Thursday's forecast was prepared by Trost and Housseal of the U.S. Air Force.

    OK1HH wrote: "Solar flares continue to occur, and some of them are throwing several overlapping CMEs into space. The amount of CMEs leaving the sun is large enough to make it difficult to unravel their different shapes and trajectories, which reduces the reliability of predictions. Nevertheless, the geomagnetic activity is mostly low, which can be explained by the fact that the magnetic fields above the solar surface are mostly closed.

    "An intense solar flare of class X1.5 was observed on May 10 at 1355 UT in the active region 3006 with a complex magnetic structure. Radiation from the flare ionized the Earth's atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio outage around the Atlantic Ocean, more specifically from Central Europe to the east coast of the United States (see Dellinger effect). Radio transmissions at frequencies below 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour after the eruption. 

    "Another M-flare on the afternoon of May 11 was a proton flare.

    "Another CME on May 11 came from the sunspots on the far side - one just behind the eastern limb of the Sun and the other just behind the western limb. We do not expect the solar wind around the Earth to intensify again."

    The Dellinger effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance[1]

    Here is a blackout map for the above mentioned May 10 event: https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg[2]

    More on this event:

    https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0[3]

    https://bit.ly/3NgULrX[4]

    Mystery of the bright spots: https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa[5]

    WA6LIE wrote in a message titled "TEP to Fiji": "Yesterday evening March 10 just after 0600 UTC I was getting ready to go to bed and saw 3D2AG calling CQ on 6 meter FT8. I gave him a call and we made a QSO.

    "He was decoded here in Salinas, California. CM96 for an hour and a half with no takers. Looks like the Magic band is starting to play!

    "I will go back to my saying: Gotta be in the right place at the right
    time and get lucky!  Heads up!"

    K5JRN wrote: "Today (05/07/2022) at 1601 UTC, I caught a brief 2-meter E-skip opening and worked W4AS in EL95, using FT8, 25 Watts, and an indoor mobile whip antenna. It was an 1100-mile hop from EM10, in Austin, TX, to the Miami, FL area. He was +04 here and I was -24 there, no doubt because of my low power and cross-polarization. It was a new grid for me on 2, and I'm happy to have it."

    A massive solar flare, almost: https://bit.ly/3Maqvij[6]

    Solar cycle progress update from NOAA: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [7]
    Real time geomagnetic updates: https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm[8]

    The latest Space Weather from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg [9]
    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 5 through 11, 2022 were 85, 64, 66, 89, 71, 62, and 84, with a mean of 74.4. 10.7 cm flux was 119.9, 119.2, 118.1, 119.2, 117, 115.8, and 132.9, with a mean of 120.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 6, 8, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 4, 7, 8, 2, and 5, with a mean of 4.6.

     


    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance
    [2] https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg
    [3] https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0
    [4] https://bit.ly/3NgULrX
    [5] https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa
    [6] https://bit.ly/3Maqvij
    [7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [8] https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm
    [9] https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 20 15:36:11 2022
    05/20/2022

     Solar activity was up, up, up this week, with average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 74.4 to 134.1, and average daily solar flux from 120.3 to 157.3.

    To get some perspective, I averaged the weekly averages for sunspot number and solar flux from this bulletin and the previous three, then compared them to the bulletins from one year earlier.

    A year ago, the averages for 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletins ARLP017 through ARLP020 were 28.9 for sunspot numbers and 75.9 for solar flux.  A year later, the averages are 96.6 for sunspot numbers and 138.4 for solar flux.

    This documents a substantial increase in solar activity and is another illustration of how this cycle is progressing faster than the official cycle prediction by the experts. 

    Geomagnetic indicators were higher this week. Average daily planetary A index went from 5 to 9, while middle latitude A index increased from 4.6 to 9.6, compared to the previous reporting period, which always runs from Thursday through the following Wednesday. 

    Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that big sunspot AR3014 doubled in size, and presented this movie from NASA, showing 24 hours of activity: 

    https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff[1] 

    On Thursday, Spaceweather.com presented this movie of a massive jet of plasma projecting from our Sun's southwestern limb: 

    https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe[2] 

    Predicted solar flux in Thursday's prediction begins about 8 points lower than the Wednesday forecast, at 172 on May 20, 170 on May 21-24, then a decline from 168, 166, 150, 136, and 138 on May 25-29, then the predicted values revert back to the Wednesday forecast at 140 on May 30-31, 143 on June 1-3, 140 and 136 on June 4-5, 138 on June 6-7, then 140 and 150 on June 8-9, 154 on June 10-12, 152 on June 13-14, then 150 and 148 on June 15-16, 140 on June 17-18, 145 on June 19, 142 on June 20-21, then 138 on June 22 and 136 on June 23-24. 

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 20, 8 on May 21-22, 5 on May 23-26, 15 and 8 on May 27-28, 5 on May 29 through June 9, 8 on June 10, 14 on June 11-12, 8 and 5 on June 13-14, 8 on June 15-16, 5 on June 17-19, 18 on June 20, then 15 on June 21-23, 8 on June 24, and 5 for at least the following ten days. 

    The above predictions are from Housseal and Levine of the 557th USAF Weather wing. 

    The Sun busts out a trio of flares: 

    https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF[3] 

    OK1HH wrote: 

    "In the last seven days, solar activity has risen monotonously." 

    (I thought F.K. Janda's use of the word "monotonously" must be a mistranslation, but now I am not so sure. I thought perhaps he meant "monstrously." -K7RA) 

    "Moderate flares have been observed almost daily. Highest level X-rays belonged to an X1.5 class eruption, start 1350 UTC, peak 1355 UTC, end time 1359 UTC on May 10th from NOAA AR 3006 in the southwest quadrant, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. 

    "During the daytime, moderate flares often caused a Short-Wave Fadeout. AR 3007 and AR 3014 also evolved into the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. 

    "No fibrous eruption was observed in any of the fibers on the solar disc. Observed coronal holes were relatively small, for this reason too, the geomagnetic activity was mostly low. The expected arrival of a CME, related to the flares of classes X1.5 and C4.7 on 10 May did not arrive on Earth. 

    "The decrease in geomagnetic activity together with the increase in the intensity of solar X-rays contributed to the fact that the critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 were above average, increased further since 15 May." 

    "Here is the Solar activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022: 

    "Activity level: mostly moderate

    X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.4-C2.6

    Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-195

    Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (1-8/period), class X

    (0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)

    Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 140-230


    "Jana Hrabalova, RWC Prague Astronomical Institute."


    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:


    "Quiet: May 21-23

    Unsettled: May 19-20, 24-26

    Active: May 19, 24

    Minor storm: possible May 24

    Major storm: 0

    Severe storm: 0

    "Geomagnetic activity summary:

    "Today (Thursday, May 19), unsettled to active conditions are expected. On Friday, May 20, we expect at most unsettled conditions until Saturday, May 21. From this day to Tuesday, May 24, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

    "About Tuesday, May 24, and Wednesday, May 25, the return of the unsettled conditions may be accompanied by a further active event."

    "Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov observatory."

    KB1AWM wrote on Sunday, May 15:

    "Had a nice short opening to VK6OZ on 12m from Charleston, SC at 0330 UTC tonight. The mode was FT8. What was most amazing was given that late night propagation is usually not conducive to 12m, I switched on the amp and received a +17 dB signal report. If you take out the 7 dB from the amp, that still leaves +10 dB barefoot. I'm enjoying these 10 and 12 meter openings!"

    I replied: "I've been seeing interesting stuff on 12 meters as well. Frequently during the day on FT8 I will see my signal from here in Seattle on pskreporter ONLY being received in Florida. Weird!" 

    On Tuesday, May 17 on 12 meter FT8 starting at 2130 UTC I was only heard by CX6VM in Uruguay (6,945 miles), WH6S on Kauai (2,723 miles) and 3D2EZ Fiji (5,834 miles). 

    This persisted until 2145 UTC when I was heard by WQ6Q in California (713 miles). 

    On Thursday, May 19 I used FT8 to observe propagation on 10 meters using pskreporter.info from 1530-1600 UTC. Local sunrise was 1231 UTC. During that half hour I was receiving no signals at all, but my low power signal was being received by many stations, only in the Western United States, all between 700-1200 miles away, with one odd exception, a mysterious WLO in EM50vo, 2149 miles from me in Alabama. 

    WLO turned out to be the callsign of an old Coastal Maritime station in Mobile, Alabama. This doesn't mean that they are on the 10 meter band with that callsign, but instead have a receiver monitoring the band and forwarding received info via WSJT-X. 

    Check out this web site: 

    https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile[4] 

    Interesting web site - the Solar Influences Data Center: 

    https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php[5] 

    The Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence: 

    https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html[6] 

    Here is a site that talks about 17 flares: 

    https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8[7] 

    Here is an article titled "Solar flares: What are they and how do they affect Earth?" with nice graphics: 

    https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF[8] 

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11]. 

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at, http://k9la.us/[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at, http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for May 12 through 18, 2022 were 112, 120, 105, 129, 173, 153, and 147, with a mean of 134.1. 10.7 cm flux was 133, 149.5, 152.7, 153.6, 161.7, 170.8, and 179.9, with a mean of 157.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 7, 12, 10, 12, and 7, with a mean of 9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15, and 7, with a mean of 9.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff
    [2] https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe
    [3] https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF
    [4] https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile
    [5] https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php
    [6] https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html
    [7] https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8
    [8] https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat May 28 02:52:13 2022
    05/27/2022

     

    Although our Sun is currently peppered with spots, average daily sunspot number slipped from 134.1 the previous week to 124.7 during this reporting week, May 19 to 25.

    Average daily solar flux was actually a tiny bit higher, rising hardly at all from 157.3 to 158.8. Solar flux has been in a slow, steady decline from a peak of 179.9 on May 18.

    A new sunspot group emerged on May 19, two more on May 22, another on May 24 and two more on May 25. But a look at the total sunspot area, expressed in millionths of a full solar disc, shows it declining steadily through the week, from 1500 on May 19 down to 870 on May 25.

    AR3014 is the biggest sunspot group of the current solar cycle:

    https://bit.ly/39UwBVA[1]

    There were plenty of solar flares this week, although no significant disturbances to note.

    Here is a movie of a flare appearing on May 20:

    https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX[2]

    Another flare on May 25 at 1824 UTC, emerging from an old dead sunspot group:

    https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd[3]

    The Thursday prediction from USAF shows average daily solar flux dropping from 158.8 over the recent week to 114.5 for the following reporting week, May 26 through June 1. Also, the Thursday projection for solar flux in the next week was lower than the Wednesday prediction.

    Predicted solar flux is 120, 115 and 110 on May 27 to 29, 112 on May 30 to June 1, 115 on June 2, 120 on June 3 and 4, 115 on June 5 and 6, then 130, 140 and 150 on June 7 to 9, 155 on June 10 and 11, then 160 and 165 on June 12 and 13, 175 on June 14 and 15, 165 on June 16 to 19, then 163, 132, and 158 on June 20 to 22, 150, 142 and 138 on June 23 to 25, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on June 26 to 29, 120 on June 30 through July 1, and 115 on July 2 and 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 15, 12 and 10 on May 27 to 31, 5 on June 1 to 9, then 8, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 10 to 14, then 12, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 15 to 19, 5 on June 20 to 22, then 10, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 25, and 5 on June 26 through July 6.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - May 26, 2022 from OK1HH.

    "The current accelerating growth of solar activity is leading to predictions that the maximum of the current cycle 25 should be comparable to cycle 19. Solar cycle 19 was the nineteenth solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of sunspot activity began. Solar cycle 19 lasted 10.5 years, beginning in April 1954 and ending in October 1964. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the peak of cycle 19 was 285, in March 1958.

    In the last 14 days, the solar flux has not fallen below 130. A total of 13 M-class solar flares were registered.

    The critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 in the same interval corresponded to the effective sunspot number 72 to 116, while drops below 100 occurred exclusively after days with slightly increased geomagnetic activity.

    It's already summer in the ionosphere of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere. This corresponds to lower values of the highest usable frequencies with the daily occurrence of sporadic layer E. The optimal frequencies for DX QSOs therefore fell below 20 MHz. With the exception of routes leading above lower latitudes, where they tend to be several MHz higher during the day.

    In the coming weeks, the activity of the sporadic layer E in the ionosphere of the northern hemisphere will intensify. Although solar activity should increase again after June 10, the activity of the sporadic layer E will have an even more significant effect on the opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

    Recent flare news:

    https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc[4]

    NN4X wrote:

    "There was some amazing propagation on Thursday, 5/26 on 12m to Asia over the north pole. I was called, and worked, in succession:

    EX8MLE 1618 UTC 

    9V1XX 1619 UTC 

    DS4FWI 1620 UTC 

    VU2CPL 1627 UTC

    Sadly, 6m never opened, but the fun didn't stop with 12m in the morning.

    15m was spectacularly open around 0200 UTC on Thursday evening.

    The band was literally open ALL OVER THE WORLD."

    Steve included a pskreporter map showing spectacular worldwide FT8 coverage for his signal.

    From Max White, M0VNG, concerning latitudinal asymmetry in sunspot regions:

    https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d[5]

    Posted to an email list devoted to propagation beacons on Thursday night:

    "Late evening. Only heard one beacon around 0345 UTC:

    ZL3TEN, 28.2279 MHz, 579  Path: 7,827 miles

    Unbelievable so late at night and signal so strong.

    73, Lou  WD5GLO-EM15AH  Oklahoma"

    On May 24 I sent this to propagation expert K9LA:

    "Over and over recently I do an FT8 test using pskreporter on 10 meters and if no response there, I check 12 meters, usually around 1600 to 1800 UTC.

    Every day shows my signals ONLY being received in Florida, the path about 2500 miles. Often there will be an XE station or two, also at 2500 miles.

    But that's it, nothing else. But later in the day there will be a few stations elsewhere.

    The bearing is 103 to 105 deg.

    This is consistent, day after day. I am sure Florida has a large ham population, but cannot for the life of me figure this out.

    On 10 meters a half hour ago AG0N in Nebraska reported, 999 miles away and also a 106 degree bearing, but otherwise see a huge concentration of Florida stations.

    Any idea why this is happening, other than perhaps a large and enthusiastic concentration of FT8 stations monitoring in Florida?"

    Carl replied:

    "Tad, your observations remind me of when I've operated on 10m around solar minimum from the Cayman Islands. Most of the QSOs are in the vicinity of MN - which is about 2500 miles (4000 km) from ZF. The openings are very selective in location when there aren't enough sunspots for shorter distances.

    The 2500 mile distance (4000 km) is right at the maximum F2 region hop length for 12m and 10m. That means the F2 region MUF is the highest for paths of that length.  Thus your FL and XE paths could be one F2 region hop. Any shorter paths would need more ionization to refract the higher elevation angles for those shorter distances.

    As for New England, the midpoint of the path would be farther north, which means a lower MUF.

    The Nebraska path might be via sporadic E, as 2000 km is the maximum hop length for the E region. Could the FL and XE paths be 2 hops via sporadic E? Perhaps - it'd be nice to have some data, but there aren't any ionosondes near those paths.

    If I had to bet, I'd go with one F2 region hop for FL and XE, and one Es hop for Nebraska."

    On May 25th I replied:

    "Attached is an image from pskreporter from this morning on 12 meters, with Florida represented by better conditions with coverage up the east coast."

    Carl responded:

    "That PSKreporter image with the densest reports from along the East Coast suggests that it was one F2 hop, and that the F2 region was better on May 25 at 1942 UTC than the previous days. The day-to-day variation of the F2 region certainly explains it well.

    It would be interesting to collect data for the entire day - maybe in 2-hour increments to see the patterns versus time. That may be a way to distinguish between F2 and Es."

    I received a link from IL4LZH for a page showing interesting analysis of signals received at his station over the past few years:

    "Here at https://ft8.chaos.cc[6].

    You can find some data plots that I have collected in recent years.

    They are analyzed by ITU zone and hours of days. Horizontally 40 ITU zone inside ITU zone hours from 00 to 23 vertically day of the month green intensity linked to intensity of signal."

    Carrington event, https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm[7]

    Dr. Tamitha Skov on May 22, https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA[8]

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide CW WPX contest. You may be sought after if you have a 2x1 call sign (like my former call, KT7H) because the first few characters of your call may be unique. See https://www.cqwpx.com[9].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25, 2022 were 154, 109, 110, 138, 132, 137, and 93, with a mean of 124.7. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2, 165.5, 166.7, 164.7, 158.2, 146.9, and 136.5, with a mean of 158.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 12, 10, 11, 5, 4, and 6, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 12, 9, 11, 6, 3, and 7, with a mean of 8.3.

     

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/39UwBVA
    [2] https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX
    [3] https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd
    [4] https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc
    [5] https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d
    [6] https://ft8.chaos.cc
    [7] https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm
    [8] https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA
    [9] https://www.cqwpx.com
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jun 4 00:07:47 2022
    06/03/2022

     At 2335 UTC on June 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.

    "A solar filament recently erupted from the southwest quadrant of the solar disk. Event modeling suggests a minor impact to the Earth's magnetosphere on late 05 June to early 06 June."

    All our measures of solar activity declined in a big way from the last reporting week to the current period, May 26 through June 1.

    Average daily sunspot number plummeted from 124.7 to 52.9, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux receded from 158.8 to 104.3. These are dramatic shifts, although well within expected variations at this point in solar cycle 25.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 100 on June 3 to 5, 98 on June 6, 95 on June 7 and 8, then 90, 130, 135, and 140 on June 9 to 12, then 145, 150 and 145 on June 13 to 15, 140 on June 16 to 18, then 130, 125, 120 and 110 on June 19 to 22, 100 on June 23 to 29, 98 on June 30 through July 3, then 110, 112, 125, 130, 135, and 140 on July 4 to 9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 3 and 4, 15 and 12 on June 5 and 6, 5 on June 7 to 9, 8 and 12 on June 10 and 11, 14 on June 12 and 13, then 8 and 12 on June 14 and 15, 14 on June 16 and 17, 12 on June 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 16, 22, 12, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 27, and 5 on June 28 to July 6, then 8 and 12 on July 7 and 8, and 14 on July 9 and 10.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Last weekly commentary mentioned the possibility that the current 25th solar cycle could resemble the nineteenth, which peaked in 1958. However, it should be recalled that this was before the beginning of the satellite era, so compared to cycles 20 to 24 in fact, we know very little and comparison is difficult. Today's predictions of solar activity, without satellite measurements and observations, cannot even be imagined. The possibility of reaching such a high maximum as we experienced in 1958 applies under the conditions 'if the growth of activity continues with the current speed' and it is not the only condition.

    After large active areas sank a week ago, solar activity dropped significantly. No major eruptions were observed.

    The surprise was the G1-class geomagnetic storm on May 27th, related to the solar flare on the evening of May 25th. According to most predictions, the CME should have missed the Earth. In the shortwave propagation, we recorded an afternoon improvement on the 27th, followed by a significant degradation in the following days.

    The second surprise was the occurrence of reversed magnetic polarity sunspot (AR3027) on June 1st. We commonly encounter this phenomenon around the minimum of the eleven-year cycle, later only exceptionally. The return of higher solar activity can be expected as early as next week. A more significant improvement in shortwave propagation awaits us around mid-June."

    Thanks to David Moore, about how the current cycle progress is not exceptional, and definitely not another Cycle 19.

    https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS[1]

    Interesting.

    https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm[2]

    https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics[3]

    N0JK wrote on May 31:

    "There was great propagation to South America from the Midwest for the CQ WPX CW contest last weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday 10 meters was open to Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and other countries. I operated 'fixed mobile' with 10 watts and a quarter wave whip. Made 16 contacts.

    I suspect the higher solar flux from Solar Cycle 25 picking up helped with TEP ionization. And sporadic-E set up links to TEP."

    KA3JAW reports:

    "On Wednesday, June 1, 2022, between 1819 and 1833 UTC I received WM2XEJ in EM83 calling CQ using FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E. Distance 670 miles, azimuth 220 deg.

    The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700 MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

    WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia.

    Tom is authorized to operate at 400 watts ERP using CW, SSB, FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

    Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna at 300 watts ERP.

    This was the second time I received WM2XEJ via sporadic-E. The first time was on Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607 and 1632 UTC.

    Here is an update to the 8-meter experimental band which happened today, Thursday, June 2, 2022.

    Sporadic-E started at 1521 til 1917 UTC.

    1521 to 1917 UTC WM2XEJ EM83 3RD time received via FT8, 670 miles, azimuth 220 deg.

    1704 to 1718 UTC WM2XAN EN74 1ST time received via FT8, 547 miles, azimuth 298 deg."

    More on 8 meter experimental stations:

    https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb[4]

    Nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs[5]

    Correction: In last week's bulletin change IL4LZH to Gianluca Mazzini's actual call sign, IK4LZH.

    Another important and timely report from Dr. Tamitha Mulligan Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA[6]

    Check out her recently updated listing at QRZ.com.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].

    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1, 2022 were 87, 69, 34, 42, 40, 39, and 59, with a mean of 52.9. 10.7 cm flux was 122.7, 113.6, 101.8, 98.4, 100.6, 98, and 104.2, with a mean of 104.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 17, 24, 15, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A index was 6, 14, 19, 14, 8, 8, and 8, with a mean of 11.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS
    [2] https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm
    [3] https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics
    [4] https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb
    [5] https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs
    [6] https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 10 16:24:12 2022
    06/10/2022

    Hard for me to believe, I had to blink to make sure, but on Wednesday, June 8 for the first time this calendar year there were no sunspots, even though two new sunspot regions appeared on June 4.

    Average daily sunspot number declined to 44 from 52.9 last week. Average daily solar flux was only 99.4, down from 104.3 last week and 158.8 the week before.

    News about the first spotless day can be found here:

    https://bit.ly/39cOiQk[1]

    I am grateful that on Thursday, June 9, a new sunspot group emerged, bringing the sunspot number for the day to 17.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 on June 10, 110 on June 11-16, 115 on June 17, 120 on June 18, 125 on June 19-20, 150 on June 21, 110 on June 22, 100 on June 23 through July 3, 105 on July 4-5, 110 on July 6-10, then 115 on July 11-13, 120 on July 14, and 125 on July 15-16.

    Assuming the above prediction is true, this would mean average daily solar flux rising from 99.4 to 109 over the next reporting week and 123 the next.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 10-14, then 8, 12 and 8 on June 15-17, 5 on June 18-22, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on June 23-26, 5 on June 27 through July 9, then 12, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 10-14, and 5 on July 15-19.

    Despite the recent downturn, Solar Cycle 25 activity exceeds the official forecast:

    https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle[2]

    According to Spaceweather.com, May 2022 sunspot activity was the highest it's been in eight years.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "As during the last solar revolution, solar activity has been low in the last two weeks.

    "On June 8, the Sun was even empty - no sunspots - R = 0.

    "This is a remarkable development more than 2 years after the beginning of Solar Cycle 25. However, during the last few hours, rapid spots have been observed near the central meridian. In addition, NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a probable group of sunspots approaching beyond the northeastern edge of the Sun:

    "https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov[3]

    "It should be followed by other groups of spots, which will increase solar activity again.

    "The Earth's magnetic field was largely quiet, except for an increase in activity on June 6.

    "The result was an improvement in the propagation conditions on June 6 and a degradation on June 7 and the morning of June 8. Gradual improvement can be expected in the coming days."

    W9NY wrote:

    "Just got a new dipole up on 10 meters on my condo roof which is over 400 feet off the ground overlooking Lake Michigan.

    "Made a couple of contacts late this afternoon into Texas and Louisiana S5-S6 and nothing else on the band, until a ZL called me from New Zealand about 6:20 PM local time. He gave me an S9, and he was S5. Just like the good old days on 10 meters!

    "The ionosphere has to be working, I think, to get over to New Zealand."

    Some observations from K7RA on 6 and 12 meters this week:

    On June 4, at 1745 UTC on 6 meter FT8 I worked KB1EFS/2 in Cape Vincent, New York.

    On pskreporter.info[4] I saw that my signal was propagating along a very narrow arc at 72-74 degrees received only by a concentration of stations in the northeast USA. No real 6 meter antenna here, just a 32 foot end-fed wire, 4:1 UnUn and autotuner, mostly indoors on the second floor of my 1907 all wood Craftsman home.

    Just prior to that at 1730 UTC I seemed to be monitored only by stations 2000-2500 miles from me in an arc with bearings 77-79 degrees with WA9WTK at the south and VE3TTP at the north.

    On June 9 at 2300 UTC on 12 meters FT8 I am only heard by N4DB at 91 degrees, 2292 miles and K4BSZ at 94 degrees, 2276 miles. Then at 2320 UTC, WB4EVH at 2326 miles and 103 degrees bearing, at 2330 UTC, VK5PJ at 8306 miles, 250 degrees.

    Here is an article about aurora:

    https://bit.ly/398hPdM[5]

    Mostly good info, except the statement about being halfway through this Solar Cycle. I guess we might be halfway toward the peak.

    Here is a link about the K-index:

    https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc[6]

    Here is a nice solar image, and another interesting link:

    https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B[7]

    https://bit.ly/3x9WNna[8]

    Amateur Astro photographer and his image:

    https://bit.ly/3NILWYo[9]

    More information here:

    https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a[10]

    Here is a 3-week movie of sunspot activity:

    https://bit.ly/3zqGu87[11]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[12] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8, 2022 were 59, 52, 75, 57, 45, 23, and 0, with a mean of 44.4. 10.7 cm flux was 100.9, 100.7, 100.9, 98.7, 96.4, 98.4, and 99.9, with a mean of 99.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 10, 8, and 5, with a mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/39cOiQk
    [2] https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle
    [3] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov
    [4] http://pskreporter.info
    [5] https://bit.ly/398hPdM
    [6] https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc
    [7] https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B
    [8] https://bit.ly/3x9WNna
    [9] https://bit.ly/3NILWYo
    [10] https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a
    [11] https://bit.ly/3zqGu87
    [12] k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [17] http://k9la.us/
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 17 16:46:38 2022
    06/17/2022

    Solar activity increased this week, which we were happy to see, with average daily sunspot number rising from 44.4 last week to 74.3 during this reporting week, June 9-15. Sunspot numbers rose all week, starting at 17 on Thursday, June 9 to 149 on Wednesday, June 15.

    Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux increased from 99.4 to 123.9. Solar flux peaked at 145.5 on Tuesday, June 14, but then on Thursday the noon daily reading at the Penticton observatory was 146.7, an increase from 140 the day before. Also on Thursday, daily sunspot number increased from 149 on Wednesday to 159.

    The Penticton observatory does three daily readings of solar flux, but it is the local noon reading that is the official solar flux reading of the day, and the one we report here.

    You can see the readings at https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk[1] .

    The solar flux outlook appears promising for the next few days. The June 16, 2022 forecast from the USAF Space Weather Squadron shows solar flux at 146 on June 17-18, then 144, 140, and 138 on June 19-21, 136 on June 22-24, 100 on June 25 through July 5, then 105, 110 and 115 on July 6-8, 120 on July 9-11, 125 on July 12-16, 120 on July 17-18, 110 on July 19 and 100 on July 20-31.

    Predicted planetary A index, a measure of geomagnetic stability, is 8 on June 17-18, 5 on June 19-24, then 10, and 8 on June 25-26, 5 on June 27 through July 7, 8 on July 8-10, then 5, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 11-15, then 5 on July 16-19, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on July 20-23, and 5 through the end of the month.

    You can find daily updates for predicted solar flux and A index at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[2] . Updates are posted every afternoon, North America time.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity grew. The most significant phenomenon was observed in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk - a long-duration (LDE) M3/1n solar flare, observed at 0407 UTC on June 13, accompanied by type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts.

    "The associated CME was visible off the east. The arrival of the ejected cloud of particles on Earth was calculated to the afternoon of June 15.

    "Interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at 0400 UTC on June 15. Solar wind speed was about 500 km/s until shock arrival, when it escalated to 550 km/s and eventually peaked at 624 km/s at 0556 UTC.  The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with an escalation to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 1200-1500 UTC in reaction to CME effects.

    "The MUF increase caused by the storm was registered on June 15 at two intervals, first after 0600 UTC and second before 1200 UTC. In the afternoon to evening a decrease in MUF followed, an increase in the decline and an overall worsening.

    "Solar activity will remain elevated for several days, which will help conditions return to above average levels. However, in the Earth's northern hemisphere, sporadic-E layer will cause very irregular development, from increased attenuation to more frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

    Here are some solar flare updates:

    https://bit.ly/3xvycJO[3]

    https://bit.ly/3O0re6B[4]

    Thanks to K5EM of the Western Washington DX Club for this study of sporadic-E:

    https://bit.ly/39zqIxk[5]

    Here is some information about the Maunder Minimum:

    https://bit.ly/3QubESn[6]

    Go to https://www.spaceweather.com[7] and look for an article that appeared June 15-16 titled "Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm."

    Look for this fascinating map:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg[8] .

    It purports to show which areas are more vulnerable to effects from geomagnetic storms due to variations in ground and infrastructure conductivity.

    Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, a favorite operating activity for many of us. The current outlook shows modest solar flux and perhaps slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. Predicted solar flux for June 24-26 is 136, 100 and 100, with planetary A index at 5, 10 and 8. Field Day starts on Saturday, but it is worth looking at predictions for Friday.

    Look for an update in next week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP025. Field Day rules are at, http://www.arrl.org/field-day[9] .

    A few days ago, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this:

    https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A[10]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[11].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 9 through 15, 2022 were 17, 33, 41, 63, 96,121, and 149, with a mean of 74.3. 10.7 cm flux was 106.4, 110.5, 112.1, 121.3, 131.5, 145.5, and 140, with a mean of 123.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 8, 9, 13, 8, and 20, with a mean of 9.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 10, 12, 14, 10, and 18, with a mean of 10.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk
    [2] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
    [3] https://bit.ly/3xvycJO
    [4] https://bit.ly/3O0re6B
    [5] https://bit.ly/39zqIxk
    [6] https://bit.ly/3QubESn
    [7] https://www.spaceweather.com
    [8] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/field-day
    [10] https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A
    [11] k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 24 19:03:09 2022
    06/24/2022

    This past reporting week (June 16-22) began with a bang, when the daily sunspot number was 159. But sunspot numbers declined every day to finally reach 80 on June 22.

    One new sunspot group emerged on June 15, another on June 16, one more on June 18, and another on June 21.

    Average daily sunspot number over the week was 124.6, up substantially from 74.3 the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 123.9 to 140.5.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 9.7 to 11.4, and the middle latitude numbers increased one point to 11.9

    It was great to see the Sun covered with spots on Spaceweather.com. Use the Archives feature toward the upper right, and you can see the

    daily solar images on the left side of the page for any date in the past. I particularly appreciated the image of June 17, our Sun blanketed with sunspots!

    Unfortunately, a California wildfire cut off power to the Solar Dynamics Observatory Data Center at Stanford University, so solar images are not being provided, according to Spaceweather.com.

    ARRL Field Day is this weekend. What is the outlook?

    The latest from US Air Force forecasters Housseal and King at the USAF 557th Weather Wing shows predicted solar flux at 120, 115 and 110 on June 24-26, and Planetary A index of 8, 12 and 15. Field Day is actually on June 25-26, but it is useful to see the prediction for Friday. The planetary A index shoes a moderate but increasing geomagnetic instability.

    Newsweek reported a recent sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB[1]

    The latest (Thursday night) forecast from USAF shows solar flux at 120 and 115 on June 24-25, 110 on June 26-27, 100 on June 28-29, 105 on June 30, 100 on July 1-2, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 3-7, 130 on July 8-9, 135 on July 10, 140 on July 11-16, then 138, 134, 125 and 121 on July 17-20, then 114, 118 and 105 on July 21-23, 100 on July 24-29, then 105, 110, 115 and 120 on July 30 through August 2.

    The planetary A index prediction is 8, 12, and 15 on June 24-26, 5 on June 27 to July 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8-11, 5 on July 12-13, 12 on July 14-16, 10 on July 17, 5 on July 18-19, then 12, 18, 12 and 10 on July 20-23, then 5 on July 24 through August 3, and 8 on August 4-5.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "The distribution of active areas on the Sun according to heliographic latitudes has changed relatively little during the last three solar rotations, therefore the predictions of the overall solar activity level were quite reliable.

    "The parameters of the solar wind, measured around the Earth, and the activity of the geomagnetic field had a similar course.

    "The highest usable frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 (MUF) were increased on June 19-20. The sporadic-E layer played the most important role in the shortwave propagation on June 16-19."

    The latest space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY[2]

    A story about how "We can't reliably predict solar cycles" can be found at:

    https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx[3]

    I have no idea what prompted an incredible series of news stories late Thursday. Was it a slow news day? Perhaps an indication of a respite from national tragedies?

    The following websites contain stories about our Sun, and the emergence of a big spot. Interesting because on Thursday the sunspot number declined to 69 from 80 the day before, and much lower compared to the 124.6 average for the previous seven days:

    https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU[4]

    https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP[5]

    https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA[6]

    https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI[7]

    https://bit.ly/39R3SBu[8]

    https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c[9]

    https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ[10]

    https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC[11]

    https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs[12]

    https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC[13]

    https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8[14]

    https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun[15]

    https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O[16]

    https://bit.ly/3OjuY38[17]

    https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q[18]

    https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO[19]

    https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo[20]

    https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe[21]

    https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/[22]

    https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5[23]

    https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH[24]

    https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb[25]

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[26] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[27] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[28] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[29] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[30] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[31] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[32] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22, 2022 were 159, 152, 145, 120, 112, 104, and 80, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 146.7, 148.9, 140.2, 143.6, 136.5, 138.8, and 128.7, with a mean of 140.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 14, 12, 10, 8, and 11, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 14, 14, 15, 10, 10, 10, and 10, with a mean of 11.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB
    [2] https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY
    [3] https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx
    [4] https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU
    [5] https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP
    [6] https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA
    [7] https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI
    [8] https://bit.ly/39R3SBu
    [9] https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c
    [10] https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ
    [11] https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC
    [12] https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs
    [13] https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC
    [14] https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8
    [15] https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun
    [16] https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O
    [17] https://bit.ly/3OjuY38
    [18] https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q
    [19] https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO
    [20] https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo
    [21] https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe
    [22] https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/
    [23] https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5
    [24] https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH
    [25] https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb
    [26] k7ra@arrl.net
    [27] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [28] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [29] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [30] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [31] http://k9la.us/
    [32] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jul 2 00:19:25 2022
    07/01/2022

    Solar activity took a dramatic plunge over the recent reporting week (June 23 to 29) but geomagnetic activity stayed exactly the same. Field Day weekend saw rising geomagnetic numbers, with planetary A index at 8, 16 and 23, Friday through Sunday.

    On Sunday the geomagnetic activity was a problem, although not severe, with many stations in Field Day reporting increased absorption.  The planetary K index peaked at 5 (a big number) at the end of the UTC Day on Saturday and continued into the early hours of Sunday, which was early Saturday evening here on the West Coast.

    This happened because of a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, detailed here: https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9[1]

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers declined from 124.6 to 49.1, while average daily solar flux dropped from 140.5 to 105.3.

    Planetary and middle latitude A-index averages were both the same as the previous week, all numbers around 11.

    The prediction from the USAF 557th Weather Wing is not very optimistic, with solar flux peaking at 140 on July 11 to 16.

    The prediction shows 10.7 cm solar flux at 90 on July 1, 95 on July 2, 105 on July 3 to 5, then 110, 120, 130 and 135 on July 7 to 10, 140 on July 11 to 16, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on July 17 to 20, and 115, 110, 105 and 100 on July 21 to 24, 95 on July 25 and 26, 100 on July 27 to 29, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 30 through August 3, then 130 on August 4 and 5, and back to 140 again on August 7 to 12.

    Predicted planetary A-index is 5 on July 1 to 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8 to 11, 5 on July 12 and 13, 12 on July 14 to 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on July 22 to 25, and 5 on July 26 through August 4, then 8, 12 and 8 on August 5 to 7.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH writes, "Solar activity has declined over the last seven days.  Geomagnetic activity was highest on June 26(G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out around midnight UT on June 25and 26) and was lower on June 28 and
    29.  On June 26, a big, bright CME billowed away from the sun's southern hemisphere.  A slow-moving CME that left the sun could pass close to Earth on June 30.  The near miss, if it occurs, could disturb our planet's magnetic field.

    A dark filament of magnetism erupted in the sun's northern hemisphere on June 28, but no CME was observed after the explosion. Shortwave propagation conditions were relatively worse on June 26 and 27.  After that, they began to improve, but only very slowly due to the declining solar activity."

    A new space weather report and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman.

    https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk[2]

    Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism, RWC Prague, at the Budkov Observatory wrote this geomagnetic activity summary:

    "After the last active events on June 24 to 26, which without a storm event did not exceed the active level (local K-index = 4), we expect a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level during the coming seven days.

    More unsettled geomagnetic activity can be expected about July 3 and 4, and also at the end of the currently forecast period on July 7. Then we expect geomagnetic activity at a quiet to unsettled level." Here are pictures of the Budkov Observatory:

    https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv[3]

    https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4[4]

    How big is our nearest star?

    https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6[5]

    Cycle forecasts, wrong or right?

    https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF[6]

    Storm watch, from the popular press:

    https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs[7]

    Reader David Moore, a frequent contributor, sent this:

    https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g[8]

    It hasn't been updated recently, but here is a blog devoted to propagation:

    http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com[9]

    Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

    Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29, 2022 were 69, 60, 31, 33, 32, 71, and 48, with a mean of 49.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.4, 115.4, 108.1, 102, 98.2, 96.1, and 96.2, with a mean of 105.3.  Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 16, 23, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of 11.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 8, 14, 15, 15, 11, and 7, with a mean of 11.7.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9
    [2] https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv
    [4] https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4
    [5] https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6
    [6] https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF
    [7] https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs
    [8] https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g
    [9] http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Jul 9 02:35:53 2022
    07/08/2022

    On July 7 Spaceweather.com reported a G-1-class geomagnetic storm underway, with possible increase to G-2 class.  They said it was caused by a co-rotating interaction region.  The storm subsided, but then came back early on July 8.

    Late on July 7 Spaceweather.com presented this animation of a large new sunspot AR3053 emerging over the sun's eastern horizon:

    https://bit.ly/3bYQImG[1]

    Notice that unlike here on Earth, the sun's eastern horizon is on the left?  Perhaps we can explain that in a future bulletin.  Your input would be appreciated.

    When I suspect HF conditions are disturbed due to geomagnetic activity, I look at the latest K index on this site:

    https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh[2]

    The left column of K indices starts at 0300 UTC and repeat every three hours.  At the end of the UTC day, an A index number is assigned.

    For an even more up to date indicator, I check here: https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ[3]. Note the 6 hour, 1-day, 3-day and 7 day options in the upper left corner.

    Sunspot activity increased this week, with average daily sunspot numbers going from 49.1 to 62.6.  But oddly, average daily solar flux was down slightly from 105.3 to 103.5.

    Taking a longer view, solar activity is stronger than it was a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was 34.7 and average solar flux was 86.9 as reported in ARLP027 in 2021.

    Spaceweather.com reported that a CME missed Earth on July 1, but it pushed dense solar wind plasma toward us, causing a G1 class geomagnetic storm.  In the few hours past midnight UTC planetary K index was 4, then 5.  Alaska's high latitude college A index was 25 on July 2.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 128 on July 8, 130 on July 9 and 10, then 128 and 125 on July 11 and 12, 120 on July 13 and 14, then 115, 110, 100, 95 and 98 on July 15 to 19, 95 on July 20 and 21, 98 on July 22 and 23, 100 on July 24 and 25, 102 on July 26, 105 on July 27 and 28, 100 on July 29, 110 on July 30 and 31, 112 on August 1 and 2, 115 on August 3 to 6, 112 on August 7 and 8, 110 on August 9, 108 on August 10 and 11, then 110, 100, 95 and 98 on August 12 to 15.

    Predicted planetary A index 15 on July 8, 5 on July 9 to 12, 12 and 15 on July 13 and 14, 12 on July 15 and 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to 31, then 8, 25, 12 and 8 on August 1 to 4, and 5 on August 5 to 9,then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on August 10 to 13.

    The above forecast is from Sadovsky and Thompson at the USAF 557th Weather Wing.  See https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC[4] for an article about their operation.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "A slow-moving CME that left the Sun on June 26 finally hit Earth on July 1 and triggered a positive phase of the disturbance with improved ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions.  This was followed by a slight worsening.  Then we observed a slow improvement thanks to increasing activity of the sporadic E layer since 6 July.  There was an even greater chance for so-called short skips in the early hours of July 7.

    A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field on July 7th, sparking a G1-class (maybe G2) geomagnetic storm." Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, presents a new video, 108 minutes long:

    https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4[5]

    Earthsky update: 

    https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V[6]

    Thanks to Max White for this:

    https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt[7]

    https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0[8]

    Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [9].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

    Sunspot numbers for June 30 through July 6, 2022 were 40, 30, 57, 42, 79, 92, and 98, with a mean of 62.6.  10.7 cm flux was 95.7, 98, 100.2, 102.2, 104.4, 109.4, and 114.6, with a mean of 103.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 19, 8, 21, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.8.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 17, 11, 18, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.7.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3bYQImG
    [2] https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh
    [3] https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ
    [4] https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC
    [5] https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4
    [6] https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V
    [7] https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt
    [8] https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0
    [9] http://arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 15 23:59:13 2022
    07/15/2022

    Rising solar activity over the past reporting week (July 7 to 13) was reflected in increased sunspot numbers and solar flux and rising geomagnetic activity as well.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 62.6 to 102.1, with the peak value at 134 on Monday, July 11.  Average daily solar flux rose from 103.5 to 147.4, with peak values at 164.9 and 164.8 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    A new sunspot emerged on July 7, another on July 10, and one more on July 11.  Total sunspot area peaked on July 11.

    Planetary A index averaged out at 12.4 (up from 9.8 last week) while the middle-latitude A index went from 9.7 to 10.6.

    Toward the end of the UTC day on July 7, Alaska's college A index was 46, a very high value, while the last four K index readings of the day and the next two were 6, 6, 7, 5, 5 and 5.

    This was caused by a co-rotating interaction region, sparking a G-1 class geomagnetic storm.

    Look here for info on co-rotating interaction regions:

    https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp[1]

    https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm[2]

    https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU[3]

    The Thursday night prediction from USAF shows improvement from the Wednesday outlook, with solar flux at 170 on July 15 and 16, 165 on July 17 and 18, 160 on July 19 and 20, then 155 and 145 on July 21 and 22, 135 on July 23 and 24, then 138 and 148 on July 25 and 26, 150 on July 27 to 29, 160 on July 30 clear out to August 7, then 155, 145 and 135 on August 8 to 10, 138 on August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, then 130 on August 15 to 17, and 135 on August 18 to 20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on July 15 to 21, then 10, 20 and 12 on July 22 to 24, 8 again on July 25 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on August 3 and 4, and 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20, and 8 on August 21 through the end of the month.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity continued to rise as predicted, a little faster than we anticipated.  The area of sunspots increased significantly. We observed several long and large filaments, especially on July 11 and 12. Geomagnetically calmer days 9 and 10 and 13 and 14 July were replaced by G1-Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions on July 8 and 12. The influx of protons of solar origin intensified after the July 9 eruption (with a maximum at 1348 UT) lasted until July 12. Shortwave propagation conditions varied erratically, worst on 8 July, better starting on 11 July."

    W5CTD wrote on July 9 that the previous Saturday he was playing around with a 20 meter Hustler mobile antenna mag-mounted on his car.

    He was puzzled at first when he heard stations calling "CQ Contest", til he looked it up and found out it was the IARU DX Contest.

    Chuck did not mention what mode he used, so I will assume it was SSB.  He was surprised to work many European stations, in fact, the list seemed to include all the European countries.

    Signals were strong, and he noted that his antenna was non-directional, and on his car parked on the street.

    The opening lasted from 0200 to 0400 UTC, but by 0430 the opening was over. "One improbable and amazing night."

    KS7T in Montana, who I worked recently on 17 meter FT8, sent me this in an email, which I edited:

    "I accidentally came across condx on 15 meter CW during the IARU contest that I haven't experienced there since the ARRL CW contest back in February 2000 when I was working Europe from Montana at 2 am local MST.

    20 started showing some signs of fading to EU right before 11 a.m. local and when that happens my instinct usually switches me to 40 but not this time.  My subconscious was begging me to check out 15. So I did.  First I heard a B4 (China?), so tuned around expecting to hear JAs.  There were none, but what I did hear was many headquarters signals from all over EU.  Had been on 15 earlier in the daytime and heard and worked two of those plus CR3DX, but that was it.

    I wasn't expecting to work any of those EU stns I just heard because a lot of them were weak, a few were S9 but fired up on 15 and just had to give 'em a call.  Well, not only did I work all 19 of them, but on first call, too.  Had 22 qs in all between 11pm and midnight on 15.

    The other 3 were two VK stns and the B4 who was a struggle.  He got my call OK but took several minutes to get the 06 through to him.

    Last night got on 6 and it had a bit of an opening to the east coast but just a few 4s and 2 1s were seen.  Worked some 9s and K4RW in SC.

    I have 44 states and one JA on 6 meters since 2020 either with my tribander or a homebrew 6 el vertical beam on the ground running 50w.

    I don't think I have ever seen a year like this one propagation wise in my 66 years in ham radio.  It has been quite frustrating at times but also very surprising, too."

    New video a few days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

    https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM[4]

    Next week I hope to get reports from N2CG about his WM2XCS 8 meter (49 MHz) beacon.

    Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for July 7 through 13, 2022 were 80, 81, 89, 113, 134, 117, and 101, with a mean of 102.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.3, 129.6, 136.9, 153, 161, 164.9, and 164.8, with a mean of 147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 19, 6, 7, 12, 18, and 5, with a mean of 12.4.  Middle latitude A index was 15, 14, 6, 8, 10, 16, and 5, with a mean of 10.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp
    [2] https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm
    [3] https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU
    [4] https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM/
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 15 15:27:51 2022
    07/22/2022

    Solar activity increased over this reporting week, July 14 to 20, with average daily sunspot number rising from 102.1 to 137.3, and average daily solar flux from 147.4 to 157.6.

    Peak sunspot number was 166 on July 17, and peak solar flux was 171.4 on July 15.

    Geomagnetic activity peaked on July 19 when planetary A index was 26 and middle latitude A index at 19.  Alaska's high latitude college A index was 43, with the K index at 6, 5, 5, 6 and 5 at 0900 to 2000 UTC.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased this week from 12.4 to 9.4.

    A crack opened in the earth's magnetic field on July 19, allowing

    solar wind to stream in.  It is documented here:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg[1]

    At 2241 UTC on July 20 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.  An increase in geomagnetic activity is expected over 22 to 24 July due to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind streams."

    Here is the latest forecast from USAF.  Predicted solar flux seems promising with flux values peaking around 160 on July 30 through August 7 and again from August 26 through early September. Predicted flux values are 120 on July 22, then 118 on July 23 to 25, then 116, 114, 110 and 120 on July 26 to 29, 160 on July 30 through August 7, then 155, 145 and 138 on August 8 to 10, then 138 on August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, 130 on August 15 to 17, 135 on August 18 to 20, 138 and 148 on August 21 and 22, 150 on August 23 to 25, and 160 on August 26 to September 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 40, 14 and 10 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to 28, 8 on July 29 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on August 3 and 4, 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20, and 8 again on August 21 to 29.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "A week ago we commemorated the BASTILLE DAY EVENT.  Twenty-two years ago (on the French national holiday of July 14, 2000), the Sun sent out a shock wave that reached the edge of the solar system. The subatomic particles accelerated by the eruption showered satellites and penetrated deep into the Earth's atmosphere. Radiation sensors on the Earth's surface detected a rare GLE - a ground-level event.  And if solar activity continues to grow as it is now, we will see something similar in the years to come.

    The most notable recent event was a crack that opened in Earth's magnetic field on July 19th, allowing solar wind to enter our planet's magnetosphere.  The result was a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Starting today, July 21, a slow-moving CME could hit Earth's magnetic field (thrown into space by the July 15 solar flare).  The high-speed stream of the solar wind should follow closely behind the CME.  Its arrival on July 22nd could intensify any storm the CME creates, possibly extending the disturbance until July 23rd.

    In addition, solar activity will decrease in the coming days, which combined with G1 is not good for shortwave propagation conditions."

    Rich, K1HTV wrote:

    "Yesterday evening, July 19, 2022 there was an incredible 6 Meter DX opening between VK4 and many lucky stations in the U.S. as well as the Ontario area.

    At 2311 UTC I decoded VK4MA completing a QSO with KD3CQ in southern MD. I was next in line, and quickly worked VK4MA from my FM18ap Virginia QTH.  I was followed by W3UR, W3LPL, AB3CV, N3OC and W3KX, all in MD and KF2T and K4SO in VA.

    Two minutes after working VK4MA I also worked VK4WTN, I also copied but did not work VK4HJ.

    I continued to decode the VK4 stations until 2358 UTC. I copied VK4MA working K8SIX in MI, W7XU in SD, N0TB in MD, VE3EDY and as far northeast as NZ3M in PA, N2OO, W2XI and W2IRT in NJ, W1VD in CT, WA1EAZ in MA and K1TOL in Maine, which was Paul's longest ever 6 Meter DX contact.  VK4MA reported logging 27 stations during his almost one hour long DX opening to North America.

    To say the least, it was a very memorable opening on the Magic Band. The solar flux was near 180 a few days earlier and a K index of 5 earlier in the day of the opening.  Was it F2 skip?  Was it TEP? Was it SSSP?  (Short Path Summer Solstice Propagation, see https://bit.ly/3oswSD3[2]).

    It was some kind of chordal propagation, probably linked to the Es opening from the East to Mid-America at the time.  I'll leave it up to the propagation experts to figure out what mode it was."

    I assume he was using FT8, as Rich said "decoded."

    Jon Jones, N0JK responded:

    "A great report from Rich. I was monitoring at the time.  Saw many people north and east of Kansas calling VK, but no decodes of VK stations.  What a great opening!

    As for the propagation mode - my theory is the opening yesterday was a "mirror image" of the December-January USA-VK openings.  So sporadic-E on each end of the path connecting to TEP to cross the geomagnetic equator.  I have seen K0GU work VK stations in past summers on 6 in a similar fashion.  The high solar flux helped the TEP part of the path.  But sporadic-E created the magic."

    George, N2CG has been operating on the 8 meter band with special permission from the FCC.  Below is an edited version of some of the notes he sent me.

    "Back in October 2021 I received from the FCC an experimental radio station construction permit and license to operate on 40.66 to 40.7 MHz and issued the call sign WM2XCS.

    On 26 January 2022 WM2XCS began transmitting as a CW beacon on 40.685 MHz at 10 Watts output into a vertical ground plane antenna.

    On 26 May I made some changes by removing the vertical antenna and in its place installed a 4 element 7 dBd gain Yagi mounted 30 feet above ground beaming toward Europe and increased the beacon output power from 10 Watts to 20 Watts.

    Now using shorter ID message at 12 WPM, 'VVV DE WM2XCS/B FN20WV NNJ AR'.  I also increased the output power from 20 Watts to 30 Watts that equates to 150 Watts ERP which is the maximum power allowed on my experimental license.

    I recently learned that Borut S50B located in Vipava, Slovenia heard the WM2XCS CW beacon on 40.685 MHz on 13 June 2022 at 2054 UTC RST 539."

    WM2XCS/B currently operates daily from 1000 to 0300 UTC.

    You can send reception reports to n2cg@verizon.net[3].

    I will reply via postal mail with my unique WM2XCS QSL card. Indicate in your reception report the date, UTC time, frequency, RST report, mode and any remarks.

    If you hear me in QSO with another authorized 8m station, please indicate the call sign of that station I was in QSO with.  As 8m propagation allows I will be looking to have CW and SSB QSOs with stations in Ireland, Slovenia and South Africa who currently are allowed to operate on 8m.

    I also encouraged reception of WM2XCS/B or WM2XCS to be spotted on DXMAPS www.dxmaps.com which lists 40 MHz reception reports."

    George hopes that the FCC might allocate an 8 meter segment for radio amateurs, but there may be objections from operators of a nationwide network of automated high elevation stations that use meteor scatter to report mountain snow pack data.

    See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band[4] for some surprising history of amateur radio on 8 meters.

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reports:

    https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for July 14 through 20, 2022 were 133, 141, 153, 166, 125, 114, and 129, with a mean of 137.3.  10.7 cm flux was 169, 171.4, 176.2, 161.2, 149.4, 144.1, and 132.2, with a mean of 157.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 7, 5, 8, 26, and 7, with a mean of 9.4.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 10, 19, and 7,with a mean of 9.


    [1] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg
    [2] https://bit.ly/3oswSD3
    [3] http://verizon.net
    [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band
    [5] https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 15 15:27:53 2022
    07/29/2022

    Although images of the sun this reporting week, July 21 to 27, showed plenty of sunspots, only two new spots emerged, one on July 21, and another on July 25.

    Another new sunspot appeared on July 28, but the sunspot number declined to 50 from 52 the day before.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 137.3 to 91.1, and average daily solar flux softened by 50 points to 107.6.

    The headline on spaceweather.com on July 28 said, "Quiet Sun."

    Geomagnetic indicators began this reporting week fairly active, with planetary A index at 22, then it quickly quieted down to an average of 11.7 for the week, higher than the 9.4 average reported last week.  Average middle-latitude A index increased from 9 to 10.4.

    A look back a year ago shows this cycle is progressing nicely.  In ARLP030 in 2021 average daily sunspot number was just 48.9, and average daily solar flux only 81.3.

    A year prior the average daily sunspot number in 2020 was just 3.1! That is because there were five days with no sunspots, then two days with a sunspot number of only 11, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

    A sunspot number of 11 does not mean 11 sunspots.  It means there was just 1 sunspot group (which counts for 10 points) and one sunspot in that group, counting for 1, producing a total of 11, because of the arcane historical method of counting sunspots.

    Predicted solar flux shows it peaking at 130 on August 11.

    Predicted flux is 92 on July 29 to 31, 90 on August 1, 88 on August 2 to 4, 92 on August 5, 115 on August 6, 113 on August 7 and 8, then 120, 125, 130 and 125 on August 9 to 12, 120 on August 13 to 15, 118 on August 16 and 17, then 114 and 110 on August 18 and 19, 108 on August 20 and 21, then 106 and 102 on August 22 and 23, 100 on August 24 to 27, 108 on August 28 and 29, 110 on August 30 and 31, 115 on September 1 and 2, and 113 on September 3 and 4.  Solar flux peaks again at 130 on September 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 and 12 on July 29 and 30, 8 on July 31 and August 1, 5 on August 2, 8 on August 3 and 4, 5 on August 5 to 10, 8 on August 11 and 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, 22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25, 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, and 5 on September 1 to 6.

    USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, 2200 UTC on 28 Jul 2022

    https://bit.ly/3votD3A[1]

    OK1HH wrote on July 28:

    "Over the last seven days, solar activity has been steadily decreasing.  From some class C flares to the 'almost no chance of flares' announcement today.  But we observed some interesting anomalies.  For example, geomagnetic disturbance on July 21 caused two improvements in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions around 1400 and 1930 UTC. A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd at 0259 UTC.  The impact triggered a G1-class geomagnetic storm and in the early hours of the morning UTC, 6-meter band users were able to establish a series of contacts between central Europe and the US East Coast.

    The proton density in the solar wind, which suddenly rose on 27 July between 2000 and 2100 UTC, was accompanied by a significant improvement in shortwave propagation between Europe and the Caribbean, while closed at the same time the path between Europe and North America.

    A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north of the solar equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is expected to influence solar wind starting July 29.  Geomagnetic activity will increase again."

    KD6JUI wrote:

    "I go out in my kayak once per week to operate QRP.  Today, Thursday, July 28, I set out on Lake Solano (northern CA) not expecting much action due to a low solar flux (93.4) and predicted MUF of about 14 MHz.

    When I first checked 17m I heard a CW pileup apparently going after a Swiss station.  I had a couple contacts on 17 and 20m.  A couple hours later, I moved from the middle of the lake to the shade of a tree along the bank (temps were in the high 90s).  My loop antenna was half surrounded by foliage, which I figured would interfere with my signal.  Nonetheless, I gave 17m CW a try again, and contacted F8IHE almost immediately.  All he could copy was my call sign, but that was enough for me!

    Always a surprise."

    What are sunspots?

    https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW[2]

    Fun Morse Code app:

    https://morsle.fun/help/[3]

    A fun one-hour twice weekly relaxed CW activity, the Slow Speed Test, every Friday and Sunday:

    http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

    Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27, 2022 were 124, 107, 96, 80, 100, 78, and 53, with a mean of 91.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.7, 114.7, 110.5, 107.1, 102.3, 98.8, and 98, with a mean of 107.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 11, 17, 9, 6, 8, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.  Middle latitude A index was 14, 11, 15, 9, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 10.4.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3votD3A
    [2] https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW
    [3] https://morsle.fun/help/
    [4] http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 15 15:27:57 2022
    08/05/2022

    Solar activity continued to decline this week, with average daily sunspot number dropping from 91.1 to 36.6 and average solar flux at 95.7, down from 107.6 the week prior.

    Thursday's sunspot number was above the average for the previous seven days at 52.  Solar flux on Thursday was above the previous seven day average at 108.8.  The 2300 UTC flux was 111.3.

    We've not seen lower values since mid-April in bulletin ARLP015 with average sunspot number at 34.4, and the end of February in ARLP008 with average solar flux at 95.4.

    To track solar cycle 25 progress, I like to compare current averages against the same numbers from last year.  In the 2021 version of ARLP031, average daily sunspot numbers were 33.1 (lower by 3.5 from this week's report), and average solar flux was 83, down 12.7 from the current average.

    The lower activity was quite noticeable over the past week on 10 and 12 meters, but there must still be some daily sporadic-E, from what I've seen on an email list devoted to 10 meter propagation beacons. I have one myself, K7RA/B transmitting CW from CN87uq on 28.2833 MHz.  The outlook from the USAF space weather group shows a meager forecast for solar flux, this one from forecasters Hoseth and Strandness on Thursday. The latest forecast is a bit more optimistic than the Wednesday version, with solar flux at 112 instead of 100 for the next few days.

    Predicted solar flux is 112 on August 5 to 7, 110 on August 8 and 9, 112 on August 10, 114 on August 11 and 12, 98 on August 13 and 14, 100 on August 15 and 16, 98 on August 17 and 18, then 96, 96 and 98 on August 19 to 21, 96 again on August 22 and 23, 92 on August 24 to 28, 90 and 92 on August 29 and 30, 94 on August 31 through September 1, 96 on September 2 and 3, then 98 on September 4 to 10, and 100 on September 11 and 12.

    Predicted planetary A index 5 on August 5, 8 on August 6 and 7, then 5, 14, 12, 18 and 12 on August 8 to 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, then 22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25, then 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, then 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, 5 on September 1 to 6, 8 on September 7 to 8, and 5 on September 9 to 12. OK1HH wrote:

    "Throughout the period, solar activity was low, the Earth's magnetic field quiet to unsettled.  Shortwave propagation conditions were average to slightly below average.

    An interesting phenomenon for observers may have been a giant solar prominence - a loop of plasma on the sun's eastern limb. But even more interesting was the report of a farside sunspot.  So big it is changing the way the sun vibrates.  Helioseismic maps reveal its acoustic echo not far behind the sun's southeastern limb! The sunspot will turn to face Earth a few days from now."

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW put out a new forecast on July 29.

    https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc[1]

    Recently Dr. Skov sent this out (I edited) to her Patreon subscribers:

    "This week the Sun is a mixed bag of active regions, coronal holes

    and solar eye candy.  Although we aren't expecting any strong storming at Earth, we do have a big-flare player in view and are expecting some fast solar wind over the next few days (and then again sporadically next week).  This might give aurora photographers at high latitudes a brief show, but it likely wont be much, if any better than the weak shows we got this past week.

    Solar flux is finally back into the triple digits, which means decent radio propagation again on Earth's day side and along with the reasonably low risk for radio blackouts, amateur radio operators as well as GPS users should enjoy better than average signal reception (and transmission)."

    I like to watch this link to see what might be coming over the next few days on our Sun:

    https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[2]

    On Thursday night over on the left I am seeing lots of white splotches, perhaps indicating areas of magnetic complexity and maybe sunspots arriving soon.  The horizon is at -90 degrees.

    Although the STEREO mission has survived way past the initial design life, one of the probes has been gone for a few years, leaving us a very limited view of the sun.

    I would love to see a replacement probe, which I have heard might cost twenty-million dollars.  Or perhaps a brand new advanced design?  Perhaps one of our domestic billionaires fascinated by space flight could make this happen.

    Newsweek has solar news:

    https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB[3]

    Large sunspot emerging:

    https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ[4]

    Ginormous:

    https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to: k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for July 28 through August 3, 2022 were 50, 40, 27, 39, 32, 31, and 37, with a mean of 36.6.  10.7 cm flux was 93, 90.8, 94.3, 95.4, 97.8, 98.8, and 99.9, with a mean of 95.7.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 7, 11, 8, 9, and 8, with a mean of 7.7.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 12, 8, 10, and 7, with a mean of 8.6.


    [1] https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc
    [2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [3] https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB
    [4] https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ
    [5] https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A
    [6] http://arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Aug 15 15:28:05 2022
    08/12/2022

    Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.

    Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.

    Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.

    An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at 116 on September 2 to 4.  The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday evening was improved from Wednesday.

    A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle progress.  A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average solar flux was just 74.8.  Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9 during the past week.

    Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15 to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102, 100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30, then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to 4, 112 on September 5 to 7.  110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to 16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16 then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to 7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.

    OK1HH commented:

    "A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly. And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located (or selected from several locations).  Moreover, lasting five days. All this happened between August 7th and 11th.

    At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7 (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement).  STEVE is a recent discovery.  It looks like an aurora, but it's not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE[1]

    It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved.  The development continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the following days.  With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August).  They are also called the 'Tears of St. Lawrence'.

    Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."

    NASA expects increasing activity:

    https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5[2]

    Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[3]

    Yet another cycle prediction method:

    https://bit.ly/3SKm29J[4]

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground effects:

    https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

    Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87, 63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4.  10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2, 116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with a mean of 14.4.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15, and 10, with a mean of 12.1.


    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE
    [2] https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5
    [3] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3SKm29J
    [5] https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 19 23:36:39 2022
    08/19/2022

    At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

    "Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days.  There is a chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."

    Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing.  They recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long exposure time.  This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora photos are done this way and viewing with the naked eye you see a much less dramatic image.

    Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week, to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17.  Average daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this week.

    But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August 21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108 on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to 10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6, and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5 on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September 24 to 26.

    OK1HH writes:

    "A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase very slowly.  Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased.  On August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs.  The solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16.  In the meantime, eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.

    The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field, continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that caused minor shortwave radio blackouts.  The strongest eruption to date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.

    A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two).  The forecast for a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to 19.

    Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M for the third consecutive day.  The most recent, an M2 explosion on 17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.

    But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone.  So the disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth directly.

    The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF.  The best day was August 17.  A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF occurred on 18 August.  In the following days, the solar flare activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to decrease.  A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."

    Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":

    https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo[1]

    Even Newsweek is reporting it:

    https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw[2]

    https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg[3]

    And of course, British tabloids:

    https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc[4]

    And NOAA:

    https://bit.ly/3A537Ob[5]

    Violent solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw[6]

    Strong storm:

    https://bit.ly/3c998kT[7]

    Aurora in Montana:

    https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK[8]

    Radiation storm!

    https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR[9]

    John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta, Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho. My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.'   Where do 'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?

    The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle minimum than I am now.  The station is the same for the entire period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.

    One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is more active.'   As with so many things, there is no free lunch."

    My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at 33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at 64.8 degrees would be high.

    I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity, there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the disturbance closer to the poles.

    You might notice better propagation from Atlanta.  I've noticed using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE states and nothing here in the northwest.  Don't know why that is, but gradually the propagation will drift out this way.  So Atlanta being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get it here.  It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest, what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]

    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15].

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

    Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116, 104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6.  10.7 cm flux was 114.8, 119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with a mean of 11.7.  Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and 22, with a mean of 10.


    [1] https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo
    [2] https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw
    [3] https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg
    [4] https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc
    [5] https://bit.ly/3A537Ob
    [6] https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw
    [7] https://bit.ly/3c998kT
    [8] https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK
    [9] https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR
    [10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 26 16:49:44 2022
    08/26/2022

    On August 18 a new sunspot group emerged, another on August 21, then two more on August 23, and three more on August 25, when the sunspot number jumped to 94 from 46 the previous day.  Total sunspot area more than doubled from Wednesday to Thursday.

    Solar activity overall was down slightly for the reporting week, August 18-24, with average daily sunspot number declining from 60.8 during the previous seven days to 58.7, and average solar flux from 123.7 to 104.5.

    Planetary A index changed from an average of 11.7 to 12.6, and middle latitude A index measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia was 11, after an average of 10 last week.

    As an indicator of rising solar activity, a year ago this bulletin reported average daily sunspot number at 17.7, 41 points below this week's report.

    The Thursday night forecast from the 557th weather wing at Offut Air Force Base shows a probable peak of solar flux for the near term at 130 on September 11 and again on October 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 120 on August 26-27 (up from 105 in the previous day's forecast), 115 on August 28, 110 on August 29-31, 115 on September 1-2, 116 on September 3-4, 112 on September 5, 108 on September 6-7, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on September 8-11, then 128, 120, 118, 105 and 102 on September 12-16, 98 on September 17-18, 96 on September 19-21, 94 on September 22-24, then 92, 98 and 100 on September 25-27, then 108, 114, 116 and 116 on September 28 through October 1.

    Predicted planetary A index has some surprises in store, at 5 on August 26, 8 on August 27-28, 10 on August 29, 5 on August 30-31, 8 on September 1-2, then jumping way up to 30, 38 and 20 on September 3-5, then 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 6-10, 5 on September 11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on September 18-20, 5 on September 21-22, 12 on September 23, then  8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then back up to 30, 38, 20, 15 and 18 on September 30 through October 4, an apparent echo of the prediction for September 3-7.

    The above predictions were from USAF forecasters Easterlin and Sadovsky.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "As in the previous solar rotation, the Sun's activity continued to decline. Geomagnetic activity, however, has increased. More pronounced eruptive activity was mainly in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk.

    "The active sunspot, AR3078, produced several M-class solar flares and more than a dozen C-class flares. Most of the eruptions hurled particles into space. The first CME hit Earth's magnetic field on August 20. The next active sunspot group, AR3085, behaved similarly after reaching the same active heliographic longitude as the previous sunspot, AR3078.

    "Sunspot AR3085 grew more than ten times larger and turned into a double sunspot group with cores almost as wide as the Earth. Finally, a new sunspot, AR3088, appeared, again in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.

    "Attention is now drawn to a large coronal hole in the southeastern solar disk that could affect the solar wind after it appears near the central meridian.

    "With the current type of development, predictions of further events are more difficult than usual. Either way, we now expect a quasi-periodic increase in solar activity."

    Here is a news article about a large sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj[1]

    British tabloid sunspot news:

    https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz[2]

    Here is an article about a planet-sized sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy[3]

    A Nature World News story about a big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3csY16x[4]

    A report about eleven discoveries and the coming solar max, from American Geophysical Union:

    https://bit.ly/3R95HcW[5]

    From Space.com, the threat of unexpected flares:

    https://bit.ly/3AL32AS[6]

    Here is a paper on solar rotations:

    https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux[7]

    I did not include an article titled "Destructive solar storms are possible as Sun approaches height of its terrifying solar cycle." The article claimed that Solar Cycle 25 peak will be a year from now, rather than the consensus prediction of 2025.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24, 2022 were 83, 74, 56, 56, 44, 52, and 46, with a mean of 58.7. 10.7 cm flux was 116.5, 105.4, 101.5, 97, 102.6, 100.9, and 107.8, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 20, 14, 14, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of 12.6. Middle latitude A index was 19, 15, 16, 13, 7, 3, and 4, with a mean of 11.
     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj
    [2] https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz
    [3] https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy
    [4] https://bit.ly/3csY16x
    [5] https://bit.ly/3R95HcW
    [6] https://bit.ly/3AL32AS
    [7] https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 2 19:05:35 2022
    09/02/2022

    The past week saw many interesting events. The DRAO observatory at Penticton, British Columbia (the source of 10.7 cm solar flux measurements) was overwhelmed by solar flares, and at 2000 UTC on August 28 reported a solar flux value of 251.9, and the next day at 1700 UTC, a value of 357.1.

    The 2000 UTC local noon numbers are the official solar flux number for each day, so for the August 28 value I chose to report the 2300 UTC number of 133.5 instead.

    I checked with astronomer Andrew Gray at Penticton, and he reported, "The high values are indeed because of solar activity, both yesterday and today flares occurred right during our flux measurements."

    Solar activity increased this reporting week (August 25-31) with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 58.7 to 74.9 and solar flux from 104.5 to 123.8.

    Without that correction for August 28, average daily solar flux would have been 140.8 instead of 123.8.

    I have seen these errors in the past, but they are rare. When they occur, there is only 1/3 chance they will happen during the daily 2000 UTC reading, which sends them into the official daily solar flux data.

    Note that NOAA did not correct the high false value:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[1]

    Average daily A index was a little lower, the planetary values shifting from 12.6 to 10.1 and middle latitude from 11 to 9.4.

    Three new sunspot groups appeared on August 25 at the beginning of the reporting week, but none until September 1, with two new sunspot groups. The daily sunspot number rose from 42 on Wednesday to 67 on Thursday. Total sunspot area peaked on August 27.

    Predicted solar flux is more optimistic in the Thursday night version, as opposed to the Wednesday forecast reported in the ARRL Letter.

    Instead of 110 on September 2, the latest forecast is 116, 118 and 118 on September 2-4, 115 on September 5, 110 on September 6-8, then 118, 124, 130 and 128 on September 9-12, then 120, 117, 105 and 102 on September 13-16, then 98 on September 17-18, then 104, 102 and 108 on September 19-21, 118 on September 22-23, 124 and 125 on September 24-25, 120 on September 26-28, 115 on September 29 to October 1, then 112 on October 2, 108 on October 3-4, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on October 5-8.

    Flux values may briefly dip below 100 in mid-October.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 30, 25 and 15 on September 2-6, 10 on September 7-8, 12 and 8 on September 9-10, 5 on September 11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17, 5 on September 18-23, then 14, 10 and 8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then 30, 38, 20, 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 30 through October 7, and 5 on October 8-9.

    At 0209 UTC on September 2 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:  "Disturbed conditions caused by a high speed wind stream in a geoeffective direction are expected September 3-5."

    Frantislav K. Janda, OK1HH shares his weekly commentary:

    "The recent rise in solar activity, especially during August 27-30, was triggered by two sunspot groups, AR3088, which on 29 August fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, and AR3089, which on 30 August passed through the central meridian, so entered the region of the so-called present active longitudes.

    "Both sunspot groups are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, while in both were daily registered flares of moderate magnitude. CMEs have been registered in four cases. Given the proximity of the coronal hole, we would expect a significant increase in geomagnetic activity, but only at first approach.

    "However, there was only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity, confirming the current solar wind path models. We expect it to intensify and then increase in geomagnetic activity since about September 4 onwards. A further gradual increase in total solar activity can be expected a few days later."

    I (K7RA) noticed some curious 12 meter propagation, testing the band using FT8 on https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[2]. This way I can see instantly where my signal is heard, and get accurate, objective signal reports.

    On August 31 at 2038-2116 UTC my calls were heard nowhere in North America outside my local area, which were stations 4-54 miles away. But all stations hearing me were in a straight line running through Mexico and Central America, then down to Brazil.

    XE1GLL, XE1EE, and XE1AQY, down to V31MA, LU6FL and PU3MSR. No 12 meter resonant antenna, just a 32 foot end-fed indoor wire fed with a 4:1 UnUn transformer and automatic antenna tuner.

    Other curious 12 meter behavior was on Saturday, August 27 at 2252 UTC when the only stations hearing me (FT8 again) were ZL2OK at 7,120 miles with a strong signal report of +4 dB and WH6FXV at 2,649 miles.

    Ten minutes later at 2302 UTC JA1QGI was the only station reporting, from 4,746 miles away. Four minutes later JN4MIV reported. At 2312 UTC ZL2OK was back, this time reporting -4 dB, 8 dB lower than the earlier report.

    At 2315 UTC I worked JH6RKI and copied several more Japanese stations.

    Newsweek Magazine has been reporting interesting solar news recently:

    https://bit.ly/3q5XACl[3]

    And Forbes.

    https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G[4]

    Is "The Independent" one of the UK Fleet Street tabloids? Perhaps a RSGB member could inform us.

    https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF[5]

    Another wonderful report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, ham radio's own Space Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY[6]

    In the following links, many are presented for your amusement only. I do not believe that a huge solar flare will ever engulf the Earth.

    A canyon of fire: https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy[7]

    EarthSky reports (page down): https://bit.ly/3wRStK1[8]

    A report four weeks old, but still relevant: https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4[9]

    Growing sunspot a threat: https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt[10]

    Our angry Sun: https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm[11]

    This one is a bit over the top: https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd[12]

    From a few days ago: https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3[13]

    Radio blackouts: https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa[14]

    Flares and blackouts: https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa[15]

    More Flares: https://bit.ly/3e5ninN[16]

    Existential threat: https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE[17]

    Flare facing Earth: https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv[18]

    Sunspot somehow destroys Earth: https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy[19]

    The 61st annual All Asian DX Phone contest is this weekend.

    Information can be found here: https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa[20]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[21].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[22] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[23] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[24] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[25] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[26] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[27] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 25 through 31, 2022 were 94, 88, 84, 79, 87, 50, and 42, with a mean of 74.9. 10.7 cm flux was 117.8, 118.6, 127.5, 133.5, 130.6, 125.6, and 113.3, with a mean of 123.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 14, 7, 14, 13, and 13, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 11, 7, 13, 13, and 12, with a mean of 9.4.


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
    [2] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [3] https://bit.ly/3q5XACl
    [4] https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G
    [5] https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF
    [6] https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY
    [7] https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy
    [8] https://bit.ly/3wRStK1
    [9] https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4
    [10] https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt
    [11] https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm
    [12] https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd
    [13] https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3
    [14] https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa
    [15] https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa
    [16] https://bit.ly/3e5ninN
    [17] https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE
    [18] https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv
    [19] https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy
    [20] https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa
    [21] k7ra@arrl.net
    [22] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [23] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [24] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [25] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [26] http://k9la.us/
    [27] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 9 23:22:15 2022
    09/09/2022

     This week (September 1 to 7) two new sunspot groups emerged on September 1, two more on September 2, one more on September 5, another on September 6 another on September 7 and one more on September 8 when the sunspot number rose to 75, 7 points above the average for the previous seven days.

    But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 74.9 to 68, while average daily solar flux rose just two points from 123.8 to 125.8.

    On Thursday night the sun is peppered with spots, but none are magnetically complex and solar flux seems listless at 126.6, barely above the average for the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indicators were way up, average daily planetary A index rose from 10.1 to 24.6, while middle-latitude numbers increased from 9.4 to 17.4.

    September 4 was the most active day when planetary A index was 64. On that day the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska was 91.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 on September 9 to 13, 120 on September 14, 115 on September 15 and 16, then 125, 126 and 120 on September 17 to 19, 125 on September 20 and 21, 115 on September 22 to 24, 120 on September 25 to 28, 118 on September 29 and 30, 115 and 125 on October 1 and 2, 120 on October 3 and 4, 122 on October 5, 120 on October 6 and 7, 125 on October 8 to 11, 126 on October 12, 125 on October 13 and 14, and 126 on October 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 50 on October 1.  Otherwise,  8 on September 9 to 11, 5 on September 12, 20 on September 13 and 14, 15 on September 15, 8 on September 16 and 17, 5 on September 18 to 22, then 12 and 10 on September 23 and 24, 14 on September 25 to 27, 8 on September 28 and 29, then 22, 50, 25, 16, 12 and 10 on September 30 through October 5, 8 on October 6 to 8, then 5, 12, 15 and 10 on October 9 to 12, 8 on October 13 and 14, and 5 on October 15 to 19.

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past seven days, a large coronal hole moved from the central meridian to the western limb of the solar disk.  Its position relatively close to sunspot group AR3089 meant a high probability of a geomagnetic disturbance in the following days, since September 4.  Its onset as early as 3 September (class G1) was related to the intensification of the solar wind and the opening of a rift in the Earth's magnetic field.  The solar wind flow from the large coronal hole finally hit Earth's magnetic field on September 4 and triggered a G2 class geomagnetic storm.

    At the same time, two sunspot groups so large that they affected the Sun's vibrations developed on the far side of the Sun.  These were AR3088, which had last left the Sun a week earlier and was the source of a large CME heading for Venus on September 5.

    On September 7, AR3092 crossed the central meridian and had a really long tail above the surface of the Sun.  It was a filament coming out of the core of the spot and curling up into the solar atmosphere.  Inside the filament was a long tube of relatively cool, dark plasma.

    Thereafter the Sun was relatively quiet.  The solar disk was dotted by sunspots, but these have a stable magnetic field, so the chance of flares was low.

    Earth's magnetic field was mostly disturbed on the 3rd to the 6th. Thereafter was unsettled to active on the remaining days.  Shortwave propagation was below average, worst at the end of the disturbance on September 6.  An increase in f0F2 occurred at the beginning of the disturbance on September 4.

    Now a few quiet days followed by another disturbance on 13 and 14 September is expected."

    I (K7RA) have been seeing more strange 12 meter propagation recently.  Over and over for several days using FT8 as a propagation test tool with pskreporter.info, I would call CQ and see that only stations in Florida were receiving my signal.  It looks very odd on the map.  Florida does have a very large ham population, but this just seems so peculiar.

    Regarding the recent overloading of the sensors at Penticton, I noted I had seen this before, but didn't realize how rare it was.  I paged back through the DRAO archives, and unless I missed something, the last one was in 2015 on June 22 when the 2000 UTC flux reading was 246.9.  The noon solar flux the following day was only 116.1.

    Tamitha Skov's report is a week old, but too late for last week's bulletin:  https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg[1]

    Two massive sunspots:  https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI[2]

    Longtime contributor David Moore sent this:  https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL[3]

    Big explosion:  https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC[4]

    Our angry sun:  https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg[5]

    So huge:  https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

    Sunspot numbers for September 1 through 7, 2022 were 67, 71, 68, 62, 79, 56, and 73, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 116.3, 129.8, 123.4, 128.3, 130.2, 126.2, and 126.1, with a mean of 125.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 25, 64, 32, 20, and 14, with a mean of 24.6.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 10, 23, 33, 21, 14, and 12, with a mean of 17.4.


    [1] https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg
    [2] https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI
    [3] https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC
    [5] https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg
    [6] https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 16 14:37:41 2022
    09/16/2022

    Solar activity bounced back this reporting week, September 8-14, when average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 68 to 92.7, and average solar flux from 125.8 to 141.3.

    Fewer CMEs and flares were evident, with average planetary A index declining from 24.6 to 10.7, and middle latitude numbers from 17.4 to 10.6.

    New sunspot groups appeared, one on September 8, three on September 10, and one more on September 13. Total sunspot area (in millionths of a solar disc) on September 12-14 rose from 370 to 870 to 1240, the highest value in over a month.

    The sunspot number was highest on September 10 at 122.

    During this week two years ago, there were no sunspots at all, and average daily solar flux was only 69.7, over 56 points lower than this week, demonstrating the continued progress of Solar Cycle 25.

    The latest (Thursday) forecast from space weather folks at Offut AirForce Base shows predicted solar flux peaking at 150 on October 9,but with flux over the next few days following this bulletin less optimistic than the numbers in the bulletin preview in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

    Predicted flux values on September 16-17 are 140 and 135, then 125 on September 18-19, 120 on September 20-29, 125 on September 30 through October 6, 130 on October 7-8, then 150, 148, 143 and 140 on October 9-12, then 136, 130, 125 and 120 on October 13-16, 125 on October 17-18, and 120 on October 19-26.

    Predicted planetary A index shows moderate levels of geomagnetic activity until October 1-2. The forecast is 15, 18 and 10 on September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, then 10 on September 24, 14 on September 25-27, 8 on September 28-29, then 22, 50, 30, 20 and 12 on September 30 through October 4, then 15, 12, 10, 8 and 5 on October 5-9, then 10, 8, 5, 15, 20 and 12 on October 10-15, then 5 on October 16-19, then 12 and 10 on October 20-21, and 14 on October 22-24.

    The Autumnal Equinox is only a week away!

    Nice solar video from last month:

    https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm[1]

    Here is NOAA's latest forecast discussion:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion[2]

    Comments from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Although the Sun was speckled a week ago, all areas were quiet and overall, the Sun's activity was low. After that, activity began to grow rapidly in the northern hemisphere.

    "Sunspot group AR3098 grew larger and on September 11, a C6 class flare was registered. The old area AR3088, which was active during the last rotation of the Sun, returned in the southeast solar limb.

    "Two solar wind shock waves hit our planet on September 14 at 0630 UTC and 2313 UTC. The second of them significantly expanded the speed of the solar wind, started a disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field and caused very uneven shortwave propagation conditions, especially on routes leading through higher latitudes. Auroral distortion of signals were observed when passing through inhomogeneities in the auroral belt.

    "Further similar disturbances can be expected on September 17th, a calm after September 18th and a decrease in solar activity is expected after September 20th."

    The following is edited from an email from David Greer, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky:

    "With the Sun perking up from its long sleep, one of my favorite bands, 12 meters, is also coming alive. I've worked FT8 DX on 12 meters from time to time for months, but things really came alive for me from 1236-1356 UTC on September 14 when I worked 22 DX stations back-to-back on SSB.

    "I called CQ and was answered by a Dutch station and after that, stations just kept calling and calling. I put 22 DX stations in my log. Most were from Europe, but I also worked the Middle East and Northwest Africa, 18 different DX entities all together.

    "Some signals were quite strong, mostly because they ran high power with beam antennas but one station was thrilled to make the trip across the pond from Europe because, he said, 'he was running 100 watts to an indoor dipole in his apartment.'

    "Some commented it was their first ever 12-meter QSO. I hear that often from stations everywhere. Some say they didn't think anyone ever used 12 meters. Since 2000, I have 12 meter WAS and confirmed 182 DX entities on 12 alone.

    "I often call CQ on SSB when the band seems dead, only to have a rare DX station respond, such as VP8LP in the Falkland Islands.

    "I was on 12-meter SSB the first night hams in the USA were authorized to use the band in 1985. That night, the band was wild because of a big sporadic-E opening and strong signals were coming from all directions across North America. It was a blast!

    "I am fortunate to have a decent station -- 8-element log periodic antenna up 50 feet from a hilltop QTH with a kilowatt amp. But many signals were so strong on September 14 that I am sure others with modest stations could work many DX stations. I had to QRT at 1356 UTC even though others were still calling. I got back on the band later in the day and worked MW0ZZK in Wales. He was 20 over S9.

    "Don't forget about 12 meters. When 10 meters is open, 12 is open too. And don't forget about the phone band allocation, which starts at 24.930 MHz in the USA. I've heard some out of band because they didn't know where the band edge was.

    "A great propagation tool is the MUF web page operated by KC2G at https://prop.kc2g.com/ [3]. I monitor it constantly. It tells me what bands to check out and where I should aim my antenna. Plus, it has other interesting data in the menu."

    Thanks to Dave for mentioning that great web site. I notice it has a section labeled eSSN, which is Effective Sunspot Number, derived from 10.7 cm solar flux. More about eSSN from NorthWest Research Associates, based here in the Seattle area:

    https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html[4]

    Also, I would like to add that often 12 meters is open when 10 meters seems dead.

    Here is more crazy solar news:

    https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd[5]

    Here is Newsweek again:

    https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS[6]

    Some solar wind news:

    https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i[7]

    Lucky us! A brand new video, dated today, from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 8 through 14, 2022 were 75, 72, 122, 113, 117, 93, and 57, with a mean of 92.7. 10.7 cm flux was 126.6, 126.2, 135.9, 151.5, 150.4, 154.1, and 144.3, with a mean of 141.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 13, 12, 9, 9, 4, and 9, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 17, 14, 10, 9, 9, 5, and 10, with a mean of 10.6.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm
    [2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
    [3] https://prop.kc2g.com/
    [4] https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html
    [5] https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd
    [6] https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS
    [7] https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i
    [8] https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 23 15:55:10 2022
    09/23/2022

    Geomagnetic disturbances were down this week, but so were sunspot
    numbers and solar flux.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 92.7 to 68, and average
    daily solar flux from 141.3 to 134.3.

    On September 22 the sunspot number was 99, well above (by 31 points)
    the average for the previous seven days, a promising indication. We
    hope it may signal a trend.

    But Solar Cycle 25 progresses, a bit better than expected. A year
    ago, average daily sunspot numbers were about ten points lower, at
    58.3, while average solar flux was 87.4, about 47 points lower. Two
    years ago there were no sunspots! We still expect an uptrend lasting
    until Summer 2025.

    Six new sunspot groups appeared this week, the first on September
    15, two more on September 19, another on September 20, and two more
    on September 21.

    Predicted solar flux is 138 on September 23, 130 on September 24-27,
    120 and 125 on September 28-29, 122 on September 30 through October
    7, then 125, 122 and 120 on October 8-10, 118 on October 11-12, 116
    on October 13-15, 138 on October 16, 135 on October 17-18, then 133,
    128, 126, 130 and 125 on October 19-23, 120 on October 24-25, and
    122 on October 26-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20 on September 23, 15 on September
    24-25, 8 on September 26-28, then 5, 22, 50, 30 and 20 on September
    29 through October 3, then 12, 15, 12 and 10 on October 4-7, then 8,
    8, 5, and 8 on October 8-11, 5 on October 12-14, then 12, 10, 5, 5,
    20, 18 and 12 on October 15-21, and 8 on October 22-26, then 22, 50,
    30, 20 and 12, a repeat from the previous solar rotation.

    The above predictions were by Dethlesfsen and Ciopasiu at Offut Air
    Force Base.

    Are sunspots really black?  A report can be found here:

    https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black[1]

    Pleased to report that the 2022 Autumnal Equinox is today, Friday,
    September 23 at 0104 UTC. Both northern and southern hemispheres
    will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation, which is good
    for HF propagation.

    Frequent contributor David Moore sent this story about a magnetic
    mystery solved with the aid of the Solar Orbiter:

    https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX[2]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 22, 2022 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The setting sunspot region AR3098 still managed to produce an
    impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden
    ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect) affected
    frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.

    "On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from
    the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm,
    but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088
    appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new
    number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it grew again.

    "On September 18, we observed five M-class solar flares in the
    setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an
    earthward CME.

    "On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the
    southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the rising and growing AR3105
    - which doubled in size the next day.

    "On September 21, NOAA predicted a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm
    might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is
    expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.

    "On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex
    AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in
    the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.

    "Geomagnetic activity was somewhat lower than expected.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions pleasantly surprised us around
    September 17. Therefore, we expected them to improve further as the
    Autumnal Equinox approached. But it didn't happen.  They remained at
    average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies
    in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere."

    I (K7RA) had more strange pipeline propagation on 10 meters this
    week, in which my FT8 signal was only reported by
    https://pskreporter.info[3] from stations in Florida.

    At 2050 UTC yesterday, AI4FR (2509 miles), N2UJZ (2558 miles),
    KD8HTS (2582 miles), and WC3W (2609 miles) were the only stations
    anywhere receiving my signal. All were less than 100 miles from each
    other.  Later PU5CAC (Brazil, 6847 miles) was added to the mix,
    along the same arc as the North America stations.

    I was not using any directional antenna, just a random length
    end-fed indoor wire fed by a 4:1 UnUn and autotuner. Very curious
    results, and it happens often. So, for me, the band was dead, except
    to a very specific location.

    Here is a space weather report from England's Met Office:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather[4]

    On September 22, https://spaceweather.com[5] reported three big
    sunspots crossing the solar horizon: AR3105, AR3106 and AR3107.

    Here is always a good reference:

    https://solarmonitor.org/[6]

    NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/[7]

    Solar Dynamics Observatory:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[8]

    The SOHO site:

    https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/[9]

    Hilarious solar warning out of India, an EOTWAWKI existential
    threat:

    https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ[10]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [15]. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21, 2022 were 71, 64, 76,
    51, 74, 70, and 70, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 139.7,
    131.1, 131.5, 136.1, 127.9, 137.2, and 136.9, with a mean of 134.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 11, 11, 8, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 5, 9, 7, 6, and 4,
    with a mean of 6.9.

     


    [1] https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black
    [2] https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX
    [3] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [4] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather
    [5] https://spaceweather.com
    [6] https://solarmonitor.org/
    [7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
    [8] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
    [9] https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/
    [10] https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ
    [11] k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 30 14:11:41 2022
    09/30/2022

    Sunspot activity rose this reporting week, September 22-28, with
    average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 68 to 105.1. But solar
    flux? Not so much. Average daily solar flux rose from 134.3 to
    138.4.

    So, the sunspot average rose 55% and solar flux only 3%. I usually
    expect the numbers to track more closely.

    New sunspots appeared on September 22 and 23, and one more on
    September 27. On Thursday night (September 29) NOAA reported the
    daily sunspot number at 56, little more than half the average for
    the previous seven days, which is 105.1.

    Tuesday September 27 had lots of geomagnetic activity, with the
    planetary A index at 24 and middle latitude at 33. Spaceweather.com[1]
    blamed an unexpected CME. They also report a huge sunspot beyond the
    Sun's eastern horizon with a helioseismic image at,
    https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN[2] .

    The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic
    warning at 2146 UTC on September 28:

    "Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 geomagnetic
    activity is likely during the interval 30-Sep to 02-Oct.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
    SPEED WIND STREAM."

    Predicted solar flux from the Thursday night forecast appears much
    more optimistic than the Wednesday numbers, which were in the ARRL
    Letter on Thursday.

    Instead of 135 and 130 for the next few days, they are 148 on
    September 30, 146 on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-7, then 135, 130,
    128 and 132 on October 8-11, then 136 on October 12-13, then 138,
    140, 138 and 135 on October 14-17, then 132, 130, 128 and 125 on
    October 18-21, then 130, 140, 142 and 145 on October 22-25, and 140,
    135, 130, 125, 128 and 130 on October 26-31, then 132 on November
    1-3, and 135, 130 and 128 on November 4-6.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 20, 60 and 40 on September 30
    through October 2, then 20, 18, 16 on October 3-5, 12 on October
    6-7, then 8 on October 8-14, 10 on October 15-16, 8 on October
    17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 8 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24-25,
    8 on October 26-27, then in a recurrent disturbance as sunspots
    rotate into the same position as weeks earlier, 25, 50, 30, 20, 12
    and 10 on October 28 through November 2, and back to 8 on November
    3-10.

    Of course, a planetary A index of 50 or 60 is huge, indicating an
    expected major geomagnetic disturbance.

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 29, 2022.

    "Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field
    activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.

    "The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe
    without a computer. I will add more next time.

    "An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic
    activity during the night of September 24-25.

    "Further developments did not take place according to assumptions.
    Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar
    activity.

    "Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances:
    September 30 and especially October 1!

    "http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/[3] - F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

    Wow, Frantislav manages to submit his report without a computer!
    I've never been to Europe (unfortunately), but I imagine him ducking
    into some sort of Internet kiosk to file his report.

    Here is Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, report
    from last weekend:

    https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ[4]

    An article on solar research:

    https://bit.ly/3dPm40p[5]

    Newsweek is at it again:

    https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e[6]

    I continue to see unusual propagation using FT8, such as my signal
    only being received in a narrow band 100-200 miles wide on the East
    Coast of North America.

    You do not need to be an FT8 user to use it to check out the bands.
    Just go to the pskreporter map page at
    https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[7] and select the band you are
    interested in (they even have 11 meters!).

    Next, select the default "Signals" and "Sent/Received by" and change
    "the callsign" to "grid square," entering your own four-character
    grid (or one near you with a larger ham population) and in the
    "Using" field select FT8.

    Hit "Go!" and you will see where stations in your area are being
    received, including signal levels.

    You can enter your own call instead of the grid, and select "Country
    of Callsign," and you will see activity all over your nation. I find
    it interesting early in the day to use this on 10 meters, and what I
    usually see is activity all over the East Coast, and especially in
    the southeast U.S. but not here on the west coast.

    But I know that the 10 meter openings will advance across the
    country with the movement of Earth relative to our Sun.

    Explore the "Display options" link just to the right of the time
    listed in the "over the last" field, and you can customize this
    tool. I like to select "Show time text in black always," "Show
    connecting lines always," and "Show SNR."

    The "Show logbook" link is very useful, once you have done a search.
    Often, I will use this, searching for the callsign of an FT8 station
    who has mysteriously disappeared after connecting to me. I can sort
    the entries by Time to find out if anyone has received that station
    since I last saw that station's signal.

    The default "over the last" setting is 15 minutes, but when
    searching for a callsign you can vary the time over the past 24
    hours.

    Have fun!

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28, 2022 were 99, 111, 128,
    96, 120, 110, and 72, with a mean of 105.1. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7,
    146.3, 146.5, 134.7, 135.1, 134.5, and 134.8, with a mean of 138.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 13, 7, 6, 24, and 5, with
    a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 10, 5, 5, 33, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.

     


    [1] https://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN
    [3] http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
    [4] https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ
    [5] https://bit.ly/3dPm40p
    [6] https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e
    [7] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] https://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 7 23:31:02 2022
    10/07/2022

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29 through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

    Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

    This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30, one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday, October 6.

    I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago and with higher sunspot numbers.

    Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9, then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130 on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155 on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130 on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130 on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10, 5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16, then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22 to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8 on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

    On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot", AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's eastern horizon.  They predict this could produce two weeks of high solar activity.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following conditions would be calmer.  This assumption was shattered after AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

    Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and October 2.

    However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group, but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active region.  It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific and parts of North America.  Apparently, it blasted a CME into space.

    This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar disk.

    It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

    As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

    However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the following days.

    Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.  The plasma clouds are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8 October."

    Big filament.

    https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC[1]

    https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ[2]

    The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

    https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME[3]

    https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
     http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56, 74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4.  10.7 cm flux was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean of 149.2.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16, and 14, with a mean of 12.7.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2, 9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC
    [2] https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ
    [3] https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME
    [4] https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 14 16:40:14 2022
    10/14/2022

    Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
    with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
    149.2 to 155.3.

    A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
    when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
    ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
    is better than predicted.

    October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day Spaceweather.com[1] warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
    magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

    The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS[2] and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp[3] .

    Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
    the first week in November at 160.

    The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
    14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
    October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
    and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
    on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
    November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
    5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
    12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
    November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
    then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
    9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
    November 18-22.

    With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
    season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
    beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
    total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
    lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
    those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
    shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
    ends.

    "Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
    many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
    clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
    could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
    between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
    magnetosphere calm down.

    "The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
    until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
    observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
    observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
    smaller AR3116.

    "All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
    and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
    disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

    "Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
    while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
    to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
    still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
    propagation.

    "We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
    be replaced by an increase later in October."

    John, W2QL wrote:

    "I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
    UTC, -18 dB.

    "My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
    RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
    southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
    6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
    to be F2.

    "10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
    3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
    but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
    and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
    Kansas.

    "Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

    "Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
    car."

    Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
    although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
    was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
    aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
    still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
    aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3CQEveO[4]

    Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
    cannot kill it.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
    114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
    159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
    with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
    7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3T82fQS
    [3] https://bit.ly/3evItjp
    [4] https://bit.ly/3CQEveO
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 21 21:54:49 2022
    10/21/2022

    Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week
    (October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9
    to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to
    119.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A
    index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4
    to 8.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,
    another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19
    and one more on October 20.

    I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are
    my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was
    offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.

    The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the
    first week in November.

    Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October
    23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,
    160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on
    November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140
    on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on
    November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first
    week in December.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,
    15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on
    October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on
    November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8
    on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on
    November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on
    November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.

    Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems
    strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head
    deeper into the Fall season.

    Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:

    "A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,
    2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were
    strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.

    "From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8
    around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave
    whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"

    "Signals were strong.

    "The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind
    the northwestern limb of the solar disk.

    "Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,
    when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor
    G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.

    "In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple
    sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.

    "It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast
    of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind
    speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase
    again.

    "We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more
    frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially
    from the last days of October onward."

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4[1]

    Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:

    "For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters
    more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not
    heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA
    which is very active.

    "You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.

    "This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,
    and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22
    stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good
    signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.

    "Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like
    11pm their local time.

    "So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you
    may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"

    Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity
    across 10 meters.

    Bob, KB1DK writes:

    "I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was
    mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very
    accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually
    happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.

    "The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band
    conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first
    month of use. I highly recommend the website.

    "Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great
    from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who
    were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.

    "The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends
    were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600
    Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for
    several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to
    Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact
    with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were
    working stations from the west coast."

    The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com[2] .

    A new photo of a solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,
    84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,
    115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with
    a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.
     


    [1] https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4
    [2] https://prop.kc2g.com
    [3] https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 28 17:11:27 2022
    10/28/2022

    Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went
    from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning
    last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.

    On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot
    number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.
    Perhaps this is a promising sign.

    The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See
    what I mean:

    https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB[1]

    I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:

    "Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.

    "Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and
    has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as
    well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."

    So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the
    bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with
    the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
    the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
    the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far
    off.

    Here is what he sent me:

    A index (Boulder)              7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
    A index (K7RA estimate)  5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1

    Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
    latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on
    November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
    November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
    November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
    November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
    November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.

    The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160
    presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current
    prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic
    for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
    Letter.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
    October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
    on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
    November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
    24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
    through December 6.

    From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point
    of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of
    note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
    field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and
    bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

    "Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began
    to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others
    emerged in the northeast.

    "Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the
    Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the
    eastern edge of the solar disk."

    Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:

    "I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10
    meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
    October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14
    feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for
    my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."

    10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working
    stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
    have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000
    miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past
    sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole
    produced huge pileups of JA signals.

    My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
    more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.

    Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a
    gamma ray burst.

    Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com[2] and using the archives feature in
    the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9
    gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an
    unusual VLF antenna.

    This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that
    long to reach us.

    Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:

    https://bit.ly/3znjztv[3]

    More info on the event:

    https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi[4]

    Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:

    https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU[5]

    Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
    phones? You can participate:

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data[6]

    Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:

    https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy[7]

    Some tabloid news on flares:

    https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL[8]

    Something even worse than a Carrington Event?

    https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR[9]

    In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
    were wrong.

    The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in
    ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
    flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.
    The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10] .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
    46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
    105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
    10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
    mean of 9.1.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB
    [2] http://Spaceweather.com
    [3] https://bit.ly/3znjztv
    [4] https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi
    [5] https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU
    [6] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data
    [7] https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy
    [8] https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL
    [9] https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR
    [10] k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 4 15:25:45 2022
    11/04/2022

    Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3
    to 129.9.

    There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I
    used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle
    latitude A index.

    At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather
    Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
    speed wind stream from November 4-5."

    Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle
    latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.

    The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next
    week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,
    then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,
    112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,
    104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,
    then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November
    30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December
    7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5
    on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November
    13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,
    then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,
    12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on
    December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on
    December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the
    state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy
    to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).

    "The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the
    absence of energetically significant phenomena.

    "A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None
    of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic
    fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.

    "Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that
    it changed the way the Sun vibrated.

    "Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond
    the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was
    about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.

    "On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics
    Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,
    studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding
    universe.

    "Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal
    holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric
    disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like
    a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on
    https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ[1], just days before Halloween!

    "A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,
    but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.

    "Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a
    small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on
    October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed
    after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind
    stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.

    "(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV[2] .)

    "Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had
    stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.

    "Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.
    The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to
    the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.

    "Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's
    western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on
    November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's
    magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation
    conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally
    afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the
    disturbance could follow."

    Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I
    worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from
    Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts
    and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."

    Solar blasts in the news:

    https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v[3]

    A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:

    https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/[4]

    News about radio blackouts!

    https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W[5]

    A smiley Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd[6]

    New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I[7]

    Part 3 of her mini-course:

    https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk[8]

    This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work
    domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers
    for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes[9] for
    details.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,
    97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,
    129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,
    with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,
    6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ
    [2] https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV
    [3] https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v
    [4] https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/
    [5] https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W
    [6] https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd
    [7] https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I
    [8] https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk
    [9] https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
    [10] k7ra@arrl.net
    [11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [15] http://k9la.us/
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Nov 14 20:54:43 2022
    11/14/2022

    ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, November 11, so this
    bulletin is delayed until Monday, but edited and updated Sunday
    night.

    Two new sunspots appeared November 1, one more November 3, two more November 4, one more and then another on November 6 and 7, another on November 9 and again on November 10, and one more on November 13. But sunspot numbers and solar flux seem modest lately, and so are the solar flux forecasts.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week, from 70.3 to 78.9, yet
    somehow the solar flux averages stayed the same, 129.9 and 129.9.
    Our reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday, and in the four
    days since, the average rose to 137.9.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 13.7 to 13.4, but the
    middle latitude numbers changed from 14.3 to 9.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on November 14-15, 120 and 110 on
    November 16-17, 105 on November 18-19,  then 110, 114, 112 and 114
    on November 20-23, 116 on November 24-26, 118 on November 27-28,
    then 120, 122, 125, 124 and 122 on November 29 through December 3,
    130 on December 4-5, then 125 and 120 on December 6-7, 115 on
    December 8-9, then 120, 118, 116, 115 and 114 on December 10-14, 116
    on December 15-16, 114 on December 17-18, then 112 and 114 on
    December 19-20, and 116 on December 21-23.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 14, 10 on November
    15-16, 5 on November 17-19, 15 on November 20,  5 on November 21-22,
    then 8, 16, 26, 15 and 12 on November 23-27, then 8, 15, 26, 16 and
    12 on November 28 through December 2, then 8 on December 3-4, 12 on
    December 5-8, 8 on December 9, then 5 on December 10-14, then 25, 15
    and 8 on December 15-17, 5 on December 18-19, then 8, 26 and 15 on
    December 20-22.

    Angel Santana, WP3GW, wrote:

    "10 meters is getting so better, that today on November 9 at 1319 UTC had a contact with 3B9FR on 28.522 MHz up 5. He even answered me in Spanish."

    That is Rodrigues Island, in the Indian Ocean, more than 9000 miles
    from Puerto Rico.

    More on Rodrigues Island:

    https://bbc.in/3El5MGS[1]

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ[2]

    Articles about solar flares and radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu[3]

    https://bit.ly/3hkvke8[4]

    Paul, K2PMD, asked:

    "I am a relatively new ham, so please forgive me if this is a dumb
    question. Generally speaking, I understand that a high K index makes
    radio communication more difficult. Why is the K index not included
    in the weekly propagation report?"

    My response:

    "The reason is, there are too many of them.  Instead, geomagnetic
    indicators are summarized using the A index.

    "If we listed all the K indices for both middle-latitude and
    planetary, there would be 112 numbers to report.

    "K index is quasi-logarithmic, while A index is linear.

    "The A index for any day is calculated from the 8 daily K indices.

    "https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW[5]

    "I've been using this resource more and more lately, when I want to
    check for possible geomagnetic disturbances in real time:

    "https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[6]

    "Notice that the numbers are fractional, and it is easy to spot
    trends in real time. K index is always expressed in whole numbers,
    but because these are planetary numbers from many magnetometers, you
    get a finer resolution."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9, 2022 were 65, 81, 82, 78,
    80, 85, and 81, with a mean of 78.8. 10.7 cm flux was 125.3, 117.7,
    131.1, 130.8, 134.6, 132.3, and 137.6, with a mean of 129.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 16, 10, 4, 19, 12, and 7,
    with a mean of 13.4. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 8, 3, 12,
    8, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.

     


    [1] https://bbc.in/3El5MGS
    [2] https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ
    [3] https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu
    [4] https://bit.ly/3hkvke8
    [5] https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW
    [6] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 18 18:02:42 2022
    11/18/2022

    At 0334 UTC on November 18, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
    Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "A moderately large coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
    location by 19-Nov. Combined with possible weak glancing interaction
    of recent CMEs, geomagnetic activity is expected in the coming days.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2022."

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week.
    Flux rose, while spots fell.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average
    solar flux rose from 129.9 to 137.2.

    This suggests the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7
    cm radiation from those spots increased.

    A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and
    two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which
    runs Thursday through the following Wednesday. Another sunspot group
    emerged the next day on November 17.

    How is this sunspot cycle progressing? One year ago, in our bulletin
    average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, solar flux was 89.1, so
    if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see the cycle
    making steady progress. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around
    July 2025, about 32 months from now.

    So why do we care about these numbers? We get better HF propagation
    at higher frequencies when x-rays from the Sun are more intense, and
    they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm radiation. This
    radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

    Back in 1957-59 at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 the radiation was so
    intense that (I've been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around
    the clock. Solar Cycle 19 had by far the highest sunspot count in
    recorded history, with nothing like it before or since.

    Here is the prediction for solar flux, from Thursday which has lower
    short term numbers than the Wednesday forecast presented in the ARRL
    Letter.

    Expect 118 on November 18-21, 120, 122 and 122 November 22-24, 115
    on November 25-26, then 120 and 125 on November 27-28, 130 on
    November 29-30, 135 on December 1-12, 120 and 110 on December 13-14, then 105 on December 15-18, 110 on December 19, and 115 on December 20-23, then back to 135 before the New Year.

    Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue to possible
    geomagnetic unrest, is 10, 18, 28, 12 and 8 on November 18-22, 5 on
    November 23-24, then 15, 18, 12 and 8 on November 25-28, 5 on
    November 29-30, then 12, 18 and 8 on December 1-3, 5 on December
    4-7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-13, 5
    on December 14-16, 15 on December 17, then 18 on December 18-19, and 5, 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on December 20-25.

    Coming up is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest, over the weekend of
    December 10-11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and
    2021. Although predicted solar flux is not particularly high, the
    prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that
    weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating
    predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

    The comment above about Solar Cycle 19 in the ARRL Letter brought
    this response, from a ham who was there, and just in time for
    Friday's bulletin.

    Roger, K6LMN in Los Angeles, California wrote:

    "10 meters SSB and the beacons most days are very good. South
    America comes as if over a coax cable terminating here in Los
    Angeles.  But I need 6 more countries worked/confirmed on 10M SSB to
    make 150.

    "Also please wake up the 'magic band' 6m because I need a few more
    grids on 6M SSB to make 425 confirmed.

    "Solar Cycle 24 was OK on 6M and I'm hoping 6M goes wide open this
    Solar Cycle 25, after all I am 84 years old and probably this is my
    last solar cycle.

    "I need more Euro stations and am sorely lacking on the Middle East
    and parts of Africa. I cannot compete with you East Coasters.
    Namibia was coming in the other day, but the Midwest and east
    coasters fought it out. No luck so I gave up. Ah, but I get even
    with you easterners since the Pacific area is a piece of cake here
    in Los Angeles.

    "About Solar Cycle 19. I was a teenager when licensed in 1955 as a
    Novice. I heard stations from all over the world on HF and 6M. I
    hurried up and got my Tech license and then my General a few years
    later.

    "HF and 6M stations were coming in 24/7 from all over the world. I
    only had 90 watts and a dipole, all on AM, but WOW the stuff I
    worked and heard was just incredible.  Mostly peaking around
    1956-1957!"

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past two weeks, several active regions crossed the solar
    disk, the most significant was the trio of AR3140, AR3141 and
    AR3145, which crossed the central meridian on November 10-11.

    "Most attention was drawn to the magnetically complex and almost
    daily flare-producing AR3141, which allowed a smaller version of
    itself to grow in its northwestern part. The result (see https://bit.ly/3Askfyi[1] ) reminded fans of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the
    Galaxy President Zaphod Beeblebrox.'

    "The solar flux has not dropped below 130 sfu since November 5,
    while the Earth's magnetic field has been quiet since November 9.
    The result has been a relatively long period of above-average
    shortwave propagation conditions.

    "Beginning November 17, we expected an increase in geomagnetic
    activity as a consequence of, among other things, the CME of
    November 14. However, there will likely be a delay of a day or two
    from the original forecast. Therefore, if the disturbance begins on
    November 18 or 19, preferably during the daylight hours, there may
    be further improvement in conditions, and deterioration in the next
    phase of the disturbance."

    ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend. Even if you are not a serious
    contest operator, it is easy and fun to give out fresh contacts to
    stations on the air, especially toward the end of the event when
    participants are eager for new, fresh stations.

    A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM[2]

    Here is a video that makes it appear there is a Sun serpent:

    https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR[3]

    Thanks to reader David Moore for the following online stories on
    solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3V6jinh[4]

    https://bit.ly/3V0isIY[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16, 2022 were 79, 57, 65,
    74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7,
    137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a
    mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2,
    with a mean of 3.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3Askfyi
    [2] https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM
    [3] https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR
    [4] https://bit.ly/3V6jinh
    [5] https://bit.ly/3V0isIY
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 3 00:21:11 2022
    12/02/2022

    No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24 to 30.  But sunspots were visible every day.  Then on December 1 three new sunspot groups emerged.  The sunspot number rose from 12 to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week (November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from 66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

    Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to 18.6,and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

    On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past month.  No doubt this produced aurora.  The next day the disturbance continued, with collage A index at 51.  These are very large numbers.

    The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted.  This is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter.  We might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.

    Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130, 115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to 6, 2023.

    The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2 to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21, then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18 and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3, 2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed significantly from the week before.

    The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's magnetic field mostly increased.

    The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in the solar wind hit the Earth.  In the ionosphere we could first observe an increase in MUF.  Further development of the disturbance continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave propagation.

    Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity, but without the possibility of more precise timing.

    On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the southeastern limb of the Sun.  So solar activity will not drop but will probably rise again over the next few days.

    Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better. In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."

    Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number Series"

    https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX[1]

    This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:

    https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/[2]

    Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.

    Solar wind news:

    https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8]

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9]
     .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]  .

    Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60, 56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46.  10.7 cm flux was 109.7, 108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24, with a mean of 18.6.  Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18, 20, and 17, with a mean of 14.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX
    [2] https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/
    [3] https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW
    [4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive.propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 16 16:28:23 2022
    12/16/2022

    Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the
    great conditions during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter contest.

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
    jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from
    137.5 to 150.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing
    from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from 9.1 to 6.

    Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators is an ideal
    combination for favorable HF propagation.

    New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new
    sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, and three more on
    December 10, another on December 13 and one more on December 14.

    N0JK commented on the ARRL 10 Meter contest:

    "What a difference a year makes. 10 was wide open this year for the
    ARRL 10M contest with strong single hop F2 from Kansas to both
    coasts. Europe and Japan in, and I completed WAC (Worked All
    Continents). Operated fixed mobile with 1/4 wave whip. Solar flux
    this year was 148, last year only 78."

    The latest prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at
    164, 162, 160, 158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16-22, then 120 on
    December 23-28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29-31, 145 on
    January 1-8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9-12, and
    115 on January 13-18, then 120 on January 19-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-17, 10 on December
    18, 8 on December 19-20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21-23, 20 on
    December 24-28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29 through
    January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, 8 on January 6, 5 on January
    7-14, 10 on January 15-16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on January 17-20,
    and 20 on January 21-24.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Evolving solar activity was erratic over the last seven days,
    starting with the Earth entering a high-speed solar wind stream (up
    to 600 km/s) on 8 December.

    "It came from a canyon-shaped coronal hole that approached the
    western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic filament
    erupted in the Sun's southern hemisphere, but the CME was weak.

    "We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around December
    12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar wind slowed
    to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the Earth's
    magnetic field calmed down.

    "On 12 December, nine groups of sunspots were observed on the Sun,
    the largest number so far in the 25th Solar Cycle. Two days later
    there were eleven sunspot groups.

    "Of these, two regions (AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta-Gamma
    magnetic configuration) had moderately strong flares (the strongest
    on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger
    effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz). The ejected CMEs have missed
    the Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The
    increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore
    the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.

    "Decrease in solar activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and
    worsening of short wave disturbances can be expected after December
    20."

    The Dellinger Effect is an SID, or "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance."

    https://bit.ly/3HCHytO[1]

    David Moore shares this about our Sun's middle corona:

    https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O[2]

    Nine new sunspots. I do not agree that they are dangerous:

    https://bit.ly/3FuPniB[3]

    Interesting speculation. What happens to cryptocurrency during a
    Carrington event?

    https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR[4]

    Newsweek reports on the terminator event:

    https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3[5]

    More and more news about flares:

    https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc[6]

    https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK[7]

    https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k[8]

    Another Solar Cycle 19?

    https://bit.ly/3FYgioi[9]

    N0JK reports:

    "Some sporadic-E to W1 from Kansas December 15. Logged K1SIX FN43."

    More 6 meter news from KM0T:

    "Well, it took since 1999, but I finally worked my first ZL. In
    fact, 8 of them. Opening lasted on and off here for about an hour.
    Started hearing them just after 0000 UTC. EN40s were working them
    first for about 10 minutes before, which tipped me off. I Then
    worked AA7A in Arizona at +25, so there was a link perhaps to TEP F2
    hop.

    "There was one station calling an FO, but never saw any report of
    the monitoring FO station showing up on PSK reporter. FO was on the
    exact path to ZL, but I don't think there was a hop there, perhaps a
    blind caller to FO. If anyone actually heard them or worked them,
    let us know as that would be an interesting path.

    "My antennas were as low to the ground as they could be due to the
    ice storm.  Bottom antenna about 25 feet.  (Stacked 6el over 6el,
    20' apart.)

    "Now that I think about it, flux was 151 and SSN 148.

    "I'm pretty sure it was E-skip link, just like when I worked Chatham
    Island here some months ago.

    "The SW had all kinds of storms (as the whole USA did).  I heard snow
    and rain and 'thunder snow' in Arizona.

    "That would make sense of such a strong E-skip link to the SW. With
    the flux only at 151, seems to me this is a good number for TEP if
    you're in the right spot, but not enough to make it to the upper
    Midwest with true F2.

    "I was lucky that our area had ice only in the morning.  It rained
    pretty much all day with bouts of ice, but by the time evening came
    around, my ice was off the antennas.

    "Signals were strong actually. I gave -01 to -17 reports on the ZLs.
    +25 and just below given to stateside 7-land stations I worked in
    between the ZLs.

    "First ZL was at 0003 - ZL3NW with -11 sig - I got a -07 report.
    Strongest ZL was at 0033 - ZL3JT with a -01 sig.  He gave me a +00.

    "Last ZL was ZL1AKW, where the spotlight moved a bit north.  At 0107
    UTC - he had -06 sig and I got a -19 report."

    He did not mention a mode but judging from the signal reports it was
    probably FT8 or FT4.

    W2ZDP reported on December 14:

    "There was a great 6 meter opening yesterday. I first noticed it
    around 2020Z and worked 12 stations in grid 'EM,' all on FT8.

    "I also noticed that a few of them were working ZLs although I
    didn't see the response. After the local 2 meter net at 7 PM local
    time, I again worked a few stations in 'EM' when I started seeing
    both sides of ZLs working stateside stations. After several
    attempts, I finally worked ZL1RS at 0100Z from FM04. Not too bad for
    100 watts and a 4 element beam at 30 feet!"

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, has an
    informative new video:

    https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY[10]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022 were 115, 116, 111,
    141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143,
    149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with
    a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3,
    with a mean of 6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3HCHytO
    [2] https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O
    [3] https://bit.ly/3FuPniB
    [4] https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR
    [5] https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3
    [6] https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc
    [7] https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK
    [8] https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k
    [9] https://bit.ly/3FYgioi
    [10] https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY
    [11] k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Tue Jan 10 19:46:24 2023
    01/10/2023

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, one more on December 30 and another on January 1, then two more on January 5.

    Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot
    number rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14
    points to 157.8.

    On Thursday, January 5 the sunspot number rose to 103, above the
    average of 96.1 over the previous seven days.

    Predicted solar flux is 154 on January 6, 152 on January 7-8, 150 on
    January 9, 148 on January 10-11, then 146, 148 and 145 on January
    12-14, 140 on January 15-16, 145 on January 17-19, 150 and 155 on
    January 20-21, 160 on January 22-23, 165 on January 24-26, then 160,
    155, 155, 158 and 155 on January 27-31, 150 and 148 on February 1-2,
    145 on February 3-4, 140 on February 5-6, 150 on February 7-9, 145
    on February 10, 140 on February 11-12, and 145 on February 13-15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on January 6-7, 5 on January
    8-16, then 8, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on January 17-21, 5 on January
    22-24, then 8, 28, 15 and 10 on January 25-28, and 5 on January
    29-30, 18 on January 31 through February 1,15 and 10 on February
    2-3, and 5 on February 4-12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity increased so rapidly in recent years that earlier
    last year it already reached the level predicted for July 2025, the
    predicted peak of the current 25th solar cycle. The year 2022 ended
    with the highest monthly sunspot count in 7 years.

    "Solar flares are already routinely of moderate magnitude (M-class
    in X-rays), while geomagnetic disturbances are so far only very
    rarely in a higher class than G1 (minor). In the G1 class was also
    the disturbance on 30 December, which was triggered by a CIR
    (co-rotating interaction region) impact, as predicted.

    "This week the Earth is in the impact zone of possible eruptions in
    the AR3176 sunspot group directly opposite our planet, which
    produces M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, on December 30
    at 1938 UTC, was class M3.7, which sent a CME toward Earth with an
    expected arrival on January 4 - and the prediction proved correct -
    the disturbance began at 0254 UTC.

    "The CMEs filled the space between the Sun and Earth, and clouds of
    solar plasma shielded the incoming cosmic rays enough to reach a
    six-year low.

    "Thus, since 26 December, we can observe the 'Forbush Decline,'
    named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic
    rays in the early 20th century and first noticed the relationship
    between them and solar activity. With more CMEs hitting Earth, the
    cosmic ray decline will grow.

    "On January 3 at 1058 UTC, something exploded on the far side of the
    Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) detected a bright
    CME sweeping across the southeastern limb of the Sun. The source of
    the outburst was likely the old sunspot AR3163, which has been on
    the Sun's far side for the past two weeks. We are now starting to
    see it on the solar disk as AR3182, and we might tentatively expect
    an X-class flare from it.

    "The Geminid meteor shower is coming to Earth these days. On the
    first three days of January, the most meteors arrived on January 3
    at 2127 UTC when the Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) of 125.3 was
    calculated. Also, the activity of the sporadic-E layer in the
    ionosphere increased, which we immediately noticed in the fading
    shortwave propagation conditions (because sporadic-E is sporadic).

    "ZHR (Zenithal Hourly Rate) of a meteor shower is the number of
    meteors a single observer would see in an hour of peak activity if
    it was at the zenith, assuming the observing conditions are
    excellent (when and where stars with apparent magnitudes up to 6.5
    are visible to the naked eye)."

    OK1HH mentioned sunspot numbers are ahead of the consensus forecast for Solar Cycle 25, so we will compare averages from a year ago with current numbers.

    In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 for 2022, the average
    sunspot number reported was 36.4, and 97 in the current report.
    Average solar flux a year ago was 91.4, compared to 157.8 this week.

    Reader David Moore sends along this link about our Sun's corona:

    https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz[1]

    Here is an article on Siberian Radioheliograph:

    https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm[2]

    Solar outburst:

    https://bit.ly/3X6oUio[3]

    A record of old sunspot numbers can be found here:

    https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2[4]

    Solar Terrestrial Activity Report:

    http://www.solen.info/solar/[5]

    Identifying unknown HF signals:

    https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022 through January 4, 2023 were
    113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. 10.7 cm flux
    was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean
    of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7,
    and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10,
    9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz
    [2] https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm
    [3] https://bit.ly/3X6oUio
    [4] https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2
    [5] http://www.solen.info/solar/
    [6] https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 13 14:52:15 2023
    01/13/2023

    Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could
    be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and
    by far the all time largest.

    But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is
    emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak
    about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.

    Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look
    forward to great HF propagation for years to come.

    There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week,
    January 5-11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January
    8, another on January 9  two more January 10 and still another on
    January 12, when the sunspot number was 151.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and average
    daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to the previous seven
    days.

    On Thursday, January 12 the noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far
    above the 181.2 average for the previous week.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and
    middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

    Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation
    Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only
    42.4 (135.9 now) and average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now).
    10 and 12 meters now have openings every day.

    The solar flux prediction was revised dramatically upward between
    the Wednesday numbers in Thursday's ARRL Letter and the Thursday
    numbers in this bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.

    Predicted solar flux is 210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and
    204 on January 15-17, 200 on January 18-19, then 180, 160, 130 and
    135 on January 20-23, 140 on January 24-26, 145 on January 27, then
    155, 155 and 160 on January 28-30, 170 on January 31 through
    February 2, 175 and 180 on February 3-4, 185 on February 5-6, then
    180, 178 and 175 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-12, 145 on
    February 13, 140 on February 14-16, 130 on February 17-18 and
    increasing to 160 by the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on
    January 16-17, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18-21, 5 on January
    22-24, then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January 29-31,
    then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-5, then 10, 12 and 8
    on February 6-8, 5 on February 9-13, then 8, 15, 10 and 7 on
    February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "There was a 6 meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America
    January 6, 2023 around 1530 UTC, mostly between the Southeast United
    States and Ecuador. Solar Flux was 172.4.

    "Later there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I logged W4IMD
    (EM84) at 1942 UTC and W7JW (EN82) on 6 meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC
    January 6.

    "High Solar Activity this week."

    N0JK writes "The World Above 50 MHz" column in QST.

    https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz[1]

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
    helioseismology after the beginning of this year, showed that the
    region of active heliographic longitude, gradually approached the
    eastern limb of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their
    arrival. Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11.
    Yet one solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two
    turns back (November 18) only 116.

    "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
    confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
    maximum at 0057 UTC.

    Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles never
    left the Sun.

    "In the following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly
    erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X-class
    flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC).

    "Since most of the large flares in the last few days occurred when
    it was nighttime in Europe, blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
    especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
    the eruption on January 9 at 1850 UTC that a shortwave blackout was
    seen in the western Atlantic, including east coast of the U.S. On
    January 10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new
    sunspot group AR3186.

    "As active regions approach the central meridian, the probability of
    Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or more
    importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
    levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
    conditions gradually somewhat worsens during disturbances that are
    difficult to predict accurately."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Pennsylvania (FN20jq) reported, "On
    Thursday, January 12, 29.6 MHz FM went active with 3-hop sporadic-E transatlantic propagation to England, Spain from 1346 thru 1600 UTC,
    then to single hop Es to Puerto Rico at 1813 UTC.

    "Readability ranged from (1) unreadable to (4) practically no
    difficulty, Strength ranged from (1) faint - signals barely
    perceptible to (5) fairly good signals. All signals had deep QSB.

    "Time UTC:    Callsign:      Grid:           Miles
    1346               G3YPZ        JO02bs      3,494
    1354,1528      G4RIE          IO83rn       3,372
    1413,1521      2E0PLO       IO91wm     3,511
    1600               EA2CCG      IN92ao      3,660
    1813               KP4NVX      FK68vl       1,625"

    Here is a photo of the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR[2]

    One of a Solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3W9EWav[3]

    Solar news in the Washington Post:

    https://wapo.st/3iul6sN[4]

    An article on Radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV[5]

    The Parker Solar Probe:

    https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic[6]

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers January 5 through 11, 2023 were 103, 101, 104, 117,
    142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3,
    172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a
    mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8,
    with a mean of 6.1.
     


    [1] https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz
    [2] https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR
    [3] https://bit.ly/3W9EWav
    [4] https://wapo.st/3iul6sN
    [5] https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV
    [6] https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic
    [7] https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 20 16:08:29 2023
    01/20/2023

    Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 opened with "Wow!"
    I don't know what to say about this week, except it is beyond wow.

    This actually has me thinking about Solar Cycle 19.

    Lately we have seen solar flux at the same levels we saw at the peak
    of Solar Cycle 23. If we are about 30 months away from the peak of
    this Solar Cycle 25, could this get us to the 1957-59 levels last
    seen in Solar Cycle 19? Stories from that time tell of worldwide
    coverage 24x7 on 10 meter AM from low power mobile stations.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while
    average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2. Yesterday the thrice
    daily solar flux reported from the Penticton, British Columbia
    observatory indicated rising solar flux at 224.6, 226.1 and 230.1.
    These are recorded at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. It is the middle
    number, at local noon, that is recorded as the official number for
    the day.

    From Spaceweather.com: "If sunspot production continues apace for
    the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year
    high."

    Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9,

    On January 15 the planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very
    high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy
    throughout the week, due to flares and CMEs. On that day in
    Fairbanks, Alaska the college A index was 53, a very high number.
    There was a large polar cap absorption event.

    Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January
    12-18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January
    15, and two more, one each on January 17 and 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 220 on January 20-21, 215 on January 22-23,
    210 on January 24-25, 215 on January 26-27, 185 on January 28-29,
    190 on January 30 through February 2, 195 and 200 on February 3-4,
    205 on February 5-6, 210 on February 7-11, then a big jump to 235
    and 230 on February 12-13, 225 on February 14-16, 220 on February
    17, then 215 on February 18-19, 210 and 200 on February 20-21, 190
    on February 22-23, and 185 on February 24-25. Solar flux is expected
    to rise above 200 again in the first week of March.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on January 20-22, 5 on
    January 23-24, then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January
    29 through 31, then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-6,
    then 12, 12, 15 and 12 on February 7-10, 5 on February 11-13, then
    8, 15, 10 and 7 on February 14-17, 5 on February 18-20, then 7, 18,
    10 and 7 on February 21-24, 5 on February 25-26, then 7, 18, 12 and
    8 on February 27 through March 2.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
    helioseismology at the beginning of this year, showed the region of
    active heliographic longitude gradually approached the eastern limb
    of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their arrival.

    "Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11. Yet one
    solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two turns
    back (November 18) only 116.

    "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
    confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
    maximum at 0057 UTC.

    "Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles
    never left the Sun.

    "In the following days, the activity of AR3182 was joined by the
    newly erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An
    X-class flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 1850
    UTC). Most of the large flares in the last few days occurred during
    nighttime in Europe. Blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
    especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
    the eruption on January 9 that a shortwave blackout was seen in the
    western Atlantic, including the East Coast of the U.S. On January
    10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new sunspot
    group AR3186.

    "As active regions approached the central meridian, the probability
    of Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or
    more importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
    levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
    gradually worsens, especially during disturbances that are difficult
    to predict accurately."

    Sam, KY8R commented on 30 meter propagation:

    "Reading your report it looks good, but I have to tell you 30M is
    like a dead horse in the Sonoran Desert."

    I replied:

    "On FT8 and I make many contacts on 30 meters, but it seems to be
    best around sunrise or sunset, before and after.

    "I just did a prediction with W6ELprop and it shows 30 meters from
    my location (CN87) open during daylight hours to the East Coast, and
    to Texas 24x7 with brief dropouts at 7am local here (1500 UTC) and
    10:30 PM (0630 UTC).

    "From your location, it looks different. To Texas it fades starting
    at 0200 UTC and stays dead until 1400 UTC and is strongest at 1500
    and 2330 UTC.

    "To Atlanta from DM33 (you) it is weakest from 1700-2100 UTC. Of
    course, these are statistical approximations."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania FN20jq is having fun
    on 10 meter FM.

    "Today (January 19) I made a 2-way QSO with John, AL7ID in Fairbanks
    for five minutes from 2028-2033 UTC on the 29.6 MHz national calling
    frequency, then QSY 29.5 FM.

    "I just barely heard him mention the QSY to 29.5.

    "Initially he was 2x2 QSB, then minutes later 3x4 QSB.

    "The FM signal was spreading apart due to F2 propagation and made it
    difficult at times.

    "He was my first Alaska 10-meter FM simplex contact!"

    Mike has a YouTube video of both his Alaska QSO, and another with
    Argentina:

    https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08[1]

    Earlier, Mike reported:

    "On Tuesday, January 17th, 29.6 MHz FM went active with multi-hop
    sporadic-E or F2 propagation into France, United Kingdom, Mexico,
    Alaska, and Argentina into the northeast USA.

    "Readability ranged from unreadable to practically no difficulty,
    Strength ranged from faint - signals barely perceptible to fair
    signals. All the signals had light QSB.

    "UTC:    Callsign:      Grid:
    1544     F5SDD         JN23qf
    1617     G4RIE          IO83rn
    1803     XE2LVM       DL92dp
    2040     AL7ID           BP64ku
    2040     LU1HJS        FF79XX"

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

    "Some interesting 6 meter propagation on January 16.

    "First, there appeared to be a 6 meter F2 opening between Puerto
    Rico and Colorado that morning. K0RI in DM78 and NO0T/P in DN70
    spotted KP4AJ in FK68 around 1550 UTC on 6 meter FT8. No
    intermediate stations spotted. The 10.7 cm solar flux was reported
    to be 234. [Jon had probably not seen the updated flux for that day
    yet. It was actually 228.1 and 234.3 the day before.]

    "Later there was sporadic-E from Kansas to Mexico. I logged XE2JS in
    DL68 at 1605 UTC. He was very strong.

    "That afternoon the TN8K DXpedition to the Congo Republic worked
    PJ4MM, V26OC, and FG8OJ on 6 meter FT8 via F-layer propagation around
    2230 UTC.

    "The ARRL January VHF contest is this weekend. There is a
    possibility of sporadic-E and even some F2 on 6 meters in this
    contest."

    Later Jon reported a 6 meter contact with Mexico.

    Sunspots in the news:

    https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4[2]

    Sky & Telescope with an article on giant sunspot group AR3190:

    https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/[3]

    An article on 11 year, 100 year, and 2300 year cycles:

    https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC[4]

    Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation [7]and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers January 12 through 18, 2023 were 151, 181, 170, 177,
    186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. 10.7 cm flux was 211.6,
    208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15,
    with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10,
    5, and 11, with a mean of 10.

     


    [1] https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4
    [3] https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC
    [5] https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jan 27 15:36:25 2023
    01/27/2023

    From the first week of this year, we saw a dramatic and welcome
    increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week,
    January 19-25.

    Average daily sunspot numbers starting with the final reporting week
    for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9. 173.4 and 162.

    Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8,
    181.2, 221.8 and 198.9.

    The northern hemisphere Winter Solstice was over a month ago, and
    through the next two months we will see a gradual transition toward
    Spring conditions.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking near
    205 on February 14-15, but flux values in the next few days are
    lower than those posted in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

    Predicted numbers are 150 on January 27-28, 145 on January 29-30,
    140 on January 31 through February 1, then 145, 150 and a big jump
    to 185 on February 2-4, 190 on February 5-6, 195 on February 7-12,
    200 on February 13, 205 on February 14-15, 200 on February 16-18,
    then 195, 200, and 190 on February 19-21, 185 on February 22-23, 180
    on February 24-25, then 175 on February 26 through March 1, then
    180, 185 and 190 on March 2-4. Flux values are expected to keep
    rising, peaking above 200 again after March 10.

    Predicted planetary A index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability
    is 8 on January 27-28, 5 on January 29 through February 1, 12 and 8
    on February 2-3, 5 on February 4-6, 12 on February 7-8, then 15, 12
    and 5 on February 9-11, 8 on February 12-13, 5 on February 14-17,
    then 8, 10, 10, 12 and 10 on February 18-22, 8 on February 23-25,
    then 5 on February 26-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on February 28 through
    March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - January 26, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "We had a week of increased solar activity with areas of sunspots
    visible to the naked eye. These were AR3190 and AR3192. The ejected
    CMEs produced auroras at higher latitudes. Since the geomagnetic
    disturbances were mostly short-lived, they did not cause a
    noticeable deterioration in shortwave propagation.

    "A CME hit the Earth on 17 January at around 2200 UTC. At the same
    time, it also hit the tail of comet ZTF (C/2022 E3) and broke it! A
    piece of the tail of comet ZTF was chipped off and then carried away
    by the solar wind.

    "In recent days, AR3190 was the largest and most active, but even it
    produced no more than moderately powerful flares. Both large
    regions, AR3190 in the southwest and AR3192 in the northwest, are
    beyond the edge of the solar disk by January 26. This is associated
    with a significant drop in solar activity. While we know of other
    active regions beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk, these are
    not large enough to expect a repeat of the January pattern in
    February. But we expect a similarly erratic pattern contributing to
    limited forecasting capabilities."

    Long time reader and contributor David Moore sends us this:

    https://bit.ly/3Jg7V9B[1]

    An article about Starspots:

    https://bit.ly/3Hxoywn[2]

    KA3JAW is still having fun with 10 meter FM on 29.6 MHz.

    On January 26 from 1430-1450 UTC he worked SV6EXH. With QSB, signals were 3x3 to 5x5. Earlier on January 21 at 1646 UTC he worked DM5TS, signals 4x5 with QSB.

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

    "Sunday morning (January 22, 2023) of the ARRL January VHF Contest
    had some great propagation on the 6 meter band. I operated portable
    signing W1AW/0 for VOTA. I was surprised when I turned on the radio
    after setting up and the FT8 band map screen was full of strong
    traces at 1505 UTC.

    "There was a surprise sporadic-E opening Sunday morning to W1, W2,
    W3, VE3, and W8. The Ontario stations were booming in and I had a
    pileup calling. Even some F2 with PJ4MM in FK52 peaking at -8 dB at
    1554 UTC.

    "Even more amazing MM0AMW decoded several W9 stations on 6 meters.
    Several stations I worked, such as KW9A were spotted into Scotland.
    Unsure if the propagation mode was multi-hop Es or F2?

    "Later that evening an Es -- TEP opening from the northeast states
    to South America."

    More dramatic solar warnings.

    https://bit.ly/3XGqNmL[3]

    Here is a prediction that was WAY off:

    https://bit.ly/3Jn9UJl[4]

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new video:

    https://youtu.be/Vuv3fRUD1Mo[5]

    This weekend is the CQ World-Wide 160-Meter CW contest.

    Check https://www.cq160.com[6] for details.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

    Sunspot numbers January 19 through 25, 2023 were 166, 197, 194, 166,
    144, 127, and 140, with a mean of 162. 10.7 cm flux was 226.1,
    217.5, 208.7, 198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a
    mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5,
    with a mean of 5.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3Jg7V9B
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Hxoywn
    [3] https://bit.ly/3XGqNmL
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Jn9UJl
    [5] https://youtu.be/Vuv3fRUD1Mo
    [6] https://www.cq160.com
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 3 13:52:19 2023
    02/03/2023

    Solar activity softened again this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers changing from 162 to 80.7, and solar flux from 198.9 to
    139.5.

    This is quite a dramatic shift from the excitement of a couple of
    weeks ago. To review, average weekly sunspot numbers from the first
    Propagation Forecast bulletin of 2023 went from 97 to 135.9, 173.4
    and 162. Average weekly solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, 221.8 and
    198.9.

    This variability is expected. Soon, perhaps in the next solar
    rotation, activity will rise again. The graphs we see of smoothed
    sunspot numbers are smooth because the numbers are averaged over a
    whole year.

    Geomagnetic numbers barely changed at all, with planetary A index
    shifting only from 8.1 to 7.9 and the middle latitude numbers did
    not change at all, 5.9 last week and 5.9 this week.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 3, 140 on February 4-5, 145
    on February 6, 150 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-13, 150 on
    February 14-16, 145 on February 17, 140 on February 18-19, 135 on
    February 20, 130 on February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 140 on
    February 26-27, 135 on February 28 through March 4, then 140 and 145
    on March 5-6, 150 on March 7-8. and 155 on March 9-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on February 3-5, 10 on
    February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, then 12, 5, 8 and 8 on February
    10-13, 5 on February 14-17, then 8, 7, 5 and 5 on February 18-21, 10
    on February 22-24, 5 on February 25-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on
    February 28 to March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8,
    then 12, 8 and 7 on March 9-11 and 5 on March 12-16.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere February 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "January this year was another surprise in the development of Solar
    Cycle 25, although we are still about two years away from its peak.
    Sunspots have grown larger, while the configuration of the magnetic
    fields that make them up has become increasingly complex, leading to
    an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions, so far only
    moderately powerful.

    "Solar flux between 12 and 21 January was above 200, while the solar
    wind increased.

    "In the last week, after the large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192
    fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, solar activity
    decreased. Between January 27-29 and February 1, solar wind
    intensified, apparently still blowing from the active regions that
    had already set.

    "Further, we expect an irregular evolution without major
    fluctuations. Helioseismological observations show that the activity
    of AR3190 and AR3192 continue on the Sun's far side. We'll have to
    wait another week for their reappearance on the eastern limb."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania reports again on his
    10 meter FM activity. He notes the daily solar flux dropped about
    100 points from mid-January, but good 10 meter propagation
    continues.

    Daily from 1300-1600 UTC he has good propagation to Europe, and is
    recently hearing Israel on 10 meter FM, about 5,700 miles away via
    F2 propagation.

    Mike notes, "Remember, 29.6 MHz is the national FM calling
    frequency, after making the initial contact you should QSY to a
    lower frequency, such as 29.5 or 29.49 MHz, to continue the QSO."

    Jim Hadlock, posting to the email list for the Western Washington DX
    Club noted that sunspot numbers recently hit a 9-year high.

    Jim posted this from Spaceweather.com:

    https://bit.ly/40DEzsj[1]

    Scott Avery, WA6LIE wrote:

    "Today was a fluke on 10 meters FT8.  I worked LA7HJA on FT8 on
    Thursday February 2nd at 0041 UTC.  He gave me a +04 and I gave him
    a -13 dB report.  Great reports and tried calling one other LA, but
    no luck. I confirmed the QSO with his ClubLog.

    "For the past month or so, European openings are from about
    1500-1730 UTC here in California.

    "Have no clue to the method of propagation on this late afternoon's
    QSO. LP?

    "I was just using a wire Delta Loop at 30' feedpoint, part of my
    inverted Vees all common feedpoint.

    "You know in this hobby you just got to be in the right place at the
    right time!"

    Toivo Mykkanen, W8TJM in Liberty Lake, Washington wrote:

    "Just had the best Aurora Path into Scandinavia since we last spoke
    last year. Today, 1 Feb, I was able to work 4 stations on SSB in
    Finland from Eastern Washington and all of them were 10-15 dB over
    S9 with a slight bit of flutter. It was 10 PM in Finland, well after
    15 meters usually shuts down there.   Was great to connect with my
    heritage as my parents are from Finland. The Finnish stations were
    working stations all across the USA and Canada."

    Bil Paul, KD8JUI, recalling television reception at the peak of
    Solar Cycle 19, wrote:

    "We were in Wisconsin, around '58 or '59, and we could usually only
    pick up with good reception two TV stations. One Sunday morning I
    got up and switched on the TV. I started getting good reception from
    the SE U.S., Georgia and Florida.

    "As time went on, the skip gradually changed to receiving Alabama
    and Mississippi, and finally ended with Texas. I'm not sure what
    frequencies were being used for those channels (2 through 13) back
    then."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2].

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

    Sunspot numbers January 26 through February 1, 2023 were 104, 84,
    76, 80, 67, 65, and 89, with a mean of 80.7. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
    144.9, 137.6, 137, 135.9, 137, and 133.5, with a mean of 139.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 10, 5, 5, 9, and 6, with a
    mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 5, 4, 6, and 3,
    with a mean of 5.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/40DEzsj
    [2] k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 10 16:05:38 2023
    02/10/2023

    A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

    Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week (February 2-8),
    two on February 3, one each on February 4-5, four more on February
    6, and two more on February 8.

    On February 9, three more sunspot groups emerged.

    Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
    sunspot over our Sun's southeast horizon.

    Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and
    average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

    On Thursday, February 9 both the sunspot number and solar flux were
    above the average for the previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150
    compared to the average 95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the
    average of 155.9. Both indicate an upward trend.

    Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A index from 7.9 to 11.7,
    middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.

    The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
    the reporting week.

    The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192 for February 9 (the
    actual noon solar flux was 214.9), then 195 on February 10-13. As
    you can see below, the Thursday prediction is more optimistic for
    the next few days.

    Predicted solar flux is 214 on February 10, 212 on February 11-13,
    then 208, 205 and 202 on February 14-16, 150 on February 17-18, then
    145, 140, 135, 130 and 135 on February 19-23, 130 on February 24-26,
    125 on February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135,
    150 and 160 on March 4-6, 155 on March 7-8, 160 on March 9, and 155
    on March 10-12, then 150 on March 13-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8  on February 10-11, then 5
    on February 12-17, 8 on February 18-19, 5 on February 20-21, 10 on
    February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27, and 5, 5, and 8
    on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3-5, then
    15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6-9, then 5 on March 10-16, 8 on March
    17-18, 5 on March 19-20 and 10 on March 21-23.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 9, 2023.

    "Solar activity was lower between 26 January and 6 February, as
    expected. Two weeks ago, large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192,
    fell behind the Sun's western limb. They have now appeared near the
    eastern limb as AR3217 and AR3218. In particular, the region of
    AR3217 was already letting us know of its activity with plasma
    bursts before we could observe it.

    "Thereafter we observed moderate flares in it. AR3217 and AR3218
    will now move through the solar disk, and the increase in solar
    activity will continue.

    "On February 7, rapidly developing sunspot group AR3213 suddenly
    appeared, where at most only two small spots could be observed
    shortly before. Medium-sized flares were observed in AR3213 in the
    following days.

    "Another new activity was the increase in the Earth's magnetic field
    activity starting on February 6.

    "The subsequent increase in the MUF (highest usable frequencies of
    the ionospheric F2 layer) has been slow and irregular so far. We
    will have to wait a few more days for its higher values."

    Check out Scott Craig, WA4TTK and his Solar Data Plotting Utility.
    He wrote it several decades ago back in the days of MS-DOS, and the
    Windows version still works today. It displays sunspot numbers and
    solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989:

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[1]

    Click the "Download SOL313W.ZIP" file to install the program, then
    download the updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is
    updated to last week, so you can try out the data insertion on this
    bulletin.

    He posted a new copy of the data file, provided by N1API.

    The utility will update the data every week by pointing it toward a
    copy of our bulletin in .txt format.

    The GRAPH.dat file is in text format and can be imported into a
    spreadsheet program to display the data any way you want.

    Tech Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/40J3g6m[2]

    https://bit.ly/3lojTnY[3]

    KB1DK sent this article about something occurring on our Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9[4]

    Larry, W0OGH in Cochise County, Arizona wrote:

    "Who says you can't have fun running QRP?

    "I started playing with QRP on CW, my KX3 at 10W and 10M 4 element
    Yagi just after February 1.

    "Why so late in the game? I don't know but maybe it was because the
    signals took such an upturn in strength.

    "Have been working some POTA stations QRP but no DX until February 1
    when I worked E77DX, OK9PEP, PA1CC, DS2HWS, UA1CE, YL3FT, UY2VM, HB0/HB9LCW, OT4A, ON4KHG, S01WS, ZX89L, CX5FK, 9A/UW1GZ, LZ1ND, PA3EVY, YU1JW, F6IQA, EA6ACA, ON5ZZ, GM4ATA, OP4F, EI0CZ and many more, all on 10 meters.

    "But the kicker and best of all was working EP2ABS on the morning of
    2/6/23 at 1654 UTC on 28.0258 MHz.

    "First time ever in 65 years that I have ever worked an Iran station
    much less heard one. He was really strong and calling CQ getting no
    answers. At the same time I called him, another station called as
    well but he came back to me.

    "Thereafter he had a pileup, but his signal started dropping off, so
    I caught him at the right time. Maybe a duct? Yep, the DX is out
    there on 10M and when the band is hot, you gotta be there.

    "I have even worked some AM stations on and above 29.000 MHz with
    QRP. Lots more fun than high power which in my case is 100W from my
    K3."

    A friend here in Seattle worked him on the same day, was very
    surprised, and mentioned a friend in California who worked EP2ABS
    with 100 watts and an 18 foot wire.

    Another "news" source reporting rising solar activity as some sort
    of existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP[5]

    https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz[6]

    A more reliable source:

    https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4[7]

    Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, latest report from February 5:

    https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2023 were 56, 74, 66, 79,
    139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux was 134.9,
    134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and
    12, with a mean of 7.6.

     


    [1] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
    [2] https://bit.ly/40J3g6m
    [3] https://bit.ly/3lojTnY
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9
    [5] https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP
    [6] https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz
    [7] https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4
    [8] https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Feb 24 17:32:24 2023
    02/24/2023

    Solar activity plunged this reporting week, although there was great
    the excitement when the solar flux on February 17 was reported as a
    record breaking 343.1.

    Because it was the noon reading, it is still reported by NOAA as the
    solar flux, but this was a false reading when the observatory at
    Penticton, British Columbia was swamped by energy from a solar
    flare.

    So, in this report, I have chosen the 1800 UTC flux value, which was
    165.

    Average daily sunspot number plunged from 182.4 to 107, while
    average solar flux dropped from 196.4 to 162.4. If I had not changed
    the 343.1 to 165, solar flux average would have been 187.9, more
    than 25 points higher than what we report here.

    Six new sunspots emerged over the week, one on February 16, one each
    on February 18 and 19, and three more on February 20, then one day
    after the end of the reporting week, on February 23, two more
    sunspot groups appeared.

    The solar flux prediction for the next month shows a peak value of
    180 for March 7-13.

    Predicted values are 148 on February 24, 146 on February 25-27, 142
    on February 28, 140 on March 1-2, 145, 150, 155, and 165 on March
    3-6, 180 on March 7-13, then 175 and 170 on March 14-15, 160 on
    March 16-17, then 155, 160, 150, 140 and 135 on March 18-22, 125 on
    March 23-24, 130 on March 25, then 140 on March 26-28, 145 on March
    29-30, then 150, 155 and 165 on March 31 through April 2. Beginning
    on April 3, predicted flux values are back to 180, continuing into
    the following week.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on February 24-25, then 12, 18,
    20, 16 and 10 on February 26 through March 2, 5 on March 3-4, then
    15, 18, 15 and 8 on March 5-8, 5 on March 9-14, 15 on March 15, 8 on
    March 16-17, 5 on March 18-20, 10 on March 21-23, 5 on March 24-25,
    and 8 on March 26-27, then 5, 8, 5, 5, 15, 18, 15 and 8 on March 28
    through April 4.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "A week ago, on February 17, we vainly awaited the arrival of a CME,
    and at least a weak G1-class geomagnetic storm. Instead, on February
    17 at 2016 UTC, we were treated to a strong X2.2-class solar flare
    in the newly emerging sunspot group AR3229. X-ray and UV radiation
    as well triggered the Dellinger Effect over the Americas.  The
    Dellinger Effect is a Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance.

    "Frequencies up to 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour
    after the flare. The arrival of the CME affected the Earth's
    magnetic field at 1039 UTC on February 20. However, most of the
    particle cloud passed outside the Earth, therefore there was no
    geomagnetic storm, but only an increase in geomagnetic activity.

    "The new AR3234 produced M-class flares in the following days.
    Dellinger events could only affect radio wave propagation up to 20
    MHz (as long as we had the Sun overhead, of course).

    "Thereafter no significant flares were observed, so no CMEs were
    directed toward us. But that may change when AR3234 turns toward
    Earth. In other words, when the Sun's rotation moves it to the
    central meridian, which will happen by the end of the week.
    Primarily, the overall activity of the Sun and most likely the
    Earth's magnetic field will depend on its activity."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "There was a nice 6 meter F2 opening on February 16.

    "I logged HC1MD/2 in grid FI57 on 50 MHz FT8 at 1916 UTC. I found
    this opening by checking the DX Maps website. HC1MD/2 had a strong,
    steady signal. I operated from home using an attic dipole antenna.
    Also logged HC2FG.

    "Other area 6 meter operators such as WQ0P (EM19) and KF0M (EM17)
    also worked stations in Chile. The K index was 4, which I suspect
    may have helped.

    "On February 18 a number of North American stations worked Robert,
    3B9FR around 1600 UTC on 6 Meter FT8.

    "3B9FR is on Rodriguez Island in the Indian Ocean off the southeast
    coast of South Africa.

    "Conditions were great in the ARRL International DX CW Contest on 10
    meters. I operated a couple of hours Sunday morning running 5 watts
    and a quarter wave whip fixed mobile. Worked over a hundred stations
    in Europe, the Caribbean, South America and Africa. Many of the
    Europeans were over S-9."

    Dick, K2KA wrote:

    "February 21 at 1544 UTC on 6 meters I worked FR4OO and then at 1558
    UTC I worked 3B9FR. Both were FT8. I happened to be at the radio at
    the right time. It was an amazing albeit brief opening here. They
    were obviously new countries for me on 6 meters. They were #120 and
    #121, respectively.

    "My station here is IC-7610, ACOM 700s, antenna is a M2 6M7JHV 7el
    on 30 ft. boom at 40 ft."

    A story about a Solar Tsunami:

    https://yhoo.it/3EyYOxJ[1]

    A time-lapse video of a Flare:

    https://bit.ly/3Ikc0aQ[2]

    Aki, JQ2UOZ wrote:

    "Last weekend I participated in the ARRL International DX CW Contest
    using an output power of 500 mW and a dipole antenna.

    "The band conditions on 10m and 15m were amazing. I worked 9 East
    Coast stations (VT, ME, DE, CT, NY, NH, PA, VA and FL) on 10m and 6
    East Coast stations (MA, 2 NH, 2 PA and MD) on 15m. Usually, the
    band conditions on 10m in February are not so good even at the
    sunspot cycle maximum. This is the first time I worked East Coast
    stations on 10m in the ARRL International DX CW Contest using 0.5W
    and a dipole. Thanks to good-ears stations who worked me."

    Scott Hower wrote:

    "With the exception of Thursday the 16th, 10 meters was hot this
    week. On Wednesday February 15th I decoded 3A2MW in Monaco around
    1233 to 1300 UTC using FT8 with his signal level as high as -13 dB.
    This is the first time I have ever been able to receive Franco's
    signal after years of trying on 10 meters. Unfortunately, he could
    not receive me. 9N7AA has also been coming in every morning (except
    the 16th) with levels as high as -1 dB using FT8 F/H. I finally
    logged him on Friday the 17th."

    Scott did not mention his call sign, but I think he may be K7KQ.

    Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/wm7tXN2EUCY[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22, 2023 were 101, 86, 109,
    112, 135, 106, and 100, with a mean of 107. 10.7 cm flux was 163.2,
    165, 167.2, 169, 159.8, 160.9, and 151.9, with a mean of 162.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 6, 6, 7, 8, 17, and 6, with a
    mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 21, 4, 5, 4, 6, 15, and 4,
    with a mean of 8.4.

     


    [1] https://yhoo.it/3EyYOxJ
    [2] https://bit.ly/3Ikc0aQ
    [3] https://youtu.be/wm7tXN2EUCY
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 3 19:45:52 2023
    03/03/2023

    This was a busy week for geomagnetic storms. A solar wind stream
    from an equatorial hole and a CME blew geomagnetic numbers seemingly
    off the scale, with the planetary A index on Monday hitting 94.
    Aurora was visible as far south as 40 degrees latitude. Imagine a
    line running from Reno, Nevada through Provo, Utah then Denver, then
    the Kansas-Nebraska state line, Quincy, Illinois, Dayton, Ohio and Philadelphia.

    This week the source of the 10.7 cm solar flux, the DRAO observatory
    at Penticton, British Columbia, was again saturated by solar wind on
    February 25 and the measurement was 279.3. NOAA corrected this to
    152, which I thought was a bit too low. The other recent saturation
    was on February 17 at 343.1, but for some reason NOAA let this
    stand.

    I corrected it in this bulletin to 165, which was that morning's
    1800 UTC reading:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[1]

    This week we saw two new sunspot groups appear on February 23,
    another on the following day, another on February 27, on February 28
    one more, two more on March 1, and another on March 2.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 107 to 126.3, but average
    daily solar flux declined from 162.4 to 158.2.

    Average daily planetary A index rose from 10.6 to 27.7.

    Over the next few weeks it appears that solar flux values should hit
    a peak around March 17-18.

    Predicted solar flux is 165 March 3-5, 170 and 175 on March 6-7, 180
    on March 8-9, 165 on March 10-12, 170 on March 13-15, 175 on March
    16, 180 on March 17-18, then 175, 170 and 165 on March 19-21, 160 on
    March 22-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March 27-28, then 145 on
    March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155 and 160 on March 31 through
    April 4, then 165 on April 5-8, and 170 on April 9-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, 20, 18, 16 and 8 on March 3-8,
    5 on March 9-14, then 15, 8, 8, 5, 8 and 15 on March 15-20, 5 on
    March 21-23, then 12, 16, 56, 32, 16 and 10 on March 24-29, 8 on
    March 30-31, then 16, 18, 15 and 8 on April 1-4, and 5 on April
    5-10.

    Note the predicted A index of 56 and 32 on March 26-27, suggest a
    return of this week's disturbance in the next solar rotation.

    Here is a Newsweek report about radio blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ[2]

    A story from Sky & Telescope:

    https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As[3]

    Click past all the offers and pop-ups to view this article:

    https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR[4]

    That report is from Western Washington, where I live. Unfortunately
    the sky was overcast, but observers in Eastern Washington were able
    to see the aurora. Remember that many of the aurora images you see
    were from cameras with a long exposure time, which makes them much
    brighter than what you see with unassisted vision.

    Thanks to spaceweather.com for this NASA movie of sunspot group
    AR3234 growing as it comes over our Sun's eastern limb:

    https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ[5]

    Spaceweather.com[6] also reported that the average sunspot number for
    February was among the highest of the last 10 years.

    Here is data on Solar Cycle 25 progress:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[7]

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 3-9, 2023:

    "Quiet: March 3-5, 9
    Unsettled: March 4-6, 8-9
    Active: March 6-7
    Minor storm: possible March 6-7

    "At February 27, we recorded the highest geomagnetic activity since
    2008. At Budkov observatory, the three last K indices of this day
    were at level 6. Over the next few days we expect geomagnetic
    activity decrease. Until Sunday, March 5, we expect mostly quiet
    conditions. More unsettled conditions are expected between Sunday,
    March 5, and Thursday, March 9.

    "Between March 6-7, active conditions with likely storming event is
    possible. Wednesday, March 7, we expect unsettled conditions.

    "Tomas Bayer, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Budkov
    observatory (BDV)."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere March 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "A week ago, we observed an increase in the size and flare activity
    of sunspot group AR3234 in the northeast of the solar disk. But more interesting was the activity in the northwestern quadrant, where a
    magnetic filament associated with the relatively little noticeable
    sunspot AR3229 erupted on February 24. It set off a chain reaction
    in which the filament lifted off and cut through the solar
    atmosphere at 1949 UTC.

    "In AR3229 a long-duration M3-class solar flare (LDE) at 2030 UTC,
    with a CME, partially directed toward Earth. At the same time,
    gaseous material flowed from an equatorial coronal hole in the solar atmosphere. Earth was hit by two CMEs on February 27 and 28. The
    arrival of the first one was followed by a G1 to G2 class
    geomagnetic storm, while the second was followed by a G3 class
    storm.

    "In the ever-growing sunspot group AR3234, already in the
    northwestern solar disk, an M8.6-class solar flare with a possible
    weak CME was observed at 1750 UTC on 28 February.

    "Simultaneously, the Dellinger effect knocked out shortwave links at frequencies up to 30 MHz around the Pacific Ocean with a duration up
    to one hour.

    "The CME is expected to arrive at Earth perhaps as late as March 4,
    delivering only a glancing blow to the Earth's magnetic field.
    Starting on March 4, a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is likely.
    Solar activity will not decrease, as another active region in the
    southeastern solar disk will emerge in the meantime."

    Here is a conversation about 6 meters:

    "Gents, some 6M DX to report here at KM0T.

    "Last few days, February 25-27, there was some DX worked locally so
    I was trying to keep an eye on things. Then we got some aurora from
    some flare impacts, and sure enough on the 27th got a few ZL and VK
    decodes, lots of the Midwest worked some, but too scattered for me.
    Also decoded FK8CP, who I have been chasing a card from a 2014 CW
    contact.

    "So Tuesday afternoon the 28th, was at the radio doing other shack
    items when I saw a FT8 decode from VK4HJ at 2306 UTC working a W9
    station. Proceeded to call him and worked at 2309 UTC with his -10
    signal. Worked VK4WTJ at 2315 UTC with him coming in at -15.

    "I then started to see decodes from FK8CP and FK8HA on and off for
    the next 15 minutes. I worked FK8HA in RG37 with his -18 digs at
    2344 UTC, I received a -20 report, took about 4 minutes once I got
    his attention.

    "During this whole time, I was calling FK8CP on and off between
    trying others when they popped up. VK4MA came in at 2351 UTC with
    his -09 digs. FK8CP was calling CQ WI all the time, but with FT8 you
    can still answer, so I kept thinking why is he calling for
    Wisconsin? Then figured that it was 'West Indies' (lol). He finally
    relented and I worked him on FT8 around 0009 UTC with -13 sig report
    from him.

    "The whole thing about New Caledonia is that I worked FK8CP on 6M in
    2014 on CW, but forgot back then to try for a card. Going through my
    logs for 6M DXCC showed the errors of my ways and I started to send
    cards back around 2020 since he was not LoTW. First one got returned
    around 6 months later, the post master said he did not know why,
    perhaps a typhoon. Then I tried again, but no answer for a long
    time. Got returned again, about a year later. I thought perhaps he
    was a SK, but his web page on QRZ did not leave any other contact
    info other than regular mail.

    "I forgot about it for a long time until I decoded him a few days
    ago. I checked his QRZ page and it said due to Covid-19, mail has
    been an issue for a very long time. So I got my card out and
    readdressed a new envelope, went to the post office this morning and
    mailed the card again. Wow, then I worked him that same day on FT8!
    9 years later - too funny!

    "73, Mike, KM0T.

    "PS - Definitely F2, Not strong, but in and out. No Es to the SW
    that I could tell. I worked VK and ZL on SSB 10 meters earlier,
    about 2200 UTC with 80W. That band was in good shape and quiet, had
    a 20 minute chat with a ZL with no QSB."

    I (K7RA) asked, "When there is a geomagnetic storm and we see
    openings on 6 meters, is it always due to auroral propagation?"

    The response from Mike King, KM0T, to K7RA:

    "Tad, in my experience on 6M, aurora gives your standard aurora
    propagation early on during the actual aurora. Northern latitude
    Midwest and NE - NW stations, with the typical auroral sound to SSB
    and CW.

    "Then later that same night we can get auroral-E skip, which may or
    may not sound like aurora. Very typical to work Alaska later at
    night after an aurora or auroral Es (at least from my location).

    "Then after a night of aurora, I have always been on the lookout the
    next day for F2/TEP/Chordal hop. When the flux is hovering around
    160 or so, and there is really no F2 at 50 MHz from the Midwest, an
    Aurora the previous day means that we got hit with a CME and the
    whole thing could still be charged up. Thus when we get full
    sunlight, I have seen many times F2/TEP propagation from the Midwest
    that I would not normally get. It lasts just that one day typically
    unless we get hit with more from the Sun.

    "From here in the Midwest it's East or West F2 to Caribbean, Africa,
    Indian Ocean, South America and Oceania. I don't believe I have seen
    it to EU the next day.  (If you're in Texas, SW - SE, even better
    for you - but they get that TEP much more than us...location,
    location, location.)

    "I have worked Scandinavia over the pole path a few times at
    nighttime during an aurora via aurora-Es or F2, could never really
    tell. So if E-skip it would be multi hop like a summertime day, but
    had an auroral quality to those contacts. In my mind I always called
    aurora enhanced F2.

    "For me, having a decent aurora with flux being around 160, I feel
    it's one of the best clues I get for looking for when 6M might do
    wild things the next day. Throw this coming summertime auroras in
    during the 6M E-skip season, those days after an aurora might be
    crazy!

    "73 Mike, KM0T"

    Here is a response from Jon Jones, N0JK:

    "Tad, Mike:

    "Agree with Mike's comments and good summary.

    "The aurora geomagnetic activity can increase F-layer MUF,
    especially when in the sunlight. Sometimes during an aurora F2 can
    appear. The more common scenario is the one Mike describes. Aurora
    during the night and F2 propagation the next day. That is what
    happened Monday February 27.  Tuesday was some left over F2, K still
    elevated.

    "Yesterday (March 1) the K index around 2. I copied Pipe, CE3SX for
    4 FT8 sequences on 50.313 MHz at 2111 UTC. No luck with a contact.
    Saw him send K0SIX (EN35) 'RR73.'

    "Yes and left over F2 the 2nd day after the aurora like yesterday,
    is normally only North South Propagation for me (Midwest) over the
    TEP zone, which I worked one CE station for fun, decoded a bunch of
    LUs, CX and CE, but had to leave for hockey practice."

    Jon Jones added at 2035 UTC on Thursday:

    "6 Meters popped open to Ecuador early in the afternoon March 2 on
    F2. I was at work, able to take a break around 1910 UTC. Set up from
    car - 1/4 wave whip and 10 watt MFJ-9406 radio. Many very loud
    decodes on FT8 from Ecuador. Called several stations. At 1925 UTC
    HC1DX called me on FT8 and we completed. Received a '-17 dB' report.
    N0LL/P was on from rare grid EN01 and worked several in Ecuador.
    Around 1900 UTC seems to be a good time frame for 6 Meter F2 to the
    south."

    The phone portion of the ARRL DX Contest is this weekend.

    http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.[9] When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1 2023 were 108, 130,
    129, 120, 192, 100, and 105, with a mean of 126.3. 10.7 cm flux was
    148.2, 164.1, 152, 159, 161.2, 160.9, and 162, with a mean of 158.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 6, 10, 26, 94, 28, and 8,
    with a mean of 27.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 4, 9, 18, 60,
    19, and 6, with a mean of 18.9.

     


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
    [2] https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As
    [4] https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR
    [5] https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ
    [6] http://Spaceweather.com
    [7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 10 16:59:23 2023
    03/10/2023

    So far this month, two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1,
    another one on March 2, three more on March 3, one more on March 5,
    two more on March 6, and another on March 7, then two more on March
    9.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.3 to 143.6.

    Average daily solar flux changed from 158.2 to 181.6

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 27.7 to 14.6, and
    average middle latitude numbers went from 18.9 to 10.7, reflecting
    the quieter conditions following the upset the week before.

    The Penticton observatory, the source for solar flux data is way up
    at 49.5 degrees north longitude, in eastern British Columbia. For
    much of the year the Sun is low in the sky, so all winter they do
    their thrice daily readings at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. But on March
    1 they shifted over to 1700, 2000 and 2300 UTC. The local noon (2000
    UTC) reading is the official solar flux for the day.

    You can see the data and the dates here:

    https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5- flux-en.php[1]

    The Vernal Equinox, when the northern and southern hemispheres are
    bathed in equal solar radiation is less than two weeks away.

    Predicted solar flux shows values peaking now, and again on March
    16-19.

    Flux values are expected at 178, 175, and 170 March 10-12, 172 on
    March 13-14, 170 on March 15-16, 180 on March 17-18, 175, 170 and
    165 on March 19-21, 160 on March 22-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on
    March 27-28, 145 on March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on
    March 31 through April 4, 165 on April 5-8, 170 on April 9-11, 175
    on April 12, 180 on April 13-14, then 175, 170 and 165 on April
    15-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 8, 10 and 8 on March 10-13, 5 on
    March 14-15, 8 on March 16-17, then 5, 8 and 16 on March 18-20, 5 on
    March 21-23, then 12, 16, 26, 18 and 10 on March 24-28, then 8, 24
    and 16 on March 29-31, 20 on April 1-2, 16 and 8 on April 3-4, and 5
    on April 5-10, then 16, 8, 8, 5, and 8 on April 11-15.

    Dr. Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com posted this animation captured
    by NASA's SDO showing sunspot AR3245 splitting:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif[2]

    AR3245 is seen in the SE quadrant (lower left).

    OK1HH wrote:

    "The most interesting phenomenon in the last seven days was the X2
    class solar flare in the AR3234 sunspot group. Flare peaked on 3
    March at 1752 UTC, which caused the shortwave fade over the Americas
    at frequencies up to 30 MHz.

    "The G1-class geomagnetic disturbance on 4 and 5 March was triggered
    by CMEs from the M8.6-class flare of 28 February, despite the fact
    that the particle cloud was not heading directly toward Earth.

    "Activity in the growing sunspot groups AR3242 and AR3245, as well
    as the action of a setting, long, narrow, and closing coronal hole
    in the northwestern solar disk, were key to the subsequent
    evolution.

    "Today, March 9, a CME from the M5.8-class solar flare of March 6 at
    0229 UTC appears to be arriving at Earth. This is evidenced by this
    morning's (March 9) increase in solar wind particle concentration,
    which is a fairly good precursor for a subsequent increase in solar
    wind speed and enhancement in geomagnetic activity.

    "After the disturbance subsides, quieter conditions and a
    continuation of the current level of solar activity is expected."

    Gene, N9TF in Tennessee wrote, concerning openings on March 8-9:

    "I am usually the little pistol on the sidelines watching stations,
    either on my waterfall, pskreporter, or DX Maps working the 6M DX.

    "Well, the opening to VK4 yesterday late afternoon/evening, found
    this station in the thick of things...FINALLY!

    "I was tipped off by my brother N9PGG Greg in FM05 around 2200 UTC
    in a text message, that he was receiving FK8HA on 6m FT8, and a
    little later he saw stations in Alabama working VK4MA. I decoded
    FK8HA a couple times around 2230 UTC on 3/8/2023 but only -20 and
    just a couple sporadic decodes. I was watching DX maps and saw the
    path from VK to grids just to the south of me on fire.

    "I started CQing around 2230 UTC and saw that I was hitting XE2KK
    with a +4 on pskreporter, and two other XE. That looked like a good
    E opening to the correct path to VK4 if I had enough signal to ride
    the TEP. (Was it TEP?)

    "Finally, around 2342 UTC I decoded VK4MA at -13, and Paul was now
    being decoded consistently here and getting stronger. I started
    calling him at about 2345, and at 0007 UTC 3/9/2023 I got a reply
    R-19, sent my RR73 and Paul moved on to the next caller. I thought I
    was in the log...NOT!

    "I noticed two callers after me, AB4IQ, Paul had finished with 73. I immediately hit what I thought was TX4 (a text string in WSJT-x) to
    send RRR this time but hit TX2 for a few transmissions until I
    caught that mistake. Finally, 16 minutes of sending RRR, Paul
    responded with 73. Relief and then satisfaction set in. I'm in the
    log! Paul peaked at +1 for a while during the opening.

    "Antenna is just a 3 element (A50-3S) only up 18' above ground,
    behind our backyard shed 120' from the house/shack. I have 125' of
    DXE400MAX buried from the house to the back of the shed to a coax
    distribution box with grounding and surge arrestors. Then 40' of
    LM4-400 from the box to the antenna. The rig is a K3S, and I run 85
    watts output on FT8. So, of those 85 watts out at the rig, the
    antenna is seeing about 45-50 watts, at only 18' above ground, it's
    about 7' lower than the minimum optimal 25' above ground for 6m.

    "The 6m antenna set up is temporarily permanent at this time. It is
    kluged together with a 5' tripod anchored into the ground with 2,
    24" nails in each leg. The mast is 4 sections of 4' army surplus
    tent poles. I have an eve bracket at 10' to hold the whole thing
    secure, snug but not completely tight so I can hand turn the mast
    section above. Tent poles are just slid together, and the joints are
    duct taped. Like I said...kluged together! It has just recently
    survived 75mph straight wind gusts for 2 hours straight.

    "Anyway, just wanted to give a 'successful' report from EM66IJ. It
    was fun finally being able to participate in an opening!"

    A british tabloid explains astrophysics:

    https://bit.ly/3L8NHja[3]

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, releases videos to her Patreon subscribers
    12 hours before the general release.

    I got this early Friday at 0800 UTC, and since the ARRL will not
    release this more than 12 hours after the release to her
    subscribers, I am able to post it here:

    https://youtu.be/TJBsOuohrgE[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8, 2023 were 103, 133, 122, 137,
    173, 191, and 146, with a mean of 143.6. 10.7 cm flux was 168.8,
    190.9, 181.6, 179.8, 188, 180.3, and 181.9, with a mean of 181.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 22, 15, 22, 15, 11, and 8,
    with a mean of 14.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 16, 10, 17, 11,
    7, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

     


    [1] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
    [2] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif
    [3] https://bit.ly/3L8NHja
    [4] https://youtu.be/TJBsOuohrgE
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 17 16:20:01 2023
    03/17/2023

    Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, two on March 9,
    another on March 10, one more on March 12, and another two on March
    14.

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week.

    Average daily sunspot numbers softened from 143.6 to 118.7, and
    average daily solar flux from 181.6 to 153.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 135, 140, 138, and 135 on March 17-20, then
    132, 132 and 130 on March 21-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March
    27-28, 145 on March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March
    31 through April 4, 165 on April 5-8, 170 on April 9-11, then 175,
    180, 180, 175, 170 and 165 on April 12-17, 160 on April 18-19, 155
    on April 20-21, then 140, 150, 150 and 145 on April 22-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on March 17-21,
    then 5, 5, 12, 16 and 26 on March 22-26, then 18, 10, 8, 24 and 22
    on March 27-31, then 16 on April 1-2, then 14, 12, 8 and 10 on April
    3-6, 8 on April 7-8, then 5, 8, 22 and 8 on April 9-12, 5 on April
    13-14, then 8 and 16 on April 15-16, 5 on April 17-19, then 12, 16,
    26 and 18 on April 20-23.

    Check out this propagation modeling site, sent from WB6MPH.

    https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[1]

    Jon, N0JK wrote:

    "On March 15 there was a CME impact. The Kp peaked at 6. 6 meters
    opened to South America. I logged HK3O in FJ24 at 2042 UTC on FT8.
    Decoded many stations in Argentina and Ecuador."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 16, 2023 from OK1HH, F.K. Janda.

    "The level of solar activity is only slightly lower than during the
    last solar rotation, but this is especially true below the Sun's
    equator. There is higher activity on the far side of the Sun.

    "There was exceptional phenomenon recorded by coronagraphs on
    satellites on March 13. It was a 'halo CME' that apparently left the
    Sun at more than 3,000 km/s. Although the plasma cloud was not
    heading towards Earth, it still touched it. We can't pinpoint its
    source, but helioseismic maps show a pair of large active regions on
    the far side of the Sun. Both will emerge within days on the eastern
    limb of the solar disk.

    "The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was recorded from the morning
    of the 13th and ended on the 15th. In the next two days, the CME
    impact triggered a geomagnetic storm at G1 and G2 levels. In doing
    so, the attenuation in the polar cap - PCA - increased
    significantly.

    "Geomagnetic observatories recorded a high K index value of 6 on 15
    March at 2322 UTC. Note: this CME was ejected into space by the
    eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun almost 4 days earlier.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions were above average until 14 March
    and deteriorated significantly on 15 March. However, due to
    sufficiently high solar activity there was an improvement from 16
    March onwards."

    KM0T wrote:

    "Finally got VP8 on 6M - Wednesday March 15.

    "Been getting at least one and maybe two decodes from VP8NO and
    VP8LP almost every day over the last week, but not enough to work,
    seems always east coast, SE and Texas, some 6 land.

    "Today, waiting in the wings, decoded a VP8 around 1700 UTC, kept
    the beam that way and VP8LP came in at 1856 with -04 sigs.  I got a
    -20 report. I missed his initial CQ at 1854 which was +18!  He
    dropped down to -15 right after I worked him and then was gone. He
    was in from 1854 to 1858, 4-minute window. Then one more single
    decode him calling CQ at 1900 at -10, then gone.

    "Anyway, it was short lived, then a few minutes later at 1909 UTC
    VP8NO came in with +4 to -10 sigs till about 1918 UTC. I apparently
    got his attention as Greg, W0LGQ in Council Bluffs EN21, south of me
    told me on the phone that VP8NO was calling me back with a -12
    report for a number of sequences, but I was getting no decodes by
    then from him.

    "Greg indicated as we compared notes, that WSJT FT8 signal reports
    from VP8NO were consistently +10 dB better at EN21 then EN13 - 167
    miles as the crow flies.  We both run 6 over 6 so it's somewhat a
    good comparison.

    "Definitely short lived F2.  From here, seems that TEP always ends
    up dropping off mid country LU or CE, CX.  Never that far south to
    VP8.

    "Well, now that I look at the DX Maps snapshot, it appears there may
    have been an Es to TEP link on my side."

    Tony, WA4JQS sent a message about working some New Zealand stations on 29.6 MHz FM.

    "Rich, N8UX and I have talked about this ever since FT8 came out. We
    are seeing a lot of skewed path QSOs over the past few years. Today
    the SFI was 157. I am thinking we have some prop paths or types we
    did not know about until FT8. Of course, I could be wrong, but I
    have seen some really strange paths the past few years with FT8. I
    listened for 10 mins after I signed with the ZL2, and I was the only
    one to hear and work him other than the VK3 and they were having
    trouble getting the calls correct. While I had a pipeline, into the
    South Island but then I find it strange that I heard no other VK or
    ZL."

    WB6MPH sent this very interesting link, providing an animated visual
    rendering of predicted propagation:

    https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[2]

    He also is interested in possible effects of planetary positions on
    the Sun. Years ago I heard about J.H. Nelson of RCA and his work on
    this subject, but thought that this article showed his conclusions
    were affected by statistical artifacts, as outlined here:

    https://bit.ly/42mbEtg[3]

    Greg Glenn sent this:

    "Check out Frank Stefani's work.  He is one of many who I read up
    on. Stefani was a peer reviewer on my paper.

    "https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=63352&pNid=0&pLang=en[4]

    "Recent Stefani technical paper:

    "https://bit.ly/3ZUXm18[5]

    "Basically, Stefani suggests that even a very small gravitational
    force exerted by the planets on the Sun can have an effect through
    billions of years of resonance.

    "I personally think that both gravitational, as well as
    electromagnetic forces are at play.  It's a solar 'system' and there
    are multiple forces transferred between the orbiting planets and the
    Sun.

    "I write, along with Astronomer Gerald Pease, about the
    gravitational force exerted by transfer of angular momentum here:

    "https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553[6]

    "I then wrote about the possible Electromagnetic Connections here:

    "https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.10574[7]

    "A prediction I made that came about:

    "https://bit.ly/42kvVzp[8]

    "Thanks, Greg!"

    Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/gjrvLY-RU5Q
    [9]
    Solar explosions:

    https://bit.ly/3liDO85[10]

    From news in India:

    https://bit.ly/3JMJHnu[11]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to
    tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2023 were 155, 135, 126,
    135, 87, 97, and 96, with a mean of 118.7. 10.7 cm flux was 178.8,
    171.2, 157.4, 150, 143.3, 138.5, and 135.7, with a mean of 153.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 7, 8, 3, 17, and 29, with
    a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 14, 10, 5, 6, 2, 12, and
    19, with a mean of 9.9.

     


    [1] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
    [2] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
    [3] https://bit.ly/42mbEtg
    [4] https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=63352&pNid=0&pLang=en
    [5] https://bit.ly/3ZUXm18
    [6] https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553
    [7] https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.10574
    [8] https://bit.ly/42kvVzp
    [9] https://youtu.be/gjrvLY-RU5Q
    [10] https://bit.ly/3liDO85
    [11] https://bit.ly/3JMJHnu
    [12] k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [17] http://k9la.us/
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 24 16:36:40 2023
    03/24/2023

    Sunspot numbers were lower again this week, with the average
    declining from 143.6 two weeks ago to 118.7 last week and now 68
    this week. Average daily solar flux sank 8 points from 153.6 last
    week to 145.6.

    Six new sunspot groups emerged over the week, one on March 17,
    another March 18, three more on March 19, one more on March 21 and
    another on March 22.

    Predicted solar flux is 150, 145 and 145 on March 24-26, 150 on
    March 27-28, 145 and 150 on March 29-30, 138 on March 31 through
    April 1, then 136, 136 and 134 on April 2-4, 132 on April 5-7, 130
    on April 8-9, then 132, 135, 138, and 140 on April 10-13, 142 on
    April 14-15, 143 on April 16, 140 on April 17-18, 142 on April
    19-21, and 144 on April 22, 146 on April 23-24, 142 and 140 on April
    25-26, 138 on April 27-28, and 136 on April 29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 35, 30, 20, 15 and 10 on March 24-28,
    8 on March 29-30, then 18, 12, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31 through
    April 5, 5 on April 6-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April 10-13, 8 on
    April 14-15, then 12, 10, 5 and 5 on April 16-19, then geomagnetic
    unrest returns with 10, 36, 20, 10, 8 and 5 April 20-25, then 20,
    18, 12, 12 and 10 on April 26-30.

    On Thursday, Spaceweather.com reported, "The forecast did not call
    for this. During the early hours of March 23rd, a crack opened in
    Earth's magnetic field, and stayed open for more than 8 hours. Solar
    wind poured through the gap to fuel a strong G3-class geomagnetic
    storm."

    I watch this site frequently looking for disturbances when
    propagation seems odd:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1]

    On Thursday it showed estimated planetary K index at 7, then
    dipping, and at 2100 UTC above 7. I noticed some very odd
    propagation. At 1900 UTC I called CQ on 10 meter FT8, and
    pskreporter.info showed I was only being heard in a small area in
    east Texas. Stations were concentrated between 1739 and 1892 miles
    in an area between Houston, San Antonio, Killeen and Nacogdoches.
    That was it! Heard nowhere else. I was running low power, using a
    simple end-fed one wavelength wire that is mostly indoors.

    Over the next half hour coverage extended east to Louisiana, then
    Alabama, then Georgia and South Caroline.

    At 1950 UTC I went to 15 meters, and noticed a similar oddity, this
    time with stations in an arc between 1510-2680 miles, bordered by
    N1AC in Florida, NT5EE in Texas, KI5WKB in Oklahoma and a station in
    North Carolina.

    A check again at 0050 UTC last night on 15 meter FT8 and
    pskreporter.info[2] showed for over and hour the only stations I was
    receiving were two Cubans, and the only stations hearing me were in
    an arc from Arizona to Alabama.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 23, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "If we were to assess solar activity in the last seven days by the
    number and size of sunspots, or by the number of energetic flares,
    it would not seem significant. Yet it was, but we only know that
    because of satellite observations. For example, NASA's SDO
    observatory recorded a dark plasma eruption at 0630 UTC on 17 March.

    "The speed of the solar wind began to increase on 21 March. Far more
    noticeable was a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere of
    the Sun near the central meridian. The assumption of a strong solar
    plasma flow from its borders pointed to a probable disturbance on
    March 24.

    "But the flow was faster. We saw a really strong geomagnetic storm a
    day earlier, on March 23. During the morning hours, the
    concentration of free particles around the Earth began to rise
    rapidly, as a reliable precursor of the coming storm. The
    geomagnetic disturbance reached a planetary K index of 7 in the
    afternoon, so its intensity was rated G3.

    "Earth's ionosphere responded to the storm with an increase in MUF
    during 23 March. Since the disturbance should continue, albeit with
    less intensity, we expect initially below-average shortwave
    propagation conditions and then a slow return to average."

    Another great video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/bG0zCbXukm4[3]

    This weekend is the CQ World-Wide SSB WPX Contest. See
    https://cqwpx.com[4] for info and rules. This is a big, fun contest in
    which callsign prefixes are the multiplier.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22, 2023 were 84, 58, 35, 73,
    75, 70, and 81, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 135.4, 134.2,
    140.3, 142.7, 156.1, 151.6, and 158.9, with a mean of 145.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 8, 10, 13, 8, and 17, with
    a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 6, 8, 10, 8, and
    14, with a mean of 8.4.

     


    [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [2] http://pskreporter.info
    [3] https://youtu.be/bG0zCbXukm4
    [4] https://cqwpx.com
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Mar 31 14:11:44 2023
    03/31/2023

    Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 68 to 112.6, and average daily solar flux changed from
    145.6 to 156.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on March 24, two more on March 26 and
    27, and three on March 29.

    Due to solar wind and a geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of
    the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from
    10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to
    13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower
    latitudes in North America.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on March 31, 130 on April 1-6, 132 on
    April 7-8, then 130, 132, 135 and 135 on April 9-12, then 140, 145
    and 148 on April 13-15, then 150, 150, 155, 155 and 158 on April
    16-20, 160 on April 21-23, then 155, 145 and 145 on April 24-26, and
    135 on April 27 through May 1, then 132 on May 2-5, then 130, 132,
    135 and 135 on May 6-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31
    through April 4, then 5 on April 5-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April
    10-13, 8 on April 14-15, then 12, 20, 15 and 5 on April 16-19, then
    20, 15 and 10 on April 20-22, 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25-26,
    then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 27-30, and 5 on May 1-6, then 15, 12
    and 8 on May 7-9.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 30, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The strong geomagnetic storm on 23-24 March was not expected.
    Moreover, it was classified as a G4, making it the most intense in
    almost 6 years. The source of the solar wind was not identified with
    certainty, but a large coronal hole in the south, near the central
    meridian, could not be missed.

    "As a consequence of the disturbance, the ionosphere first
    experienced a rise in the critical frequencies of the F2 layer on 23
    March, followed by a significant drop on 24-25 March. Their normal
    values started to be registered again only after 26 March.

    "Energetic flares are a reliable indicator of the increase in solar
    activity. On March 29, the seventh X-class flare of the year was
    registered. Yet a total of seven were registered in 2022 and only
    two in 2021.

    "Most of the sunspots are now on the western half of the solar disk.
    As they gradually set, total solar activity will first decrease over
    the next week before rising again."

    Here are articles about solar activity as an existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3M28RQv[1]

    https://bit.ly/42W7xo4[2]

    https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc[3]

    Nice sunspot video, before the aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3K2alHX[4]

    AA7FV wrote on March 25:

    "There was a 6-meter opening from Arizona to VK on March 24.  I
    received VK7HH in Tasmania at 2028 UTC on WSPR; he was using just
    0.2 watts (200 mW)."

    VK7HH responded:

    "Yes, that WSPR spot was from my remote station running 200 mW from
    a Zacktek WSPR TX into a 1/2 wave vertical antenna. HASL 931m."

    AA7FV wrote:

    "For reference, my 50 MHz antenna is a Cushcraft 1/2-wave vertical,
    the Ringo AR6, with its base at about 10 feet above ground. The
    location here is 870m asl but I'm in the valley, just outside
    Tucson. The receiver is an ancient Icom PCR1000, but with a preamp.
    I monitor 6m 24/7, but rarely hear any signals at all, and when I do
    hear something it's usually from someone else in Arizona."

    On March 25, Jon, N0JK wrote:

    "Worked VP8NO in GD18 today on 6 Meter FT8 at 1905 UTC.  de N0JK
    EM28 in Kansas."

    Jon was using a portable 2 element Yagi and running 50 watts.

    Here is an article about a "Hole" in the Sun:

    https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for March 23 through 29, 2023 were 73, 108, 105,
    125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7 cm flux was 151,
    157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with
    a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and
    4, with a mean of 13.7.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3M28RQv
    [2] https://bit.ly/42W7xo4
    [3] https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc
    [4] https://bit.ly/3K2alHX
    [5] https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 7 23:38:34 2023
    04/07/2023

     Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were way down this week. Sunspot numbers were down by half, from 112.6 last week to 53.4.  Average daily solar flux declined from 156.1 to 132.5. 

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower too.  Average daily planetary A index from 23.3 last week to 15 in this bulletin, and average daily middle latitude A index from 13.7 to 11.7.

    The April 1 middle latitude A index of 11 is my guess.  The middle latitude A index for April 1 was not available.

    Predicted solar flux is 140 on April 7 and 8, 135 on April 9 to 11, 140, 145 and 130 on on April 12 to 14, 130 on April 14, 135 on April 15 to 17, 140 on April 18 to 20, 135 on April 21 to 23, then 130, 125 and 120 on April 24 to 26, 115 on April 27 to 29, 125 on April 30, 120 on May 1 and 2, 115 on May 3 and 4, then 110 on May 5 to 7, and 115, 120, 125 and 130 on May 8 to 11, then 135 on May 12 to 14, and 140 on May 15 to 17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 7 to 10, then 8, 8 and 5 on April 11 to 13, 8 on April 14 and 15, then 12, 10 and 15 on April 16 to 18, then 5, 20, 15 and 10 on April 19 to 22, 5 on April 23 to 25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 and 27, 15 on April 28 and 29, 8 on April 30, 10 on May 1 and 2, 8 on May 3, then 5 on May 4 to 6, then 12, 10, 8 and 5 on May 7 to 10, 8 on May 11 and 12, then 10, 12, 15, 5 and 20 on May 13 to 17.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- April 6, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On March 29, another solar flare of category X1.2 was observed.  It came from the AR3256 sunspot group near the southwestern limb of the Sun.

    This year, in just three months, we've already seen seven X-class flares, the same as all of last year.  There are still about two years to go before the cycle peak.

    On the morning of March 31, a solar wind stream hit Earth, triggering a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm.  A relatively quiet weekend followed.

    Then new sunspot group AR3270 emerged in the southern part of the solar disk.  It grew rapidly, its two dark cores, larger than Earth, indicating an unstable magnetic field.  If they merge an eruption would likely follow.  It would probably be a geoeffective eruption because the sunspot was directly opposite the Earth.

    After the AR3270 sunspot group dips behind the southwestern limb of the solar disk this weekend, there should be a temporary drop in overall solar activity, accompanied by a string of geomagnetically quieter days.

    As the irregular occurrence of higher geomagnetic activity results in irregular changes in shortwave propagation conditions, the subsequent evolution should be more regular and predictable."

    This video from Tamitha Skov came out right after last week's bulletin:

    https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88[1]

    More sun fun:  

    https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw[2]  

    https://bit.ly/41aolq2[3]  

    Don't worry:  

    https://bit.ly/3zCtg74[4]

    On April 5 from 1723 to 1746 UTC, Tom, WA1LBK in Fall River, Massachusetts copied HC1MD/2 in Ecuador on 6 meter FT8.  Check HC1MD on QRZ.com for some beautiful photos by Rick, NE8Z.

    https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa[5]  

    This weekend is the CW portion of the Japan International DX Contest.

    See http://jidx.org/[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]  

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2023 were 99, 61, 23, 54, 56, 44, and 37, with a mean of 53.4.  10.7 cm flux was 140.3, 129.3, 125.3, 126.9, 133.6, 135.7, and 136.6, with a mean of 132.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 13, 15, 15, 13, and 11, with a mean of 15.  Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 11, 13, 11, 10, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.


    [1] https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88
    [2] https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw
    [3] https://bit.ly/41aolq2
    [4] https://bit.ly/3zCtg74
    [5] https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa
    [6] http://jidx.org/
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 14 16:49:48 2023
    04/14/2023

    Solar activity was up for this reporting week, April 6-12.

    Seven new sunspot groups appeared, one on April 6, another on April
    9, two more on April 10, another on April 11, and two more on April
    12. Then on Thursday, April 13, three new sunspot groups emerged.
    The sunspot number rose to 154, the highest value in the past month.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 53.4 to 70.6, and average
    daily solar flux increased from 132.5 to 141.

    On Thursday, the noon solar flux reading was 159.5 and was well
    above the average for the previous seven days, perhaps indicating an
    upward trend.

    Geomagnetic conditions were calm, with average daily planetary A
    index dropping from 15 to 7.6, and the middle latitude average from
    11.7 to 6.4.
     
    Predicted solar flux was 155 and 160 on April 13-14, and 165 on
    April 15-16.

    The Thursday prediction was well above that.

    Predicted solar flux is 168 on April 14-16, 165 and 160 on April
    17-18, 155 on April 19-22, 158 on April 23, 155 on April 24-25, then
    152, 148, 145 and 142 on April 26-29, 140 on April 30 and May 1, 142
    and 140 on May 2-3, 135 on May 4-5, then 130, 140, 145, 150, 152,
    155 and 158 on May 6-12, then 160 on May 13-15, and 150 and 152 on
    May 16-17, 155 on May 18-19, then 158, 155 and 155 on May 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 10 and 8 on April 14-17, 5 on
    April 18-20, then 8 and 10 on April 21-22, 5 on April 23-25, then 15
    and 18 on April 26-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2,
    8 on May 3-4, 5 on May 5-6, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 7-9, and 5 on
    May 10-13, then 10, 15 and 5 on May 14-16, 20, 15 and 10 on May
    17-19, and 5 on May 20-23.

    Spaceweather.com[1] released this news on Wednesday:

    "Evidence is mounting that Solar Cycle 25 might peak much earlier
    than expected. New research by a leading group of solar physicists
    predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024 with a
    peak that could be twice as strong as the previous solar cycle."

    Look in the Spaceweather archive for April 12-13 to read more.  It
    is all explained in this scientific paper:

    https://bit.ly/41gZnW4[2]

    I noticed some very odd 10 meter propagation at 2000 UTC on April
    11. Running FT8 and a one wavelength end fed wire at my home in
    Seattle, the only stations that heard me according to
    pskreporter.info were one in New Zealand, another in Hawaii, and in
    North America, only 5 stations (NK5B, AD4ES, K4RMM, KB4FB and AA4CB)
    in Florida, all within a 200 mile strip from 2,512 to 2,712 miles
    from me. Checking again at 2015 UTC, it was still the same. It
    looked quite dramatic on the pskreporter.info map.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 13, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Relatively frequent C-class solar flares, sporadic M-class flares
    in one or two sunspot groups, and the appearance of two or three
    relatively small coronal holes - that's how the Sun looked between
    April 6 and 13.

    "The solar wind speed dropped to 340 km/s by April 9, rose
    significantly to 550 km/s on April 10, and then slowly dropped
    again. The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled on April 10, then
    mostly calm on the other days.

    "MUF values were slightly higher on 10 April. This was followed by
    11 April with irregular daily MUF and irregular occurrences of
    attenuation. Since 12 April onward there was a transition to a
    regular daily course of ionospheric parameters.

    "Now we can expect higher solar activity in the southern hemisphere.
    The rise should continue in the coming days at first. A slight
    decrease will follow after the weekend.

    "A slight increase in geomagnetic activity with consequent
    fluctuations in shortwave propagation conditions can be expected
    rather since the middle of next week."

    Here is a video about the Termination Event:

    https://youtu.be/wcJdNBow_5s[3]

    A story on NASA using AI to predict geomagnetic storms:

    https://bit.ly/3mws16y[4]

    Here is a story about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3UCz8ar[5]

    Mike Mason, WB4MM in Daytona Beach, Florida wrote:

    "On April 9 2023 FT8 mode 12 meters beginning at 2254 UTC and ending
    at 2328 UTC I worked 12 JA stations plus 2 South Korean stations in
    a row. I was calling CQ AS WB4MM EL99.

    "My station has 100 watts to an attic 15M dipole. I believe the SFI
    at the time was 135. Not sure of the type of prop. This occurred
    within an hour of sunset at my QTH."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for April 6 through 12, 2023 were 33, 38, 49, 52,
    92, 103, and 127, with a mean of 70.6. 10.7 cm flux was 137.1,
    136.3, 135.9, 140.3, 139.8, 143.4, and 154, with a mean of 141.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 6, 6, 14, 6, and 4, with a
    mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 5, 11, 6, and 4,
    with a mean of 6.4.
     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/41gZnW4
    [3] https://youtu.be/wcJdNBow_5s
    [4] https://bit.ly/3mws16y
    [5] https://bit.ly/3UCz8ar
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 21 18:04:00 2023
    04/21/2023

    Again this week sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher than the
    week before.

    Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled, from 70.6 to 146.9,
    and average daily solar flux increased from 141 to 164.5. Both
    figures represent a substantial increase in solar activity.

    Planetary A index averages went from 7.6 to 8.1, while middle
    latitude A index advanced from 6.4 to 7.3.

    Three new sunspot groups emerged on April 13, one more on April 16,
    and another on April 17.

    Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 145, 140 and 135 on
    April 21-23, 130 on April 24-25, 125 on April 26-27, 160 on April
    28-29, 165 on April 30, 172 on May 1-3, 170 on May 4, 172 on May
    5-7, 178 on May 8, 182 on May 9-12, then 175, 178 and 170 on May
    13-15, 168 on May 16-17, 175 on May 18, then 172 on May 19-21, then
    168 and 162 on May 22-23, 160 on May 24-26, 165 on May 27, and 172
    on May 28-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 16, 12 and 8 on April 21-24, 5 on
    April 25-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2, 8 on May
    3-4, 5 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 5 on May 8-10, then 8 on May 11-12,
    5 on May 13-18, then 10, 8, 5 and 5 on May 19-22, 15 and 18 on May
    23-24, 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "Of the fifteen sunspot groups observed over the past week, AR3272
    and AR3282 were the source of most of the flares. Both had a
    beta-gamma magnitude configuration. 61 C-class flares and 4 M-class
    flares were observed.

    "The partial halo CMEs on 15 and 16 April were the source of
    particles that reached Earth on 18 April, when the solar wind speed
    increased abruptly at 1308 UTC and a geomagnetic disturbance
    developed.

    "A positive phase of the ionospheric disturbance was recorded on the
    afternoon of 18 April, followed by a negative phase on 19 April.
    This was followed on 20 April with a significant increase in f0F2
    and improved shortwave propagation conditions before noon UTC.

    "The outlook looks promising for the first half of May, when solar
    activity should increase further."

    Dan Handa, W7WA commented on the news last week about the current
    solar cycle reaching a peak earlier than predicted, perhaps by the
    end of this year.

    I told him I hoped it would not peak early, because I wanted to see
    several more years of increasing activity.

    Dan sent a very detailed graph of Solar Cycle 19 from 1954 to 1966,
    and wrote: "I have read, and more than once, a slow rise means a low
    sunspot max. The previous Solar Cycle 24 took five years to reach a
    relatively low maximum. A rapid increase can mean a high sunspot
    maximum. The granddaddy of our lifetime, Solar Cycle 19 peaked in
    three years!"

    I did not know this.

    In a subsequent message, Dan further commented:

    "There was a lot of short term variation in the Solar Cycle 19
    sunspot number, just like we're seeing now. From the graph the
    timing of the Solar Cycle 19 peak can be defined three different
    ways: the daily peak, the smoothed monthly peak or the smoothed
    yearly peak, take your pick."

    Another Solar Cycle 19? Many hams have dreamed of this for the past
    six decades.

    Dale, WB6MMQ reported that the solar images in the ARRL Letter with
    a preview of our Friday bulletin show a blank Sun. I wasn't sure
    what he was talking about, but now I realize this must be a stock
    image (not from me!) used in the Letter.

    I sent Dale links to some recent images from Spaceweather.com[1]:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif[2]

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif[3]

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif[4]

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif[5]

    I hope this clears up the confusion.

    An odd correlation between an ancient epidemic and solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf[6]

    A story about a possible early Solar peak:

    https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early[7]

    A story about possible M-class solar flares:

    https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for April 13 through 19, 2023 were 154, 153, 151,
    155, 162, 140, and 113, with a mean of 146.9. 10.7 cm flux was
    159.5, 171.3, 175.8, 177.8, 166.6, 153.2, and 147, with a mean of
    164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 9, 4, 6, 13, and 12,
    with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 8, 4, 6, 9,
    and 9, with a mean of 7.3.
     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif
    [3] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif
    [4] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif
    [5] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif
    [6] https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf
    [7] https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early
    [8] https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1
    [9] k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Apr 28 16:18:02 2023
    04/28/2023

    At 0134 UTC on April 27, The Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "An equatorial coronal hole is currently elevating solar wind
    speeds. Combined with the anticipated impact from a recent CME on
    April 27, geomagnetic activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels
    over April 27-28, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G2."

    Solar and geomagnetic indicators moved in opposite directions this
    week. Average daily sunspot numbers over April 20-26 made a dramatic
    drop from 146.9 to 91.4, and average daily solar flux from 164.5 to
    139.4.

    Average daily planetary A index more than tripled from 8.1 to 26.9,
    while average middle latitude A index more than doubled from 7.3 to
    15.6.

    Solar wind and explosions caused all this grief.

    Spaceweather.com[1] reported that on April 21, a large magnetic
    filament on the Sun exploded, hurling debris toward Earth.

    Later they reported that on April 23 at 1737 UTC a CME hit Earth,
    sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Aurora was visible as
    far south as southern New Mexico and Texas.

    The planetary K index went as high as 8 over April 23-24.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 135 on April 28-30, 140
    on May 1-2, 135 on May 3-4, 140 on May 5-6, then  145, 150, 155, 160
    and 165 on May 7-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165, 160, 155, 150, 145
    and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, 130 and 125 on May 22-23,
    120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May 26-28, 140 on May 29
    through June 2, then 145, 150, 155, 160, and 165 on June 3-7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 25, 16 and 12 on April 28-30, 8 on
    May 1-5, 12 and 10 on May 6-7, 8 on May 8-9, then 5, 5 and 12 on May
    10-12, 5 on May 13-15, 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-22, then 15 and
    18 on May 23-34, and 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29, 8
    on May 30-31, then 5, 5 and 12 on June 1-3, and 5 on June 4-6.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 27, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The most important event of the last seven days was the solar flare
    on 21 April with a maximum at 1812 UTC (1744 - 1857 UT). It was a
    long duration event (LDE), accompanied by the ejection of a cloud of
    coronal plasma into space, at a location on the Sun where there is a
    high probability of the cloud hitting the Earth. It is therefore not
    surprising that all forecast centres agreed in predicting the
    impending disturbance.

    "The speed of the solar wind jumped up on 23 April at 1703 UTC,
    after which a geomagnetic disturbance began to develop. It was much
    stronger than expected (max K=8 and G4 instead of the expected K=6
    and G1-2). Auroras were observed with two maxima - in Europe on 23
    April mainly between 1900-2100 UTC and in North America on 24 April
    between 0300-0400 UTC.

    "Thereafter, propagation conditions deteriorated significantly,
    especially on 24-25 April, with one interesting variation of the
    evolution: the calming of the geomagnetic field on the morning of 25
    April UTC was followed by a further development of the disturbance
    with an albeit shorter but significant improvement. The return of
    the critical frequencies of the F2 layer and the improvement of
    shortwave propagation conditions toward the mean continued only
    slowly in the following days, as intervals of increased geomagnetic
    activity occurred daily. The lowest f0F2 were observed on the night
    of 23-24 April. The following night was slightly better."

    Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

    "I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
    The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
    in a 2 hour period.

    "On Monday, the 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
    had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
    that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
    then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
    influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
    much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
    FANTASTIC, and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
    understand.

    "Here's my question.  Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
    determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
    20m and 40m)?

    "You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
    egg.'"

    I replied:

    "I recommend pskreporter.info[2], and look on the map screen for FT8
    signals from your grid square and where they are heard. You don't
    have to use FT8 to use this.

    "You can also check for the 'country of callsign' option with your
    own or any callsign.  When I do this for 10 meters, this week it has
    been showing no propagation from my area, but lots of 10 meter
    propagation in the south and across the east coast.

    "I use FT8 a lot to study propagation."

    Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote:

    "Been doing a lot of FT8 these months. More DXpeditions are
    including its operation.  Just last week on April 16th at 1939 UTC
    worked VU7W and in WARD April 18th T30UN at 0721 on 40m and 0735 on 30m, the two ATNOs."

    (I think WARD refers to World Amateur Radio Day, and of course ATNO
    refers to All Time New One, something I did not know until a few
    years ago. -K7RA)

    "But on the 20th, at 0800 UTC, saw stations on 10 meters, normally
    you do not hear them on any mode at that time. Then I began to call
    them and a few from Europe contacted me. Then at about 0845 UTC,
    'poof' they disappeared.

    "These are the things that make me say that it is because of the
    'crazy prop' (la propa loca)."

    Tomas Hood, NW7US has a monthly propagation column in CQ Magazine,
    which is a great resource. In the March issue he writes about the
    promising progress of Solar Cycle 25.

    Another great resource is Chapter 19, the "Propagation of Radio
    Signals" in the 2023 100th edition of the ARRL Handbook. It contains
    the most comprehensive treatment of radio propagation I have ever
    seen and goes on for 38 pages.

    Aurora observed in China:

    https://bit.ly/41KyY3w[3]

    Aurora in Iowa:

    https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S[4]

    An article explaining aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2[5]

    A Science & Tech article about Sun science:

    https://bit.ly/429Sqq9

    From 2017, a NASA sunspot video:

    https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to
    tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

    Sunspot numbers for April 20 through 26, 2023 were 97, 114, 87, 86,
    88, 87, and 81, with a mean of 91.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147, 151.2,
    141.2, 135.2, 133.9, 130.7, and 136.5, with a mean of 139.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 7, 66, 76, 10, and 15, with
    a mean of 26.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 6, 32, 39, 7, and
    12, with a mean of 15.6.
     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] http://pskreporter.info
    [3] https://bit.ly/41KyY3w
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S
    [5] https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2
    [6] https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 12 23:53:54 2023
    05/12/2023

    We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week, May 4-10.

    Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1  

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17.  

    Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May 15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20 on June 19-20.

    Stormy space weather:  

    https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge[1] .

    BBC on viewing aurora:  

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/[2]

    More:  

    https://bit.ly/44Rruxk[3]  

    Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9:  

    "Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas.  

    I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up portable.

    Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted:  

    00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue.  

    00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact.  

    22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU   

    Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es -- TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000 UTC." Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.  

    "The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.  

    This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs overlapping each other were difficult to separate.  

    Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm. Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310 UTC.  Shortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare.  

    The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25 MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over 1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them 'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere.  

    These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are expected to arrive.  

    Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged in the northeast.  

    Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the evolution with numerous disturbances will continue."  

    Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:  

    https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q[4]  

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.  

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9]  . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .  

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .  

    Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99, 103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162, 161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and 19, with a mean of 11.9.


    [1] https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge
    [2] https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/
    [3] https://bit.ly/44Rruxk
    [4] https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 19 19:08:07 2023
    05/19/2023

    This reporting week, May 11-17, average daily sunspot number was
    nearly the same as last week, 118.6 compared to 119.3, only
    marginally lower.

    But average daily solar flux dropped from 167.8 to 143.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, both planetary and middle
    latitude A index at 9.6. Last week the two numbers were 15.1 and
    11.9, respectively.

    What is the outlook for the next few weeks?

    10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to have a peak of 165 on June 8.

    The predicted numbers are 145 on May 19, 140 on May 20-21, 135 on
    May 22-24, 140 on May 25-26, 145 on May 27, 155 on May 28-30, 160 on
    May 31 and June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160,
    150, 145, and 150 on June 8-12, then 155 on June 13-17, 150 on June
    18, 145 on June 19-21, 140 and 145 on June 22-23, and 155 on June
    24-26 then 160 on June 27-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 15 and 5 on May 19-23, 12
    on May 24-25, 15 on May 26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May
    30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June
    6-8, then 5 on June 9-18, 12 and 20 on June 19-20, 15 on June 21-22,
    10 on June 23-24, 8 on June 25, and 5 on June 26-28.

    These numbers are updated daily here:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[1]

    Thanks to reader David Moore for this:

    "How 1,000 undergraduates helped solve an enduring mystery about the
    Sun:

    "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm[2]

    "For three years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of
    students spent an estimated 56,000 hours analyzing the behavior of
    hundreds of solar flares. Their results could help astrophysicists
    understand how the Sun's corona reaches temperatures of millions of
    degrees Fahrenheit."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - May 18, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On May 12, we expected a CME impact from the flare on the evening
    of May 9. It was indeed registered - at 0635 UTC the geomagnetic
    storm began. However, it was weaker than expected, of G1 class.

    "On 13 May at 1915 UTC, an unexpected CME impact followed for a
    change, which again triggered another G1 class geomagnetic storm.

    "On 16 May, we expected another smaller CME. The particle cloud has
    been slowly approaching Earth since the magnetic filament eruption
    in the southern hemisphere of the Sun on 12 May.

    "The next solar flare on May 16, with a maximum at 1643 UTC, was
    M9.6 class. It came from a sunspot group still hiding behind the
    southeastern limb of the Sun. In fact, it may have been an X flare,
    partially obscured by the solar horizon. Yet it caused the strong
    Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over North America. After the
    sunspot group came out on the solar disk, we could observe it as AR
    3310. It's about three times wider than Earth, and its magnetic
    configuration promises more flares.

    "Not only was solar flare activity quite high, but the Sun was
    hurling so many CMEs into space that hardly a day went by without
    one hitting Earth. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic storms
    was also higher, followed by frequent deterioration of shortwave
    propagation conditions. In summary, the 25th solar cycle continues
    to evolve nicely."

    Frank, VO1HP sent this from St. Johns, Newfoundland:

    "On May 12 1957-2113 UTC, there was a strong 6M Es opening into mid
    South America. Logged 20 stations using FT8. No CW or SSB heard.
    Stations worked at VO1HP remote station: LU3CQ, CE3SX, 2SV, LI7DUE,
    9AEA, 9DO, 1FAM, 8EX, CX3VB, PP5BK, LU2DPW, CX1VH, PU3AMB, CX6VM, LU3FAP, XQ3SK, XQ3MCC, CE3VRT, 3SOC, and LU5FF.

    "Antenna 4el Yagi at 35ft overlooking ocean. K3 + PR6, KPA500
    KAT500. Other VO1s seen: VO1CH, VO1SIX, and VO1AW."

    On April 24, Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

    "I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
    The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
    in a 2 hour period.

    "On Monday, April 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
    had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
    that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
    then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
    influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
    much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
    FANTASTIC and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
    understand.

    "Here's my question.  Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
    determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
    20m and 40m)?

    "You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
    egg.'"

    As I first reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, I told
    him that a very useful tool (to use) is to check real time
    geomagnetic indices with this:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[3]

    Nice quiet conditions show a planetary A index at 1 or 2, unsettled
    conditions at 3, then above 3 conditions are disturbed. The scale is logarithmic, so each point in either direction is important.

    Another approach is to use pskreporter at https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[4] which is handy if you live
    in a grid square that has many active hams, or a nearby grid that is
    more populated.

    You can check FT8 activity on any band. There is also a "Country of
    Callsign" selection so you can check activity across your nation of
    choice. Recently when I have raised nobody on 10 meter FT8 this
    option showed no activity here in the Pacific Northwest but plenty
    of 10 meter activity in the southeast United States.

    Here is a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA[5]

    NASA sunspot picture:

    https://bit.ly/458DrPw[6]

    A video of a recent eruption:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY[7]

    Here are articles about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/434c5bw[8]

    https://bit.ly/3pWId2e[9]

    https://bit.ly/45hXTxh[10]

    https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa[11]

    NASA warning of a Solar Storm threat:

    https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2[12]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[13]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[14] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[15] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[16] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2023 were 152, 134, 120, 109,
    103, 106, and 106, with a mean of 118.6. 10.7 cm flux was 163.4,
    149.1, 143.8, 139.7, 134.5, 134.3, and 137.9, with a mean of 143.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 19, 13, 8, 6, 8, and 4, with a
    mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 10, 15, 12, 9, 6, 10, and
    5, with a mean of 9.6.

     


    [1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
    [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm
    [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [4] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [5] https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA
    [6] https://bit.ly/458DrPw
    [7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY
    [8] https://bit.ly/434c5bw
    [9] https://bit.ly/3pWId2e
    [10] https://bit.ly/45hXTxh
    [11] https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa
    [12] https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2
    [13] k7ra@arrl.net
    [14] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [15] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [16] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [18] http://k9la.us/
    [19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri May 26 22:50:42 2023
    05/26/2023

    Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week.  Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were more active.  Average daily planetary A index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index rose from 9.6 to 14.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then 150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4, then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and 11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June 21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26 and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165 and 160 on July 2 to 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30, 5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5 on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22, 5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2, and 5 through the first week of July.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - May 25, 2023

    We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun and around the Earth.  The large, seen even without binoculars (e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an X-ray event maximum of M9.6.

    Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the other flares.  The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events (SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).

    Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands by deep and irregular fadeouts.

    SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades, Seven Sisters star cluster.  Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time.  No one had ever seen anything like it before.

    Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots, AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes on.  So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening shortwave propagation conditions continue.

    F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"

    K7EG wrote:

    "I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity impacting trends in radio disturbances.  Tell me I am wrong and it's just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and worsening."

    I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more flares, solar wind, and disturbances.  I think the disturbances are normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.

    When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to see what is happening in real time:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1]

    Beautiful aurora:  https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6[2]

    Sunspot images:  https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9[3]

    https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/[4]

    https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm[5]

    Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting the ionosphere.  https://bit.ly/428OAwM[6]

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest.

    https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].   When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]  .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140, 97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4.  10.7 cm flux was 150.6, 164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12, with a mean of 17.1.  Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17, 11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.


    [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [2] https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6
    [3] https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9
    [4] https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/
    [5] https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm
    [6] https://bit.ly/428OAwM
    [7] https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 2 18:14:10 2023
    06/02/2023

    Average daily solar flux values dropped over the past week, but
    sunspot numbers were nearly the same, comparing May 25 to 31 to the
    previous week.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 161.2 to 155.3. Geomagnetic
    indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index
    declining from 17.1 to 7.3, and middle latitude numbers from 14.4 to
    7.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on June 2, 155 on June 3-4, 150 on June
    5-8, 130 on June 9-11, then 135, 140, 143, 145, and 150 on June
    12-16, 155 on June 17-20, 150 on June 21-25, then 145, 140 and 135
    on June 26-28 and 130 on June 29 to July 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-5, 5 on
    June 6-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-24, 12
    and 10 on June 25-26, then 5 on June 27-28, then 15, 12, 15, 10 and
    8 on June 29 through July 3, then 5 on July 4 through the middle of
    the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 1, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "The Sun still surprises us, it has been in the habit for billions
    of years, but we only observe it for a few hundred years. So, we
    have a right to be surprised by what it is doing and what we can
    observe with instruments on satellites and powerful solar telescopes
    on Earth, including the largest four-metre one on the island of Maui
    in Hawaii, which can see the very fine structures of sunspot nuclei.

    "What's more, we're seeing spots on the far side of the Sun that are
    so big, they affect the vibration of the whole Sun. But we can only
    see their structure and predict possible flares after they appear on
    the eastern limb of the solar disk, which was not at all the case
    with the current most active AR3315, which did not appear there. It
    emerged later, thereafter began to grow rapidly.
     
    "Conversely, the source of the next big flare was hidden behind the southeastern limb, and we only saw the prominence above it.

    "Meanwhile, the larger groups of sunspots have mostly moved to the
    western half of the solar disk. A large coronal hole in the southern
    hemisphere now crosses the central meridian. This increases the
    likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances starting on June 2."

    Mike, AK7ML wrote:

    "I recall in a movie about Pearl Harbor that they could not reach
    Hawaii from stateside on HF and then they sent the message by cable
    telegraph in routine status, so Pearl was not informed of the attack
    in time.

    "For years I have been able to work Australia in the morning and now
    it is Indonesia that is workable instead!"

    A story about a big sunspot:

    https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth[1]

    I've added information from this resource to the text appearing at
    the bottom of every propagation forecast bulletin (this resource
    comes from September 2002 QST):

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[2]

    I was sad to learn that old friend Chip Margelli, K7JA became a
    Silent Key on May 25. Chip was from the Seattle area, and first came
    to my attention when he became proficient in the Japanese language
    during high school, then specialized in running JA stations at the
    old Rush Drake, W7RM contest station on Foulweather Bluff in Puget
    Sound.  At one time he may have been the most famous American ham in
    Japan, or so I heard at the time.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

    Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2023 were 121, 127, 125, 119,
    153, 144, and 147, with a mean of 133.7. 10.7 cm flux was 152.1,
    149, 156.9, 151.3, 154.4, 162, and 161.4, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 11, 4, 5, and 10, with
    a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 11, 5, 6, and
    11, with a mean of 7.9.

     


    [1] https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth
    [2] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [3] k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 9 18:29:02 2023
    06/09/2023

    Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
    number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux
    from 155.3 to 166.8.

    Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average
    middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.

    Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170
    on June 23-25 and July 20-21.

    The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160
    and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June
    21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160
    on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then
    140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on
    June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,
    then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,
    and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July
    11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.

    In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation
    observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also
    into Mexico at a similar distance.

    Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in
    North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and
    Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly
    elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.
    This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has
    resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest
    usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,
    however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which
    manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of
    the longer shortwave bands.

    "Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach
    Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind
    speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's
    magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.

    "The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,
    whose season is approaching its peak.

    "Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared
    quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the
    ionograms.

    "As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as
    well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere
    of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the
    improvement when Summer ends there -  which fortunately will be much
    earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."

    While searching for something else, I ran across this article from
    the RSGB:

    http://bit.ly/45TjWuA[1]

    Mike, W9NY wrote:

    "Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first
    licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,
    and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.

    "I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford
    who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering
    what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal
    propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to
    atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"

    I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of
    sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.

    It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest
    propagation bulletin.

    The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for
    analysis and custom graphing.

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[2]

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[8]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins
    [11]
    Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,
    151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,
    162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,
    with a mean of 8.6.

     


    [1] http://bit.ly/45TjWuA
    [2] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
    [3] https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [8] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10]
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 16 15:00:01 2023
    06/16/2023

    At 2256 UTC on June 16 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre
    issued a geomagnetic warning: "The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jun
    has increased as the Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream after
    15/0545UT. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 16-Jun
    with isolated periods of G1-Minor level activity."

    Earlier in the day I checked the NOAA planetary K index page, and it
    showed a jump from K index of about 1.8 at 1200 UTC to about 4.1 at
    1500 and again at 1800 UTC, then about 4.5 at 2100 UTC and 5.5 at
    0000 UTC on June 16. At 0300 UTC it was down a bit to 5.

    See, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1] .

    Solar activity declined this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers dropping from 139 to 122, while average daily solar flux
    decreased from 166.8 to 154.8. This compares the current reporting
    week of June 8-14 against the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased from 7.3 to 5.7, and
    average daily middle latitude A index from 8.6 to 6.7.

    On June 14 Spaceweather.com[2] reported two new sunspot groups emerging across the Sun's southeastern horizon.

    Forecasters Cundiff and Trost of the U.S. Air Force 557th Weather
    Wing predict solar flux at 155 on June 16-17, 160 on June 18-19,
    then 155, 160 and 165 on June 20-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168,
    165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160 on June 29 through July 4, 165 on
    July 5, 170 on July 6-8, then 155, 157, 153 and 160 on July 9-12,
    150 on July 13-14, 155 on July 15-17, then 160 and 165 on July
    18-19, and 170 on July 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June
    19-20, 8 on June 21-22, 5 on June 23-26, 12 on June 27-28, 5 on June
    29-30, then 12 and 8 on July 1-2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8-10,
    then 5, 5, and 12 on July 11-13, and 10 on July 14-15, and 5 on July
    16-23.

    These predictions look great for ARRL Field Day, which is June
    24-25. Why? Solar flux peaks at 170 on June 23-25, and the predicted
    planetary A index is a nice quiet 5 on June 22-26. Next week we will
    present an updated forecast just prior to Field Day weekend.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 16 - June 22, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The first half of June was quieter than May, both on the Sun and in
    the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.

    "However, helioseismic maps of the far side of the Sun showed a
    number of large active regions, probably sunspots. We therefore
    expected an increase in activity. But that's not likely to happen
    until a week from now.

    "Even so, there were some rather unexpected eruptions of moderate
    magnitude during the local midday, which triggered a SWF (Shortwave
    Fading) that could have broken the QSO in the longer half of the
    shortwave band.

    "Meanwhile, we observed a coronal hole in the solar equator region
    that crossed the central meridian on June 12.

    "Associated with it is the co-rotating interaction region (CIR),
    which are the transition zones between the slow and fast solar wind
    streams. Since the accumulation of solar plasma in the solar wind
    results in structures that are similar to the arrival of a CME, we
    expected a geomagnetic storm on the evening of 15 June UTC. The
    estimate was quite accurate - the disturbance began at 1500 UTC.

    "We can expect the geomagnetic field to be active for a few more
    days, including smaller storms."

    K6LMN wrote:

    "It was great on 6m last weekend. I was only on SSB on 6m, but I
    understand it was open all over on FT8. I believe the openings were
    caused by summer E-skip, not F2. I worked many, many stations in
    your grid square. Roger K6LMN in DM04sb Los Angeles."

    He sent this to N0JK:

    "We on the West Coast were finally treated to some decent E-skip on
    6 meters SSB and CW (do not know about FT8). The June VHF Contest
    was just great Saturday and Sunday afternoons into early evening,
    Pacific Daylight time. Before this contest the band out here has
    been fairly quiet.

    "So briefly, I was K6LMN/Limited Rover in DM03  DM04 all around LA.
    I had a tight schedule with many social engagements plus two
    funerals to attend. I could not get too serious with heavy artillery
    or going to 5,000+ ft. mountaintops. For 6m I simply used my Larsen
    5 ft. magmount on the car roof. The rig was my old IC-706IIG with
    only 90 watts SSB. I was also on 2m, 1-1/4m, and 70 cm.

    "Most DX contacts were on both days up to Oregon, Washington, Idaho,
    Montana, BC, and Alberta. But the surprise was Sunday early evening.
    Best 2 way DX was N9XG in EN60 (Indiana) and K9CT in EN50 (Illinois)
    with 1 hour to go before contest close. They were like 5 by 5 on
    peaks on SSB. I am sure all this big DX was double hop summer
    E-skip.

    "A surprise was VA6AN way up in Canada popping in/out on SSB with
    peaks up to 5 by 5 Sunday eve about 6:30 pm local time. However, the
    QRM was horrible (my whip is omnidirectional) so he did not work me.

    "I worked K7YO up in CN85 (his alternate QTH) and he said he was
    getting into Florida on SSB or CW or FT8 on 6M. Maybe triple hop
    E-skip?

    "I am unhappy that us West Coasters are not getting any F2 so far on
    6m in Solar Cycle 25. I am 85 years old, licensed in 1955 and was
    lucky to enjoy the all-time best F2 openings on 10m and 6m (AM) back
    in the Golden Days in 1956-1958 in Solar Cycle 19. Incredible!"

    N0JK sent a note on June 12 that he worked IK5YJY on 6 meter FT8. He
    also wrote: "6M Es all weekend and 2M Es Sunday eve for the ARRL VHF
    contest. By the way, you had a station (W9NY) comment about poor
    conditions on 6M in last week's bulletin. Last weekend was awesome.
    I made 3 JA contacts with 10w and a 3 el yagi from KS.

    "Today A71VV (Qatar) was in to Northeast KS around 1400z."

    Check out the images on the A71VV page on QRZ.com.

    Scotty, W7PSK sent a note on June 12 listing countries worked on 6
    meter FT8: Balearic Islands, France, Spain, England and Canada.

    An image of the International Space Station over a sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3NgsByW[3]

    A video too:

    https://bit.ly/43Em3B1[4]

    A study of the Sun's coldest region:

    https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu[5]

    More sunspots.

    https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6[6]

    Another breathless warning from South Asia about flares:

    https://bit.ly/42Rt2FG

    This weekend is the 64th annual CW weekend of the All Asian DX
    Contest. See the JARL web site for rules:

    https://bit.ly/43GPrXq[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14, 2023 were 149, 152, 116, 116,
    116, 98, and 107, with a mean of 122. 10.7 cm flux was 168.5, 164.3,
    161.2, 153.8, 146.1, 146.3, and 143.5, with a mean of 154.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 6, 6, and 5, with a
    mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, and 5,
    with a mean of 6.7.

     


    [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    [2] http://Spaceweather.com
    [3] https://bit.ly/3NgsByW
    [4] https://bit.ly/43Em3B1
    [5] https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu
    [6] https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6
    [7] https://bit.ly/43GPrXq
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 23 16:31:17 2023
    06/23/2023

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. There were two new
    sunspot groups on June 15, another on June 17 and one more on June
    18, three more on June 19, two more on June 20 and another on June
    21.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 122 to 143, and average
    daily solar flux rose from 154.8 to 165.4.

    Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.7 to 15.4, while the
    middle latitude numbers increased from 6.7 to 13.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 180 on June 23-24, 185 on June 25-27, 180 on
    June 28, 175 on June 29 through July 1, 180 on July 2-3, 175 on July
    4-5, 170 on July 6-10, then 165 on July 11, 160 on July 12-13, 165
    on July 14-15, 160 and 155 on July 16-17, 160 on July 18-19, 165 on
    July 20-24, 170 on July 25, 175 on July 26-28, and 180 on July
    29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10 and 8 on June 23-25, then 5,
    5, and 12 on June 26-28, then 5, 5, and 12 again on June 29 through
    July 1, 8 on July 2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8, 5 on July 9-11,
    then a dramatic increase to 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July
    14-15, and 12 on July 16-17, 10 on July 18, 5 on July 19-23, 12 on
    July 24-25, 5 on July 26-27, 12 and 8 on July 28-29, and 5 on July
    30 through August 3.

    These predictions are from forecasters Liming and Dethlefsen of the
    US Air Force 557th Weather Wing at Offutt AFB.

    See https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr[1] .

    So, what does this forecast show for ARRL Field Day, which is this
    weekend?

    Geomagnetic numbers are a bit more unsettled than what was shown in
    last week's bulletin, which had an A index of 5 for Friday through
    Sunday. The latest shows 14, 10 and 8. Predicted solar flux looks
    excellent, at 180, 180 and 185.

    Of course, Field Day does not begin until Saturday, but here we also
    include data for the day prior.

    Here is a X1.1 solar flare video:

    https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA[2]

    Another report from South Asia regarding solar flares as some sort
    of existential threat.  Don't worry. Nothing terrifying about what
    they report, but there is a nice description of what the SOHO
    observatory does.

    https://bit.ly/444VhSk[3]

    https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov[4]

    Reader David Moore shared this video:

    https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video[5]

    Don't know why, but no weekly report from OK1HH this time around.

    On Thursday I attended an online event, the "Space Weather
    Enterprise Forum," thanks to a tip from K6PFA.

    Most of the sessions concerned threats from solar flares, but there
    was great commentary from Bill Murtaugh of NOAA's Space Weather
    Prediction Center.

    He noted that the current solar cycle should peak in summer 2024
    instead of 2025 and will peak much stronger than the consensus
    forecast from earlier in the cycle. He also noted that increased
    flare activity always occurs in the years following a sunspot cycle
    peak.

    John Dudley, Managing Director of Flight Operations at American
    Airlines gave an interesting presentation about how space weather
    affects routing of international flights.

    He mentioned their expert on space weather at the airline, and I
    looked him up. Yes, a ham, KC1ENP. Could not find an email address
    for him, so I sent a QSL card to make contact.

    Thanks to https://spaceweather.com/[6] for this fascinating article about setting up a personal space weather station.  It is under the
    heading, "A New Way To Detect Solar Flares":

    https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 15 through 21, 2023 were 112, 120, 110,
    133, 181, 155, and 190, with a mean of 143. 10.7 cm flux was 153.1,
    157.2, 158.1, 164.1, 168.8, 180.1, and 176.4, with a mean of 165.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 38, 8, 10, 10, 10, and 8,
    with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 17, 24, 8, 12, 9,
    13, and 9, with a mean of 13.1.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr
    [2] https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA
    [3] https://bit.ly/444VhSk
    [4] https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov
    [5] https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video
    [6] https://spaceweather.com/
    [7] https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jun 30 17:01:40 2023
    06/30/2023

    Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:

    "BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly
    facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd
    the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,
    observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye
    through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are
    likely in the days ahead."

    See spaceweather.com[1] for continuing coverage.

    Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the
    exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on
    Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which
    follows.

    There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,
    another on June 26 and another on June 27.

    Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily
    solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

    This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track
    together.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July
    6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,
    175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140
    and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on
    August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may
    continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July
    2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a
    stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8
    on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through
    August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30
    again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are
    predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following
    the July 12-13 prediction.

    The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the
    USAF space weather group.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

    "In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most
    significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It
    happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the
    solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the
    Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .

    "The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two
    days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.

    "Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an
    increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.
    Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of
    20 June.

    "On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above
    the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist
    the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the
    size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.

    "Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to
    beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.

    "The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.

    "AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,
    so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of
    course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect
    throughout the whole HF spectrum."

    Pat, W5THT wrote:

    "I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast
    since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old
    observation.
     
    "There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to
    now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6
    meter propagation to Europe.

    "Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX
    propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana.  This is not
    the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV
    weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure
    that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions
    confirmed?

    "Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather
    fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps
    someone younger than me has already done the research."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!

    "A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday
    afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil
    on 6 meters from North America during the summer.

    "Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on
    radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied
    PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half
    an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked
    CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in
    our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues
    Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."

    An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI[2]

    Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:

    https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ[3]

    "Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/46rC3YU[4]

    Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article
    comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the
    infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.

    https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC[5]

    Another Solar Cycle article:

    https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y[6]

    Yet another Carrington Event article:

    https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o[7]

    Article about Solar max:

    https://bit.ly/44jM5tP[8]

    A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:

    https://bit.ly/445vtWf[9]

    Flares and how they are measured:

    https://bit.ly/3prvtRs[10]

    A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs[11]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14] . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[16]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

    Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,
    180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
    169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and
    8, with a mean of 9.9.

     


    [1] http://spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI
    [3] https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ
    [4] https://bit.ly/46rC3YU
    [5] https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC
    [6] https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y
    [7] https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o
    [8] https://bit.ly/44jM5tP
    [9] https://bit.ly/445vtWf
    [10] https://bit.ly/3prvtRs
    [11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs
    [12] k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [18] http://k9la.us/
    [19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 7 23:41:03 2023
    07/07/2023

    The average daily sunspot number for June, 2023 was the highest in 21 years, according to Spaceweather.com.

    From a July 3 email alert from Spaceweather.com:

    "SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 21-YEAR HIGH:  It's official:  The average sunspot number in June 2023 hit a 21-year high.  Solar Cycle 25 has shot past its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24, and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century."

    Could we see another Cycle 19, the biggest in recorded history, even back before the birth of radio?

    Not too long ago, we heard that this cycle should peak in summer 2025.  Later that was revised to 2024.  Now I am seeing occasional references to a cycle peak at the end of this year.  

    From my own records, average daily sunspot numbers for April through June 2023 were 93.7, 125.8 and 143.9, a nice upward trend.

    Some popular news outlets seem confused by the difference between sunspot number and number of sunspots, and have quoted another higher average.

    Here is the difference.  If they are just counting the total number of sunspots for the month, this is far different from average daily sunspot numbers.  The sunspot number is somewhat subjective, but it gets ten points for each sunspot group, and one point for each sunspot in those groups.

    But I stand by my numbers.  They are all from NOAA and appear at the end of each bulletin.

    But they may be referencing International Sunspot Number, which may be different from the SESC numbers from NOAA.

    Here is an example of confusing sunspot numbers with number of sunspots: https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl[1]

    This one is also confusing, saying there were 163.4 sunspots in June. https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym[2]

    But what does this mean?  It could be either 163 or 164 sunspots, but not a fractional number, unless it expresses an average.  The minimum sunspot number is 11.  This would be one sunspot group containing one spot.  They are always whole, not fractional integers.

    There was one new sunspot region (group) on June 30, three more on July 1, one more on July 2, another on July 4, and one more on July 5.

    Sunspot and solar flux data again this week did not track together. Average daily sunspot number declined from 170 to 126.1, while average daily solar flux rose slightly from 160.3 to 164.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with average daily planetary A index declining from 10.7 to 7.3, and middle latitude averages from 9.9 to 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 155 on July 7, 150 on July 8 to 10, then 155 on July 11, 160 on July 12 to 13, 175 on July 14 to 18, 170 on July 19 to 21, 160 on July 22 and 23, 155 on July 24 and 25, 160 on July 26 and 27, 165 on July 28 and 29, then 170, 170 and 165 on July 30 through August 1, 155 on August 2 to 6, then 160, 165 and 170 on August 7 to 9, and 175 on August 10 to 14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on July 7 to 9, 5 on July 10 and 11, then 20 and 30 on July 12 and 13, 8 on July 14 to 22, 5 on July 23 to 30, 8 on July 31 through August 1, then 5 on August 2 to 4, 12 and 8 on August 5 and 6, then 5, 20 and 30 on August 7 to 9, and 8 on August 10 to 18.

    Note those big numbers are about one solar rotation apart, which is about 27.5 days.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 6, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.  When the current 25th solar cycle began in December 2019, solar astronomers thought it would be a weak cycle similar to its immediate predecessor, solar cycle 24.  But now we have a twenty-one year peak.  And we expect a continued increase for about two more years.

    The misfortune is that ongoing global changes are reducing the ionization rate of the ionosphere.  Yet the current conditions for shortwave or decameter wave propagation do not match the amount of solar activity - they are worse.

    But that's not all.  Not only is solar cycle 25 likely to rival some of the more powerful cycles of the 20th century, but we're likely to see even more powerful solar flares and magnetic storms.  History repeats itself cyclically, and we need only think of the great Halloween storm of 2003, including the strongest solar flare ever recorded in X-ray (X45).

    The giant sunspot group AR3354 (only about four times smaller than the giant sunspot group of early September 1859) made its last appearance on July 2 with an X-class flare.  Two days later it eclipsed.

    We won't lose the source of the stronger flares, however - the growing AR3359, with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, crossed the central meridian toward active western longitudes on July 6 and will continue to grow.  With its predicted higher activity, we could see an increase in the Earth's magnetic field activity as early as the middle of next week.

    Tamitha Skov, from July 1.  https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ[3]

    Blackout  http://bit.ly/46tTRT8  https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz[4]

    Stormy weekend?  https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11]

    Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2023 were 112, 187, 119, 126, 117, 121, and 101, with a mean of 126.1.  10.7 cm flux was 162.2, 158.6, 165.5, 170.2, 173.2, 167.2, and 154.6, with a mean of 164.5.  Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.  Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 6, 8, 7, 5, and 9, with a mean of 8.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl
    [2] https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym
    [3] https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ
    [4] https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz
    [5] https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Jul 14 23:35:52 2023
    07/14/2023

     "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0713UT/13 JULY 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    A glancing CME impact is expected late on 13-July and another CME impact is expected early on 15-July. These impacts present the possibility of geomagnetic storm activity over 13-15 July."

    We saw a welcome rise in solar activity this reporting week, July 6-12. Referencing the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.1 to 181.9, while average daily solar flux increased from 164.5 to 179.4. On July 13 the solar flux was 202.9, well above the average for the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indicators did not change much, average planetary A index going from 7.3 to 8.6 and average daily middle latitude A index from 8 to 8.1.

    The most active day was July 7 when University of Alaska's college A index was 40.  The middle latitude A index on that day was only 11. The college A index is from a magnetometer in Fairbanks.

    What is the outlook for the next month?

    Predicted solar flux looks great over the next few days, at 200, 202, 198, 200, and 204 on July 14-18, 202 on July 19-21, 160 on July 22-23, 155 on July 24-25, 160 on July 26-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, 170 on August 5, 175 on August 6-7, 170 on August 8, then 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, 170 on August 15-17, and 160 on August 18-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 14, 5 on July 15 through August 2, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 3-5, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on August 6-10, 5 on August 11 through the end of the month.

    On July 12, Spaceweather.com reported:  

    "A new hyperactive sunspot is producing M-class solar flares every few hours. This is causing shortwave radio blackouts around all longitudes of our planet. If current trends continue, an X-flare could be in the offing."

    See Spaceweather.com for updates.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere July 14-20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "Over the past week, we were surprised by two large groups of spots that appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    The first of these, AR3363, emerged in the southeast. Although it remained large, there was nothing significant going on. Its opposite was AR 3372 a few days later, which produced moderate-sized flares almost daily.

    In both cases, helioseismic echoes from the sun's far side suggested that it may be the leading edge of a large active region.

    But there was no indication that these would be areas with a diametrically different type of activity.

    The images of the two groups of spots were large enough to be observed by the Mars rover Perseverance. Because of Mars' position, it saw them a few days earlier than a terrestrial observer. For the record: Perseverance observes the Sun daily, but mainly so that it can tell from the drop in brightness that a Martian dust storm is approaching.

    AR3372 activity is increasing, while on July 11 and 12 several M-class solar flares (some with CMEs) have already occurred (X-class flare appeared to be imminent). In particular, it was almost certain that the Earth's magnetic field activity would increase in the following days. The probability of magnetic storms increased significantly as AR3372 rotated more and more toward the Earth."

    Carl, K9LA had comments on the OK1HH report from last week.  "There have been many papers in recent years that have looked at the trends in ionospheric parameters over the past decades. Although the changes are small, they do show up in ionosonde data after much math to eliminate solar activity and geomagnetic field activity. These results show both positive and negative trends in the F2 region electron density, likely due to neutral atmosphere dynamics and electrodynamics that could give regional differences.

    An interesting paper in 2008 Geophysical Research Letters modeled the increased levels of CO2 (global warming) in the atmosphere versus the impact on the ionosphere.

    See: https://bit.ly/3OaThCC[1]

    They used 2000 as the baseline with 365 ppmv of CO2, and doubled the amount of CO2 for the year 2100. Their results showed that electron densities in the E and F1 region would increase a couple percent in 2100 while the height of the E region peak would decrease a couple km. In the F2 region, the electron density would decrease by several percent in 2100 while the height of the F2 region would decrease 10 or so km."

    Thanks to reader David Moore for this, on aurora hype:

    https://bit.ly/44ovzsh[2]

    Flare video (with music.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ[3]

    Huge sunspot:  https://bit.ly/44EcqTz[4]

    Tamitha Skov reports:  https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8]

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12]

    Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2023 were 149, 147, 167, 183, 181, 227, and 219, with a mean of 181.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.6, 161.4, 160.5, 179.2, 190.6, 213.5, and 193.3, with a mean of 179.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 18, 8, 4, 5, 8, and 6, with a mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 16, 6, 4, 6, 8, and 6, with a mean of 8.1.  


    [1] https://bit.ly/3OaThCC
    [2] https://bit.ly/44ovzsh
    [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ
    [4] https://bit.ly/44EcqTz
    [5] https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [11] http://k9la.us/
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Jul 31 22:10:57 2023
    07/21/2023

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this week.  Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and another two on July 19.

    Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9 this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21-23, then 180, 178, 175 and 170 on July 24-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5-8, 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, and 170 on August 15-19, 160 on August 20-23, 165 on August 24-25, then 170 on August 26-27 and 165 on August 28-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-25, 5 on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3-4, 5 on August 5-14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15-17, and 5 on August 18-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "We've seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity, with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun.  Some of these have been the source of CMEs.  If the Earth has been affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process.

    As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earth's magnetic field on the afternoon of 14 July (as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but not nearly as strongly as in 2000).

    Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15. Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it cannibalized the previous CME.  Together, they hit the Earth on July 18.

    But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long-lasting M6-class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm.  Although MUFs were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent occurrences of attenuation.

    Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earth's magnetic field at 1708 UTC.

    Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report will have been completed and sent out.

    Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change: it has been manifested in the last eleven-year cycles, in the Earth's troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is rather the opposite.  It has been the subject of a number of scientific papers in recent years.

    It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of the twentieth century.  Therefore, we should input Ri (or solar flux SFU) into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured and published.

    F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/[1]  "

    News from N8II in West Virginia.

    "The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize; activity levels are normally quite low this summer.  In the IARU contest I observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines in the 2300-0300 UTC period.  I copied GR2HQ (Great Britain HQ station) on 10M CW at 0140 UTC.  At 1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I started running a pile up on CW.

    The Far East was also in on 15M around 1400 UTC Saturday when I worked a loud Japanese station.

    During the evening/night EU signals were extremely loud on 20M.  I also worked a few EU on 10M 1300-1400 UTC Saturday thanks to Sporadic E and also caught Z30HQ (Macedonia HQ) on 10M CW Sunday about 1130 UTC.  I worked 697 QSOs concentrating on DX on the high bands in less than 12 hours with 100 W.

    Africa is workable on 10-15M well into our evening as are South Pacific stations.

    Sporadic E this year seems somewhat attenuated, but Es was good from here and great from the Central/Western USA during the June VHF contest.  I made about 170 CW/SSB QSOs."

    CNN presented a smart piece on the sunspot cycle peaking sooner than expected. https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6[2]

    Double peaked flare.  https://bit.ly/46ZoznE[3]

    Astronomy club observes sunspots.  https://bit.ly/46SaacR[4]

    Aurora.  https://bit.ly/44FxM2U[5]

    Scientific American.  https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB[6]

    Early peak.  https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF[7] https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj[8]

    Cannibal eruption.  https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W[9]

    Great video of eruption.  https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA[10]

    The latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw[11]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]  .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15]  .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[16]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17]  . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19]

    Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2023 were 146, 141, 96, 99, 149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6.  10.7 cm flux was 202.9, 180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with a mean of 12.9.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16, and 7, with a mean of 12.9.


    [1] http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6
    [3] https://bit.ly/46ZoznE
    [4] https://bit.ly/46SaacR
    [5] https://bit.ly/44FxM2U
    [6] https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB
    [7] https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF
    [8] https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W
    [10] https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA
    [11] https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw
    [12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [16] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [18] http://k9la.us/
    [19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Jul 31 22:10:58 2023
    07/28/2023

     Average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week (July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven days.

    Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

    The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29, 158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August 14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160 on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180 on September 2-6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July 30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August 10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10 and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the  remaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few days.

    On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

    Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July. The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that we did not detect.

    Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next comment on August 3, but on August 10."

    Sunspots, flares and aurora.  https://bit.ly/44JxcRp[1]

    Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun.  https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b[2]

    Rocket punches hole in ionosphere.  https://bit.ly/3KceBFB[3]

    Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

    Another CME.  https://bit.ly/44LhRjx[4]

    On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

    "A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet. Maybe next time?"

    Massive flare?  https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC[5]

    Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov.  https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE[6]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[11]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14]

    Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103, 117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1  10.7 cm flux was 184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of 172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and 21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8, 12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.


    [1] https://bit.ly/44JxcRp
    [2] https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b
    [3] https://bit.ly/3KceBFB
    [4] https://bit.ly/44LhRjx
    [5] https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC
    [6] https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE
    [7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [11] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [13] http://k9la.us/
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Aug 19 00:51:09 2023
    08/18/2023

    Eleven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, August 10-16, but average solar indicators declined.

    There were two new sunspots groups on August 11, three more on August 13, another on August 14, two more on August 15, and three more on August 16. On August 17 another new one appeared.

    But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 108.9 to 95.7, while average daily solar flux dropped from 166.4 to 154.2.

    Predicted solar flux is 150, 155, and 157 on August 18-20, 160 on August 21-22, then 162, 165, 162, 160 and 164 on August 23-27, 168 on August 28-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, then 158, 155, 152 and 150 on September 4-7, and 148, 142, 140 and 130 on September 8-11, 135 on September 12-14, and 145, 150, 155, 158 and 160 on September 15-19, 162 on September 20-21, then 160 and 164 on September 22-23, and 168 on September 24-27.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 18-19, 5 on August 20-25, 12 on August 26, 5 on August 27 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-11, then 12, 15, 12 and 8 on September 12-15, 5 on September 16-21, 12 on September 22, and 5 on September 23 through the end of the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 18-24, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "Solar activity has declined, both spot and flare. We have usually observed C-class solar flares, although the configurations of some active regions did not preclude the formation of M-class flares. We expect an upsurge in solar activity in the last five days of August, after which more sunspot groups should appear at the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    The Earth's ionosphere was quite sensitive to the increased influx of protons in the accelerated solar wind on 11 August and again on 16-17 August. Propagation improved on August 14-15 and worsened on August 16. I do not expect any other surprises before the end of the month."

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI, who often reports HF operations from his kayak, wrote:

    "I recently returned from a vacation at Lake Tahoe where I was running 10 watts into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical. The rental place was surrounded by extra-tall pine trees, but the base of the antenna was 30 feet above the ground on a high porch.

    My discovery (on the evenings of August 7 and 9, around 8 p.m. Pacific Coast time) was that CW DX was coming in on the 30-meter band. On the 7th, I contacted OV1CDX in Denmark on that band (and heard him again on subsequent nights). On the 9th, I contacted 6B2A in Egypt, who was coming in a solid S4.

    I had a couple other CW DX twilight/early-night contacts on 15 and 20 meters, but the 30 meter contacts surprised me."

    N4KZ reports from Frankfort, Kentucky:

    "Last week, I began copying SSB signals from Europe on the 10 and 12-meter bands.  They were weak but readable. It was the first time I've heard SSB signals on those bands from that part of the world in many months. Then, on August 15th beginning at 1248 UTC, I worked stations across Europe and the Middle East on 12-meter SSB with strong signals.

    About 20 minutes earlier, I tuned across the 10-meter phone band and only copied one signal. It was S79VU, Ravi, in the Seychelles. He was about S5 and working Europeans who I did not copy. But he came back to me on my first call. We've worked before but this was our first 10-meter QSO. It's only mid-August, but perhaps autumn propagation is beginning to emerge and with the continuing high sunspot count, I hope this marks the start of better HF conditions this fall and winter. I run about 800 watts into a multi-band Yagi with 3 active elements on each band. The antenna is up 55 feet. I live on a hilltop with a steep slope toward the north which has proven over the years to be an advantage.

    On July 1, I once again became active on the low-end of 2 meters doing weak-signal work. I was quite active on SSB and CW on the low end throughout the 1980s and '90s and to a lesser extent until about 2010. I worked 40 states from Kentucky but eventually decided to concentrate on HF and 6 meters. But I missed 2 meters and now I have returned.

    There's less SSB and CW than there used to be but quite a few are operating FT8 on 144.174 MHz which does a nice job with weak signals. So far I have worked 15 states and Ontario. Morning propagation a couple hours after sunrise allows for 300-400 mile QSOs routinely on FT8. And I've copied stations from Colorado, Long Island, NY and Connecticut on meteor scatter while using MSK144. After a 12-year hiatus from 2-meter weak-signal work, it's good to be back."

    AA6XE in Fremont, California wrote:

    "Interesting conditions on 10 meters although not that unusual. In the last couple of days propagation into the Pacific Northwest has materialized. A bunch of Beacons have surfaced. Beacons from

    Portland to well north of Vancouver BC are coming in every afternoon. I heard Tad Cook's (K7RA) 10 meter beacon yesterday (Aug 13). Beacons out of Mexico have been coming in on 10 Meters for over a month. Some of those beacons are located as far South as Veracruz. Beacons from Australia have been coming through on most days over the last month. NCDXF beacons VK6RBP in Western Australia and 4S7B in Sri Lanka were heard on 15 Meters for a few days.

    While propagation on 10 to the Pacific Northwest may not seem like much I recognize it as a marker that the days of summer propagation are numbered. Typically this doesn't happen until the last 2 weeks in August so it appears to be early this year. So like the Crocuses popping up in late February it doesn't do much for one aside from reminding us that better times are on the way.

    As to what we can expect this Fall it looks to be much improved over last year and at the peak of Cycle 24. The 90 day mean SFI currently stands at 166. Last year at this time 90 day mean stood at 114. The 90 day Mean SFI for the peak of Solar Cycle 24 was 155.  The 90 Day Mean made a significant run-up during late Spring early Summer increasing 21 points. For the last 5 weeks the Daily SFI has been sliding. It hasn't dropped enough to impact the 90 and 81 Day Mean Values just yet, but if the decline continues those numbers will sag.

    The rising phase of SC25 has its own characteristics. The solar flux rises rapidly for 4 to 8 weeks followed by an extended period of decline for 2 to 3 months. This makes it difficult to see the overall trend. It even faked out a number of heliophysicists who made the call that SC 25 had peaked in February 2023. The latest predictions call for SC 25 to peak at year-end 2023/2024. A few are calling for SC 25 to peak at mid-year 2024. It would be a pleasant surprise if the next surge kicks off a few weeks early, say by the first days of September. That would make a big impact of the conditions we can expect on 6 Meters this Fall."

    The latest from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg[1]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.


    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at:

    http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3] .

    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see:

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[5]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at: 

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] .

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 10 through 16, 2023 were 83, 105, 61, 89, 85, 107, and 140, with a mean of 95.7  10.7 cm flux was 155.7, 152.8, 148.3, 150.4, 154, 158.1, and 160.1, with a mean of 154.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 8, 5, 5, 4, and 8, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 10, 7, 6, 7, and 10, with a mean of 7.7.


    [1] https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg
    [2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [5] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Aug 25 23:57:28 2023
    08/25/2023

    Five new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on August 17, another August 18, two more on August 21 and another on August 22.  

     Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly, while average daily solar flux declined. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 95.7 to 105.9 and average daily solar flux declined from 154.2 to 149.4.

    No big geomagnetic events this week, and average daily planetary A index changed from 6 to 8.4 while average daily middle latitude index went from 7.7 to 10.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 145 on August 25-26, 150 on August 27, 155 on August 28-29, 160 on August 30-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, 162 on September 4-5, 158 on September 6-7, then 160 and 162 on September 8-9, 158 on September 10-11, 155 on September 12, 152 on September 13-15, 153 on September 16-18, 155 on September 19, and 158 on September 20-23, 162 on September 24-25, 165 on September 26-28, then 163 and 160 on September 29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 25, then 5, 10 and 8 on August 26-28, 5 on August 29 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-13, 12 on September 14, 10 on September 15-17, and 5 on September 18 through the end of the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 25-31, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    Although solar activity has been rated as low over the last seven days, let's not be misled by an assessment based mainly on the number and importance of flares. Solar activity continues to increase toward the peak of cycle 25, expected in two years. Projected into the highest usable ionospheric F2 layer frequencies, this means that we may finally be able to look forward to a wide opening of the ten-meter band for DX shortwave contacts. If it occurs during this fall, we can expect the 25th cycle maximum to be quite high after all.

    It was pretty quiet over the weekend as all eight sunspot groups had stable magnetic fields. Despite another large sunspot appearing in the meantime, apparently magnetically connected to another sunspot on the other side of the solar equator, there was still not much going on. Only the M1.1 0 class solar flare on August 22 at 2304 UTC was an exception. But although it lasted long enough to carry a CME out of the solar atmosphere, it evidently did not.

    On August 23, a filament erupted near the southwest limb of the Sun. If it envelops the Earth, it would likely not happen until August 27, with a possible G1 class storm.

    Max White, M0VNG sent this about solar wind: https://bit.ly/3YQToa7[1]

    Reader Jeremy Gill of Seattle, WA contributed this article on aurora and the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/44sRGgh[2]  .

    Warnings about solar activity, some a bit shrill:

    https://bit.ly/3qHy6za[3]   https://bit.ly/3YLsoc[4] 

    https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3[5]   https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP[6]

    A new video from Tamitha Skov:  https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE[7]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]  . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11]  .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at:

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] .

    More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]
    .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 17 through 23, 2023 were 135, 112, 104, 93, 102, 96, and 99, with a mean of 105.9.  10.7 cm flux was 151.9, 150.6, 150.6, 146.3, 148.7, 150.9, and 147, with a mean of 149.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 11, 8, 11, 9, 8, and 4, with a mean of 8.4.  Middle latitude A index was 10, 14, 8, 12, 10, 12, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3YQToa7
    [2] https://bit.ly/44sRGgh
    [3] https://bit.ly/3qHy6za
    [4] https://bit.ly/3YLsoc
    [5] https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3
    [6] https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP
    [7] https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE
    [8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 1 23:12:35 2023
    09/01/2023

    First, this alert from Australia.

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0706UTC/31 AUGUST 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    A filament eruption and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) were observed on UT day 30-Aug. This CME is expected to impact Earth from 1800 UT +/- 12 hours on 02-Sep, with impacts possibly rolling into UT day 03-Sep. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over this time, with a chance for periods of G3."

    Solar activity was down again this week, with average daily sunspot numbers dropping from 105.9 to 78.7, and average daily solar flux from 149.4 to 140.9.

    Only three sunspot groups appeared, one each on August 25, 28 and 30.

    But I have noticed a gradual transition from summer toward fall conditions, with 10 and 12 meter openings more frequent. The autumnal equinox is only three weeks from now.

    Geomagnetic indicators were a little lower. Average planetary A index went from 8.4 to 7, and average middle latitude numbers from 10.1 to 8.9.

    What is the outlook?

    Predicted solar flux shows a peak around 168 on September 18-21.

    Forecast values are 140 on September 1, then 150, 150 and 145 on September 2-4, 150 on September 5-9, 147 on September 10-11, then 145, 150, 155, 150, 155 and 160 on September 12-17, 168 on September 18-21, then 165, 160, and 148 on September 22-24, 150 on September 25-26, then 152, 150, 145,and 140 on September 27-30, then 145 on October 1, 150 on October 2-3, 152 on October 4, 156 on October 5-6, 150 on October 7. and 148 on October 8-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 35 on September 1-3, then 15, 10 and 8 on September 4-6, 5 on September 7-13, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on September 14-17, 5 on September 18-22, then 10, 10 and 8 on September 23-25, 5 on September 26 to October 2, then 10, 8 and 8 on October 3-5, and 5 on October 6-10.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for September 1-7, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "On 27 August, we predicted a rise in geomagnetic activity, triggered by the arrival of particles from the filament solar flares three days earlier. It did occur, but to a lesser extent than we expected. No significant solar flare (at least of M-class) was observed until 25 August, which is somewhat surprising for the current phase of Cycle 25 development.

    We did not see a major flare until August 26 at 2250 UTC, and it was an M1-class solar flare, hidden behind the Sun's eastern edge, but it was a long duration eruption (LDE). It was accompanied by a CME, which of course was not heading toward Earth, but in this case Mars (which it should hit on September 1).

    The coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on August 29 at about 1748 UTC near the coordinates N05W35. Another major solar flare, C3, was observed on August 30 with a maximum at 2334 UTC at AR 3413.

    Prior to that, a filament of solar plasma disappeared near S18W24 at 2015 UTC.

    Still, we expect only a slight increase in Earth's magnetic field activity in the next few days.

    Ionospheric propagation has varied erratically, with partial credit due to the sporadic E layer that occurred irregularly in Earth's northern hemisphere late this summer."

    India's solar mission:  https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N[1]

    Flares:  https://bit.ly/47X6gzC[2]

    Four hours of Tamitha Skov and extreme space weather events:

    https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs[3]

    This weekend is the phone portion of the All Asia DX Contest:

    https://bit.ly/43GPrXq[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see:  

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11]  .

    Sunspot numbers for August 24 through 30, 2023 were 86, 77, 75, 69, 68, 82, and 94, with a mean of 78.7.  10.7 cm flux was 144.1, 138.9, 139.3, 141.5, 141.7, 142.2, and 138.6, with a mean of 140.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 5, 7, 11, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 9, 13, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 8.9.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N
    [2] https://bit.ly/47X6gzC
    [3] https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs
    [4] https://bit.ly/43GPrXq
    [5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 8 15:28:08 2023
    09/08/2023

    At 0046 UTC on September 8, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued this alert:

    "A solar filament erupted from the north east quadrant of the Sun on
    07-Sep. Event modeling shows an edge of the associated north east
    directed CME may graze the Earth's magnetosphere on 10-Sep.
    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOR 10 SEPTEMBER 2023."

    Eight new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on September 2, two
    on September 3, two more on September 4, and one each on September
    5-6, followed by another on Thursday, September 7.

    Average daily sunspot number was up, from 78.7 to 95.4, while
    average daily solar flux was less, from 140.9 to 137.6.

    Geomagnetic activity was higher. On September 2 the planetary A
    index was 38, when Earth moved through a high speed solar wind. In
    Alaska, the college A index at Fairbanks was 59.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 7 to 15.4, and
    average middle latitude A index rose from 8.9 to 16.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 155, 158 and 155 on September 8-10, 150 on
    September 11-16, then 155, 150, 155 and 150 on September 17-20, 145
    on September 21-22, 150 on September 23-24, 145 on September 25, 140
    on September 26-27, 135 on September 28-30, then 130, 135, 130 and
    135 on October 1-4, then 140 on October 5-6, then 135, 135 and 140
    on October 7-9, 145 on October 10-11, 150 on October 12-13, then
    155, 150, 155 and 150 on October 14-17.

    Predicted planetary A index 10 and 12 on September 8-9, 8 on
    September 10-13, then 5, 8, and 12 on September 14-16, 8 on
    September 17-18, 5 on September 19-22, 12 on September 23, 5 on
    September 24-27, then 8, 12, 5 and 12 on September 28 through
    October 1, then 12, 10, 12 and 10 on October 2-5, and 5 on October
    6-10, then 10, 8 and 12 on October 11-13, and 8 on October 14-15,
    and 5 over the following week.

    I observed interesting 12 meter propagation using FT8 on September
    4, at 1745 UTC with https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[1] in which my
    signal was only received over a narrow 300 mile band hugging the East
    Coast from Maine to Florida, all signal reports between 2200 to 2500
    miles away, nowhere else.

    Three hours later at 2045 UTC, the reports along the coast expanded
    to 600 miles, 2000 to 2600 miles wide.

    Later at 2300 UTC it was the same pattern, but a 200 mile band,
    2300-2500 miles wide.

    The next day at 1700 UTC it was an arc from Virginia to South Texas,
    1700 to 2300 miles. At 1715 UTC it drifted to coverage of 1750 to
    2600 miles.

    Before FT8 and pskreporter, there was no practical way for me to
    observe any of this. Who knew?

    Rick Cochran, WO8L wrote:

    "So, despite all of the indicators being pretty good, why are the
    bands so terrible?

    "In the nearly 60 years I've been a ham this Sun cycle has
    consistently been a dud compared to past cycles, especially during
    the day.

    "So many of us would like to know why."

    I replied:

    "Good question. You aren't the only one to ask."

    There is a theory that carbon in the atmosphere or a warming climate contributes to this, but I do not understand the mechanism. K9LA
    told me that models do not support this, but at the moment I cannot
    recall what those models are. This issue was discussed in previous
    bulletins.

    Another theory is that this is a perception issue related to the
    widespread adoption of FT8, in which users of traditional modes see
    less activity on CW and SSB and perceive poorer propagation as a
    result.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 7, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
     
    "In late August, as AR3413 approached the northwestern limb of the
    solar disk, its eruptive activity began to increase, even though its
    size and magnetic configuration did not suggest it. However, we
    observed it at a very low angle, so we may have missed details.

    "Either way, it was the source of several C- and M-class flares, at
    least two of which (on August 30 and September 1) ejected CMEs. Both
    hit the Earth triggering a G2 class geomagnetic storm. For shortwave propagation, this meant a significant improvement and increase in
    MUF in the positive phase of the disturbance on 2 September
    0900-1300 UTC, followed by a deterioration for the next few days.

    "AR3413 meanwhile, continued with increased eruptive activity on the
    Sun's far side, including a massive CME on 5 September, but it no
    longer affected the Earth. It merely 'ripped off the tail' (a
    disconnection event) of comet Nishimura (C/2023 P1), which is
    approaching the Sun. Its closest approach will be on September 17.

    "A relative improvement in shortwave propagation did not occur until
    September 5, with a jump in solar wind speed at 1439 UTC. Meanwhile,
    active region AR3421 began to grow significantly around the central
    meridian.

    "The magnetic configuration points to the possibility of
    geoeffective flares. This was followed by the growth of other active
    regions in the northeast of the solar disk, so that solar activity
    remains elevated. Since we expect the Earth's magnetic field to calm
    down, shortwave propagation conditions should gradually improve.
    Seasonal changes as the equinoxes approach will also contribute to
    this."

    The Autumnal Equinox in the northern hemisphere is just two weeks
    away.

    Here is a solar cycle prediction:

    https://bit.ly/45Gxb1n[2]

    Nice video, once you get past the ads:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8nub71[3]

    A "Solar Orbiter EUI" video from Max White, M0VNG and the European
    Space Agency:

    https://bit.ly/44JG2hr[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

    Sunspot numbers for August 31 through September 6, 2023 were 77, 83,
    77, 79, 100, 121, and 131, with a mean of 95.4  10.7 cm flux was
    139.9, 135.8, 131.2, 130.5, 136, 142.9, and 147.1, with a mean of
    137.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 38, 25, 8, 11, and
    8, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 15, 25, 28,
    14, 14, and 10, with a mean of 16.3.


    [1] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
    [2] https://bit.ly/45Gxb1n
    [3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8nub71
    [4] https://bit.ly/44JG2hr
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 15 13:42:38 2023
    09/15/2023

    Like last week, eight new sunspot groups emerged this reporting
    week, September 7-13.

    One appeared on September 7, another September 9, four more on
    September 10, another on September 11 and one more on September 12.

    Solar activity made a nice comeback, with average daily sunspot
    numbers rising from 95.4 to 138.1, and solar flux from 137.6 to
    159.9.

    The most active geomagnetic day was September 12, when the planetary
    A index was 25. Spaceweather.com reported a "stealth CME"
    (unexpected) that had aurora visible down as far as Missouri.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased from 15.4 to 10.4, and
    middle latitude numbers from 16.3 to 11.3.

    The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is just a week away,
    on September 22.

    It seems that the next sustained short term peak in solar flux is a
    few weeks off, with values between 150 and 155 over October 12-17,
    although it is expected to reach 150 on September 23-24.

    The forecast shows solar flux at 145, 148, 145 and 145 on September
    15-18, 140 on September 19-21, 145 on September 22, 150 on September
    23-24, 145 on September 25, 140 on September 26-27, 135 on September
    28-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 1-4, 140 on October
    5-6, 135 on October 7-8, 140 on October 9, 145 on October 10-11, 150
    om October 12-13, then 155, 150, 155 and 150 on October 14-17, 145
    on October 18-19, and 150 on October 20-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 15, 8 on September
    16-17, then 5, 5, and 10 on September 18-20, 5, 8 and 12 on
    September 21-23, 5 on September 24-27, then 8, 12 and 8 on September
    28-30, and 5 on October 1-8, then 15, 12, 10 and 8 on October 9-12,
    5 on October 13-19, 12 on October 20, and 5 on October 21-24.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 15-22, 2023 from OK1HH.
     
    "A week ago, the active sunspot group AR3414 dominated the solar
    disk. It is now on the far side of the Sun. This role has been taken
    over by AR3423, now approaching the western limb of the solar disk.
    It will be followed the next day by the slightly smaller AR3425. The
    important information is that we observe a coronal hole near both of
    them (closer to AR3425). This configuration was the likely cause of
    the surprise: Few people expected the Earth to be hit by a CME on
    September 12 at 1237 UT.

    "Then a massive disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field developed.
    Its initial positive phase increased the MUF values on September 12.
    This was followed by a negative phase, which in turn caused a
    significant decrease in MUF, with worsened shortwave propagation
    conditions on 13 September. This was followed by a gradual
    improvement on 14 September, when the magnetic filament connecting
    sunspots AR3423 and AR3425 erupted. The consequence could be a G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storm in the Earth's vicinity on 17 September."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote from Kansas:

    "Sunday afternoon and evening (September 10-11) strong sporadic-E on
    6 meters took place.

    "This set up links to TEP on to South America.

    "The hot spot seemed to be south Central Kansas and northeast
    Oklahoma. KF0M in EM17 worked many South American stations. From
    EM28, the Es was not lined up that well.

    "Had many strong stations in south Texas and northern Mexico.
    Around 2250 UTC LU1MQF (FF55) and CE4MBH (FF44) appeared for a few minutes on 50.313 MHz FT8.

    "Any sporadic-E is a treat in the September ARRL VHF contest (which
    was last weekend). With Solar Cycle 25 picking up, the Es can link
    to TEP."

    An article about the Sun from IFLScience:

    https://www.iflscience.com/has-part-of-the-sun-really-become-broken-70653
    [1]
    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/S2IOBwSo_LI[2]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3] .When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[4]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 7 through 13, 2023 were 135, 123, 119,
    167, 173, 141, and 109, with a mean of 138.1.  10.7 cm flux was
    160.8, 160.9, 161.4, 163.9, 176.4, 153.5, and 142.6, with a mean of
    159.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 8, 4, 7, 25, and 17,
    with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 11, 8, 12, 6, 8,
    17, and 17, with a mean of 11.3.

     


    [1] https://www.iflscience.com/has-part-of-the-sun-really-become-broken-70653 [2] https://youtu.be/S2IOBwSo_LI
    [3] k7ra@arrl.net
    [4] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 22 17:56:45 2023
    09/22/2023

    ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0249UTC on 22 SEPTEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

    "Solar wind streams from a pair of coronal holes are expected to
    mildly increase geomagnetic activity at times during the interval
    late 22-Sep to 24-Sep.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM 22-24 SEPTEMBER 2023."

    Nine new sunspot groups appeared this week, but the averages were
    lower.

    A new sunspot group appeared every day from September 15-17, four
    more on September 18, and one each day on September 19-20.

    On Thursday, the start of the next reporting week two more sunspot
    groups appeared.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 138.1 to 118.4, while
    average daily solar flux went from 159.9 to 149.3.

    The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere occurs on Saturday,
    September 23 at 2:50 AM EDT, or 0650z.  The change in seasons has
    been evident recently with improving propagation on 10 and 12
    meters.

    A fast moving CME hit Earth on September 18, sparking dramatic
    displays of aurora across the northern tier of North America and in
    Europe as far south as France.

    Alaska's college A index was 49 and 61 on September 18-19, while the
    planetary A index was 30 and 49.

    Predicted solar flux is 162, 162 and 165 on September 22-24, 160 on
    September 25-28, 135 on September 29-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135
    on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-6, 135 on October 7-8, then 140,
    145 and 145 on October 9-11, then 150, 150, 155 and 150 on October
    12-15, and 155, 150, 145 and 145 on October 16-19, then 150, 150 and
    145 on October 20-22, 140 on October 23-24, 135 on October 25-27,
    then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 28-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 22, 22 on September
    23-24, then 12 and 8 on September 25-26, 5 on September 27-28, 12
    and 8 on September 29-30, 5 October 1-11, 8 on October 12, then 5 on
    October 13-19, 12 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, then 8, 12 and
    8 on October 25-27, then 5 on October 28 into the first week of
    November.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 21, 2023 from OK1HH:
     
    "Although the site https://solarham.net/ [1]launched on March 15, 2006,
    created and still maintained solely by Kevin,VE3EN, is primarily
    intended for amateur radio users, it is also very well regarded by
    professional astronomers. In addition to information about the Sun,
    it contains everything needed to understand the causes of changes in
    the ionosphere, and also provides an overview and forecast of the
    Earth's magnetic field activity. On Thursday, September 21, we read:
    'Solar activity is predicted to remain at low (C-Flares) to moderate
    (M-Flares) levels during the next 24 hours. AR-3435 is considered
    the most likely region to produce a moderate to strong solar flare.'

    "The information can be supplemented by saying that the level of
    solar activity has been rising in recent days, and this rise was
    accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 400 km/s to over
    600 km/s between 18-20 September. In particular, the solar wind
    proton influx increased significantly on 18 September; moreover, a
    geomagnetic disturbance with intensity G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong)
    took place on 18-19 September.

    "The Earth's ionosphere responded to these events with a significant
    decrease in MUF, especially since 18 September. Shortwave conditions
    were above average for the last time on 10-12 September, including a
    positive phase of the disturbance on the latter day. Around the
    equinox we usually expect improvement, but now it was the opposite
    as a result of disturbances.

    "As another very good source of information, I can particularly
    recommend the Space Weather Monitor (https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm[2]), as it also
    contains the most important data on the Earth's ionosphere."

    From reader David Moore, on Parker Solar Probe:

    https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E[3]

    More Parker Solar Probe news:

    https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl[4]

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 14 through 20, 2023 were 110, 96, 88,
    94, 139, 143, and 159, with a mean of 118.4.  10.7 cm flux was
    145.2, 139.1, 140.4, 144.6, 154.5, 166.1, and 155.5, with a mean of
    149.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 7, 7, 16, 30, 49, and
    16, with a mean of 20.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 7, 5, 14,
    21, 38, and 15, with a mean of 18.1.

     


    [1] https://solarham.net/
    [2] https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E
    [4] https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl
    [5] https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Sep 29 17:10:34 2023
    09/29/2023

    Solar activity was up for this reporting week, September 21-27.
    Eight new sunspot groups appeared, two on September 21, two more on
    September 22, two more on September 25, another on September 26 and
    another on September 27.

    The average daily sunspot number jumped from 118.4 to 170.6, while
    average daily solar flux went from 149.3 to 168.8.

    The Autumnal Equinox was last weekend in the Northern Hemisphere, so
    our Earth is bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation in both
    hemispheres.

    The average daily planetary A index went from 20.4 to 17, while
    middle latitude numbers changed from 18.1 to 13.7. Thursday had the
    strongest geomagnetic activity, and Alaska's college A index was 68,
    triggering a geomagnetic storm with aurora visible across the
    northern tier of the United States. Activity peaked around 1200-1800
    UTC, with planetary K index at 5.33.

    Regarding solar flux predictions, the next predicted peak is at 168
    on October 20-23.

    Predicted flux values are 148 on September 29-30, then 145, 143 and
    145 on October 1-3, 148 on October 4-5, 155 on October 6, 160 on
    October 7-8, 155 on October 9, 150 on October 10-11, 145 on October
    12-14, then 150, 155, 155, 160 and 165 on October 15-19, 168 on
    October 20-23, then 164, 160, 160, 168 and 150 on October 24-28,
    then 145 and 150 on October 29-30, 155 on  October 31 through
    November 2, 160 on November 3-4, and 155 on November 5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, and 8 on September 29 through
    October 1, then 8, 15, 12, 8 and 15, on October 2-5, then 5 on
    October 6-21, then 10 and 8 on October 22-23, and 5 on October 24
    through November 7, and 55 on November 8.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 27, 2023 from OK1HH:
     
    "During September we saw nearly regular fluctuations in solar and
    geomagnetic activity. M-class flares occurred nearly every day, some accompanied by plasma eruptions (CMEs). On 24-25 September, the
    fourth and strongest solar-origin proton cloud (G3) of the month
    struck Earth.

    "With such a large number of disturbances, each lasting several
    days, there was a significant decrease in MUF and a general
    deterioration of shortwave propagation (September 3-5, 13-15, 18-20
    and since 25 September).

    "After these disturbances, due to the high solar activity,
    relatively rapid improvements followed, the best of which was
    observed from 10 September onward. It culminated in a positive phase
    of disturbance during the daytime hours of UTC on 12 September, with
    the highest MUF values, and thus the best opening of the upper
    shortwave bands. This also made the following deterioration, which
    started already on the night of 13 September, even more noticeable.

    "Given the number and duration of disturbances and despite several improvements, overall propagation was below average. This pattern
    began in August and given the trend in solar activity, looks set to
    continue for the time being."

    Gregory Andracke, W2BEE sent these two articles about Aurora
    Borealis:

    https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q[1]

    https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj[2]

    Check out his web site:

    http://www.andracke.com/[3]

    Here are more articles and videos about aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4[4]

    https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy[5]

    https://bit.ly/48ASMtK[6]

    https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ[7]

    https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX[8]

    https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk[9]

    https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V[10]

    https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw[11]

    https://bit.ly/469xDFw[12]

    https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA[13]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[14]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

    Sunspot numbers for September 21 through 27, 2023 were 159, 184,
    198, 172, 164, 179, and 138, with a mean of 170.6. 10.7 cm flux was
    168.1, 175.7, 173, 173.7, 170.2, 164.9, and 156, with a mean of
    168.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 10, 21, 23, 32, and
    15, with a mean of 17. Middle latitude A index was 10, 7, 9, 17, 15,
    26, and 12, with a mean of 13.7.

     


    [1] https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q
    [2] https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj
    [3] http://www.andracke.com/
    [4] https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4
    [5] https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy
    [6] https://bit.ly/48ASMtK
    [7] https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ
    [8] https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX
    [9] https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk
    [10] https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V
    [11] https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw
    [12] https://bit.ly/469xDFw
    [13] https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA
    [14] k7ra@arrl.net
    [15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [16] http://k9la.us/
    [17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 6 23:30:25 2023
    10/06/2023

    At 2308 UTC on October 5, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

    "A recent, mild CME impact, combined with the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream on 7 Oct, gives the chance for G1 geomagnetic conditions over 6 and 7 Oct."

    Seven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, but overall solar activity declined.

    With consecutive dates you can initiate an animation using the back and forward buttons on your browser.

    We are currently enjoying improved HF propagation with the change of seasons after the autumnal equinox.  This is particularly noticeable on 12 and 10 meters.

    Here is an optimistic news story about the current solar cycle.

    https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/[1]

    https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1[2]

    One new sunspot group appeared on September 30, three more on October 1, and one on each of the following days, October 2, 3 and 4.  On October 5, two more sunspot groups appeared, and the daily sunspot number shot up to 179, the highest since September 26. Previously, a high of 219 was on July 12.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 170.6 to 128.6, while average daily solar flux went from 168.8 to 155.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter.  Average daily planetary A index went from 17 to 9.1, and average daily middle latitude A index declined from 13.7 to 8.9.

    The outlook for the next month has predicted solar flux at 158 on October 6 and 7, 155, 152, 152, 150 and 145 on October 8 to 12, 158 on October 13 and 14, 156 on October 15 to 17, 154 on October 18 to 20, 152 on October 21, 154 on October 22 and 23, 156 and 158 on October 24 and 25, 160 on October 26 to 28, 162 on October 29 to 31, then 164 on November 1 to 3, 168 on November 4, 165 on November 5 and 6, 162 and 160 on November 7 and 8, 158 on November 9 and 10, and 156 on November 11 to 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 25, 10 and 5 on October 6 to 9, 8 on October 10 and 11, 5 on October 12 to 21, then 10 and 8 on October 22 to 23, 5 on October 24 to 28, then 15, 12, 8, 15 and 8 on October 29 through November 2, and 5 on November 3 through the middle of the month.

    Flares in the news:

    https://bit.ly/46AiGMs[3]

    https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3[4]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- October 5, 2023 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "After witnessing a number of solar flares (though at most of moderate magnitude) during the past month, plus three solar plasma cloud impacts (CMEs), late September and early October, which were a bit quieter.

    However, the development of solar and especially geomagnetic activity was so irregular that it was difficult to make predictions for the following days.
    The geomagnetic calm on 28 September did not mean an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions, but rather a deterioration compared to the previous day, which was not calm.  The improvement on 2 and 3 October was the result of a relative calm with non-declining solar activity.

    Subsequent developments were mostly quieter.  Nevertheless, there were significant fluctuations in MUF on 4 October with a slight deterioration.  The explanation for the causes can be found mainly in the timing of the overall development.  Specifically, deterioration often occurred after geomagnetic activity increased overnight.  In addition, sporadic layer E activity increased at times (especially on 4-5 October).  There was also a slight increase in the concentration of protons in the solar wind on 3 October and especially still on 5 October.

    Irregular propagation conditions can be expected to continue, yet there should already be less of a difference between expectations and actual developments in October than there was in September."

    W2BEE sent this about aurora: https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU[5]

    Time lapse animation of sunspot:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg[6]

    Max White M0VNG sent this, about the solar atmosphere:

    https://bit.ly/3ZJydau[7]

    Check these links for the upcoming HamSCI propagation tests during upcoming solar eclipses, the first on October 14, 2023:

    https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse[8]

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023[9]

    New report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM[10]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation  .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14]

    Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4, 2023 were 109, 102, 106, 136, 146, 150, and 151, with a mean of 128.6.  10.7 cm flux was 147.8, 155, 159.1, 161.1, 157.4, 153.7, and 155, with a mean of 155.6.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 10, 9, 9, 8, and 10, with a mean of 9.1.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 13, 11, 9, 10, 6, and 8, with a mean of 8.9.


    [1] https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/
    [2] https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1
    [3] https://bit.ly/46AiGMs
    [4] https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3
    [5] https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU
    [6] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg
    [7] https://bit.ly/3ZJydau
    [8] https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse
    [9] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023
    [10] https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM
    [11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [12] http://k9la.us/
    [13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 13 13:52:53 2023
    10/13/2023

    The numbers looked better during this reporting week, October 5-11.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 128.6 to 144.1, and average
    solar flux from 155.6 to 159.1.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 7.6, and average
    middle latitude A index from 8.9 to 8.3.

    For some reason the middle latitude numbers were not available from Fredericksburg, Virginia so we used the data from Boulder, Colorado.

    Nine new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 5,
    one on October 7, two on October 8, one on October 9, another on
    October 10, and two more on October 11.

    HF conditions have been excellent, as the season turns deeper into
    Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. I really notice a difference on
    10, 12 and 15 meters.

    Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 13, 155 on October 14-16, 152
    on October 17-18, then 150, 148, 150 and 152 on October 19-22, 152
    on October 23-24, 158 on October 25, 160 on October 26-28, 158 on
    October 29-30, 156 on October 31 through November 1, then 155, 156,
    156, 158 and 160 on November 2-6, 158 on November 7-8, then 156 on
    November 9-10, then 155, 154, 152 and 150 on November 11-14, 148 on
    November 15-16, then 150, 152, 154 and 154 on November 17-20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 5, 12, 10 and 8 on October
    13-19, 5 on October 20-30, 15 and 12 on October 31 through November
    1, 5 on November 2-5, then 10, 8, and 10 on November 6-8, 15 on
    November 9-10, then 8 on November 11, and 5 on November 12 to the
    end of the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere October 13-19, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Unlike most days in September, the Earth's geomagnetic activity has
    finally dropped. Solar activity is high enough that there was a
    significant improvement in shortwave propagation on a global scale.

    "Around October 7, although there was still a possibility that Earth
    would be hit by a CME that left the Sun on October 3, it did not
    happen. Whereupon, especially on quiet days in the middle of this
    week, the improvement was unmistakable.

    "Two or three sunspot groups continue to be observed on the Sun.
    They are able to produce up to moderate intensity flares. But the
    area of the spots is not large, so we do not expect a CME based on
    their magnetic configuration either.

    "Thanks to helioseismology, we know of more extensive active regions
    on the far side of the Sun. Therefore, it is safe to assume that
    solar activity will be elevated for the rest of October. Which of
    course brings with it possible increases in solar wind speeds with
    higher particle concentrations, but this is not enough to predict a disturbance, only to vaguely state the possibility of one."

    Dan, K7SS wrote:

    "Just an FYI to those of us who may know anyone new to HF, and the
    fact that 10m seems to be at a fantastic peak of conditions
    recently, it would be a great shame for anyone who is new to HF to
    miss this peak (or pre-peak?) with 10m so open during the daylight
    and well into the evening darkness. Just recall the thrill of DX you
    had early on.

    "Would like to encourage everyone [in the club] to think about who
    they might know that's pretty new and give a gentle prod to get them
    on 10m. Even with a minimal antenna and power, the band is
    supporting signals around the world right now. This may be our peak,
    or perhaps this is a bellwether of things to come and may get even
    better, but maybe not!

    "If any tech licensee can get on 10m with even a minimal signal, it
    will not disappoint. 28300 to 28500 kHz is theirs, and the
    playground is full. And no place better to get the DX BUG than by
    working some EU with low power and a small wire or vertical antenna.
    NOW IS THE TIME.

    "You don't want to have to explain in a year or two from now, that
    they SHOULD have been on working DX and if not, may have to wait for
    another cycle peak in 12-14 years.

    "Personally, I'm having the time of my life with EU openings in the
    morning around 10AM-12PM local. The THRILL IS BACK! 10m Lives."

    An article about a 15,000 year history of extreme solar events:

    https://bit.ly/3FctowT[1]

    Commercial space companies approach their first solar maximum:

    https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma[2]

    Korean records from the 14th to 19th centuries reveal sunspot cycle
    history:

    https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af[3]

    Safely watch the eclipse with a disco ball. (I do not know if this
    is actually safe):

    https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz[4]

    Articles about the "Ring of Fire" solar eclipse:

    https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY[5]

    https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc[6]

    An article about the Sun's polarity flip:

    https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF[7]

    Video about Sunspot AR3038:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl[8]

    Optimistic outlook on Aurora:

    https://bit.ly/46tIOcb[9]

    Don't forget the eclipse event this Saturday, October 14:

    www.hamsci.org/eclipse[10]

    And at the last minute Thursday night, a new video from Dr. Tamitha
    Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw[11]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 5 through 11, 2023 were 179, 138, 145,
    149, 129, 120, and 149, with a mean of 144.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    156.1, 155.3, 157.2, 157.1, 165.5, 164.4, and 158, with a mean of
    159.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 9, 5, 7, 8, 4, and 4,
    with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 4, 10, 9, 6,
    and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3FctowT
    [2] https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma
    [3] https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af
    [4] https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz
    [5] https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY
    [6] https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc
    [7] https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF
    [8] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl
    [9] https://bit.ly/46tIOcb
    [10] https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse
    [11] https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw
    [12] k7ra@arrl.net
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 20 17:15:31 2023
    10/20/2023

    Sunspot activity dropped dramatically this week, with only two new
    sunspot groups emerging, on October 14 and 16.

    Compared to last week, the average daily sunspot number slipped from
    144.1 to 89.4, and average daily solar flux from 159.1 to 145.1.

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 7.6 to 6.4, and average
    daily middle latitude A index from 8.3 to 5.

    Predicted solar flux is 128 and 130 October 20-21, 132 on October
    22-23, 134 on October 24-25, 136 on October 26, 145 on October
    27-28, 150 on October 29 through November 5, 140 on November 6-9,
    135 on November 10-11, 145 and 140 on November 12-13, 135 on
    November 14-15, then 140 on November 16-18, 135 and 140 on November
    19-20, 145 on November 21-24, and 150 through the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on October
    20-24, 5 on October 25-26, 8 on October 27-30, 10 and 12 on October
    31 through November 1, 5 on November 2-8, 12 and 8 on November 9-10,
    5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, then 10 and 8 on November
    15-16, 5 on November 17-22, and 8 on November 23-26.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - October 19, 2023 from OK1HH:
     
    "In the last ten days, the number of sunspot groups has dropped from
    ten to three. At the same time the solar flux has dropped
    significantly - from 166 to 135. The last two slightly larger solar
    flares were observed on 16 October. The larger of the two occurred
    in AR3467. The magnetic filament associated with it exploded and
    blew a CME into space.

    "According to NASA's models, while it didn't head directly for
    Earth, it still likely hit it on October 18 (the original estimate
    was that it would happen a day later). Which, while not enough to
    cause a geomagnetic storm, was enough to reach an 'unsettled' state.

    "This was followed by an erratic MUF from 18 October and then a
    decline on 19 October. These lines are written at a time when short
    periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are not yet ruled out on 19
    October, with a possible duration into the first half of 20 October
    UT.

    "A return of larger sunspots and a rise in solar flux towards 150
    can be expected by the end of the month."

    Regarding 10 meter comments by K7SS in last week's Propagation
    Forecast bulletin, Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo-Alto, Puerto
    Rico responded, "I second Dan's, K7SS comments on getting on the air
    even if you are a Tech on 10 meters.

    "I can attest that the band is in good shape: Can contact European
    stations with ease even if my antenna is pointing to the US and when
    it is 2pm local can still contact them when they are at their local
    8-10 pm.

    "My score in contests recently reflect more QSOs on 10 meters and
    now that we are in contest season it is a great opportunity to get
    on the air and see how many countries you can work.

    "You can also check and hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz as of late
    confirming that the band is truly live. And of course, the FM
    (29-29.8 MHz) segment."

    Dr. Julio Medina, NP3CW wrote:

    "Sending some information of activity in 6M band since May to
    October 2023.

    "Been copying stations from Japan, China, Africa, and many others
    such as Philippines on FT8 early in the morning from 1200-1400 UTC
    in FT8 in the 6m band."

    Jon, N0JK wrote on October 6:

    "The 6 meter sporadic-E - linking to TEP (trans equatorial
    propagation) openings usually occur in the afternoon. But there was
    a late evening Es -- TEP opening on October 6.

    "Earlier in the afternoon October 6 I had some weak TEP from South
    America to Kansas.  It faded out around 0030 UTC. Then some
    sporadic-E took place. Sporadic-E is rare in October, the only month
    with less Es is March. That itself is noteworthy, and I logged
    stations in Arizona and northern Mexico starting at 0100 UTC October
    7 on 6 meter FT8. Then at 0133 UTC I began seeing a FT8 trace at
    2,500 Hz. Then it decoded, and was Dale, CE2SV (FF47) sending a
    report to W0SZ in Colorado. When they finished, I called CE2SV.
    After a couple of calls Dale came back and we completed a contact at
    0136 UTC. His signal varied from -10 dB to -17 dB.

    "What is remarkable is I was operating from home using just an attic
    dipole for an antenna. I also decoded CE3SOC and XQ3MCC. N0LL in
    EM09 also worked some South American stations. This was 'evening'
    TEP, which typically has a shorter range than afternoon TEP. The
    evening TEP signals usually have a distinctive 'TEP flutter' sound
    and sometimes don't decode with FT8.  Q65 can be a better digital
    mode for evening TEP.

    "I saw on the ON4KST 6 meter chat page N9PGG in North Carolina
    worked FK8HA and VK4 stations. This was a sporadic-E link (on the
    same Es I had to the south) out to the South Pacific.

    "On another note -- stations in Central America, the Caribbean and
    northern South America have been making 6 meter Long Path contacts
    with east Asia and Malaysia from 1200 - 1600 UTC the last couple of
    mornings.

    "6 meter long path is best with high solar flux and low geomagnetic
    activity.

    "2023-10-07 15:16 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0MZI (OI33JQ) LoTW eQSL 18626 km         
    "2023-10-07 15:00 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0SAS (OI33JS) LoTW eQSL 18623 km          
    "2023-10-07 14:54 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0COU (OI33IU) LoTW eQSL 18611 km          
    "2023-10-07 14:52 JA6GNL (PM53GO) 50.310.0 FT8 PJ4MM (FK52VE) LoTW 14545 km

    "FT8 CQ AS:

    "2023-10-07 14:38 PJ4MM (FK52VE) 50.313.0 FT8 4W/JH2EUV (PI21) LoTW 18502 km +12"

    A video about predicting Solar Flares (Helioseismology):

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24[1]

    A video about a Class X2 flare:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2[2]

    A video about a Cannibal CME:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk[3]

    A report about Solar Cycle history:

    https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN[4]
     
    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 12 through 18, 2023 were 126, 91, 100,
    92, 106, 57, and 54, with a mean of 89.4. 10.7 cm flux was 157.1,
    149, 148.2, 144.6, 144, 137.3, and 135.3, with a mean of 145.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 13, 8, 4, 4, 3, and 9, with a
    mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 6, 2, 3, 2, and 8,
    with a mean of 5.

     


    [1] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24
    [2] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2
    [3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk
    [4] https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN
    [5] https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Oct 27 18:28:45 2023
    10/27/2023

    The recent solar activity decline continues. Weekly average daily
    sunspot numbers starting with Propagation Forecast bulletin ARLP039
    on September 21 were 170.6, 128.6, 144.1, 89.4, and 41.9 for this
    week.

    Weekly average daily solar flux for the same period was 168.8,
    155.6, 159.1, 145.1 and 123.5.

    On October 25 Spaceweather.com[1] noted "Solar Cycle 25 roared to life
    in 2021-23, dashing predictions of a weak solar cycle. Forecasters
    have since been expecting a robust Solar Max in 2024 or 2025.
    Suddenly, however, sunspot counts are dropping."

    But they note that in strong sunspot cycles temporary lulls are
    common, and strong activity should resume soon, with a cycle peak
    within the next two years.

    Forecasters provided a recent link to NOAA:

    https://bit.ly/3FyVWko[2]

    The next day they wrote, "NOAA has just issued a revised forecast
    for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Max is coming quicker and stronger than
    previously thought."

    From NOAA:

    https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update[3]

    Three new sunspot groups appeared this week over October 20-22.

    What is the outlook for the next month?

    Predicted solar flux is 126 on October 27-28, 130 on October 29-30,
    132 on October 31, 134 on November 1-2, 150 on November 3-5, 140 on
    November 6-9, 135 on November 10-11, then 145, 140, 135 and 135 on
    November 12-15, 140 on November 16-18, then 135 and 140 on November 19-20, and 145 on November 21-24, and 150 on November 25 through December 2.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 8, 5, 20, 18 and 8 on October 27
    through November 1,  then 5 on November 2-8, then 12 and 8 on
    November 9-10, 5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, 10 and 8
    on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-22, then 8 on November 23-26,
    and 10 and 12 on November 27-28, and 5 on November 29 through
    December 5.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere from F.K. Janda, OK1HH on October 26, 2023.

    "In the last seven days we observed two surprises. For the first
    time, after the solar flare of 16 October, we saw a geomagnetic
    disturbance on 19 October. But it started on October 18 and
    continued to October 20.

    "Solar activity gradually decreased, M-class flares ceased, and only
    isolated C-class flares continued. By October 23 only two or three
    small groups of spots remained on the solar disk.

    "On October 21, the Earth's magnetic field activity briefly
    increased, which, together with a multi-day decrease in solar
    radiation, caused low MUF values and thus shorter intervals of upper
    shortwave band openings.

    "The geomagnetically quiet development on 22-25 October caused only
    a gradual improvement in shortwave propagation conditions. In
    addition, the daily MUF values were relatively very low.

    "Then, on the 26th, the Earth's magnetic field activity increased.
    Positive phase of disturbance started in the daytime UT, accompanied
    by an increase in MUF (with a maximum around 1300 UT).

    "I don't expect any significant rise in solar activity in October.
    It is indeed forecast for November, but even the STEREO satellites,
    in service for 10 years, have not yet observed more interesting
    activity."

    N0JK wrote:

    "The weekend of Oct 20-22 had some outstanding propagation on 6
    meters.

    "Saturday afternoon October 21 there were Es links to TEP
    (Trans-Equatorial Propagation) on toward the South Pacific from the
    Midwest. N0LL copied FK8CP and ZL1RS on just a hamstick vertical
    while driving from Salina to his home in Smith Center, Kansas. He
    later worked E51WL from his home around 2130 UTC.

    "I was staying at the La Quinta Inn in Scottsdale for the weekend.
    Had my MFJ-9406 along and used a dipole antenna in the hotel room. I
    copied N0LL in EM09, N0KQY in DM98 and N0OT in DM88 on 6 meter Es
    calling DX stations around 1945 UTC. Es in October are rare, and Es
    links rarer still.

    "Later that evening I managed to work W5JAY in EM26 on 6m FT8 via Es
    at 0136 UTC October 22. Power was 7 watts to the indoor dipole. East
    coast stations were working the South Pacific on Es links to TEP.

    "That next afternoon Arizona had Es - link to TEP to South America.
    I copied XE1H in DL80 at the first Es hop.

    "At 2333 UTC on October 22 on 50.313 Rx FT8 copied XE1H in DL80
    calling CQ.

    "October 24 at 2335 UTC copied PY5CC in GG54 via Es link to TEP.

    "Spaceweather.com[4] noted a CME impact October 20. The active
    geomagnetic field boosted the TEP MUF and may have sparked some of
    the sporadic-E as well.

    "73, Jon, N0JK in DM43 (usually EM28)."

    From Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania.

    "Two New Continents on 10 meters 29.600 FM.

    "The upper end of the 10 meter band (29.600 FM) is still kind of
    rough, but on Wednesday, October 18th, 1752 UTC I worked Naama, S01A (Sierra-Zero-One-Alpha) in Western Sahara, Africa, grid IL56hb, RS:
    5x9+ peak both ways. Distance 3607 miles.
     
    "His QRZ page:  https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A[5]

    "Then on Monday, October 23rd, 2206 UTC worked Hirobumi, JF7AWV in
    Kouriyama, Japan, grid PM95vq calling CQ, went back to his call and
    he heard me RS: 5x5, he was a RS: 3x3 moderate QSB. Distance 6502
    miles.
     
    "Just a reminder to operators, please use the ITU Phonetic Alphabet.
    It makes picking out your callsign much more rapidly with less
    confusion under weak propagation conditions.

    "Equipment: Kenwood TS-690S, 80 watts, Cushcraft 10-Meter Ringo 5/8
    wave vertical 10 feet off ground."

    And I have a reminder to FM operators on 29.6 MHz.

    This is the national simplex calling frequency and gets quite busy.
    When making contact, I ask the other station to QSY to a simplex
    frequency, such as 29.2 MHz. [K7RA]

    Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8[6]

    Note that this weekend is the SSB portion of the CQ World Wide DX
    Contest.

    See https://www.cqww.com/[7] .

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 19 through 25, 2023 were 39, 56, 65, 48,
    25, 34, and 26, with a mean of 41.9. 10.7 cm flux was 128.7, 125.7,
    122.6, 118.8, 122.1, 121.1, and 125.8, with a mean of 123.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 22, 8, 3, 4, and 4, with a
    mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 8, 13, 7, 2, 2, and 3,
    with a mean of 6.1.

     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/3FyVWko
    [3] https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update
    [4] http://Spaceweather.com
    [5] https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A
    [6] https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8
    [7] https://www.cqww.com/
    [8] k7ra@arrl.net
    [9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [10] http://k9la.us/
    [11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Nov 3 17:42:37 2023
    11/03/2023

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2333 UTC on 02 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "A possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 31-Oct
    combined with a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 2-Nov
    is expected to produce a chance of G1 geomagnetic activity on 4-Nov
    and G0-G1 activity on 5-Nov."

    Seven new sunspot groups emerged in this reporting week, October 26
    through November 1. Two on October 26, one on October 27, another on
    October 28, two more on October 31 and another on November 1. One
    more appeared on November 2.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41.9 to 76.7, while average
    daily solar flux increased from 123.5 to 137.5.

    Predicted solar flux is 158, 160, 162, 158 and 155 on November 3-7,
    150 on November 8-9, 148, 136, and 134 on November 10-12, 130 on
    November 13-15, then 125, 123, and 120 on November 16-18, then 125
    on November 19-22, and 130 on November 23-26, then 132 on November
    27, 134 on November 28-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
    140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138. 136 and
    134 on December 7-9 and 130 on December 10-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 8 and 5 on November 3-7, 12
    on November 8-9, 8 on November 10, 5 on November 11-13, then 8 and
    10 on November 14-15, 5 on November 16-21, then 15, 10, 15, 15, 20,
    15 and 8 on November 22-28, 5 on November 29 through December 5,
    then 12 and 8 on December 6-7 and 5 on December 8-10.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - November 03, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The coronal hole we saw in the northwest of the solar disk has
    already fallen beyond its limb. Now we're looking at another fairly
    large coronal hole in the southeast. At the same time, both sunspot
    and flare activity decreased in the west and increased in the east. Fortunately, the solar wind from the eastern half of the disk rarely
    reaches the Earth's neighborhood. Therefore, the frequency of
    geomagnetic disturbances is lower.

    "This is valid for most days in the first half of November. As the
    solar activity could also increase, we can expect more stable and
    overall, slightly better shortwave propagation. After that, however,
    the solar flux will gradually return from 160 perhaps to somewhere
    near 120. Therefore, MUF values will begin to slowly decline.

    "As long as the coronal hole remains stable and persists in the
    solar disk after passing through the central meridian, disturbances
    will become more frequent. Therefore, shortwave propagation will
    gradually deteriorate, but no reliable forecast can be made very far
    ahead."

    From Dave, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky, EM78:

    "At 1545 UTC on October 7, I experienced the thrill of a lifetime
    when 3B9FR, Robert on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, answered
    my CQ on 6-meter FT8. I had already worked 3B9FR 10 times over the
    last 20 years on CW, SSB and FT8 on various HF bands but I never
    anticipated working him on 6 meters.

    "The morning began when I worked HC5VF at 1534 UTC with a very
    strong signal. Hearing nothing else from the south, I turned my Yagi
    toward Europe hoping perhaps someone there would decode my CQ. After
    six unsuccessful CQs, Robert called me. I took a screenshot of our
    QSO. I plan to have it framed for the shack wall. According to his
    QRZ.com page, Robert runs 75 watts to a new 6-element quad on 6
    meters. I was running 250 watts to a 3-element Yagi at 60 feet.

    "On October 23, from 2059 to 2359 UTC, I worked 18 South Americans
    on 6-meter FT8. Stations worked were in Argentina, Uruguay and
    Brazil. Then the band changed around to the Pacific and for the
    first time in some 30 years on 6 meters, I copied stations in
    Australia. I decoded five stations in VK4, two in New Caledonia and
    3D2AG in Fiji. Sadly, despite numerous calls, I did not work anyone
    in the Pacific that day. But it was still a thrill to hear those
    entities for the first time on 6 meters. And of course, the QSO into
    the Indian Ocean, at a distance greater than 10,000 miles, made up
    for it.

    "I was very active on 2-meter SSB and CW from the mid-1970s until
    about 2010 when I grew bored and took down my 2-meter Yagi. Earlier
    this year, I felt the urge to return to the low end of 2 meters.
    This time, FT8 seems to mostly have replaced SSB and CW for
    weak-signal work. Since June 28, I have worked 30 states and 102
    grid squares with my new 13-element Yagi.

    "The big five-day tropo opening in August produced more than 160
    QSOs from Colorado to Connecticut. In the middle of the afternoon
    toward the end of that August opening, I decoded both ends of a QSO
    between WQ0P in KS and W1VD in CT, I had worked both of them
    earlier, but it was really something to watch them working over
    about a 1,500 mile path."

    From Bob, KB1DK:

    "Conditions on 10 meters were fair for the CQWW SSB contest this
    past weekend. While propagation was good from Connecticut to the
    Middle East, south and central Europe, signals from Scandinavia, and north/central Russia were barely readable. This was in sharp
    contrast to the conditions on the weekend of October 14th when I
    worked 45 stations with strong signals in the Scandinavia Contest on
    Saturday morning.

    "On October 15th, I operated mobile for the first time. Using an old
    Kenwood TS-570 and a quarter wave vertical magnetically mounted on
    the roof, I logged 28 QSOs in 2 hours including South Africa,
    Greece, South Russia and Scandinavia with respectable reports from a
    fixed hilltop location. It was well worth the effort to wire up the
    car. I did not want to miss out on the great propagation on 10
    meters, especially after the conditions this past spring and last
    fall.

    "If you have an old rig, consider investing for a magnetic mount and
    a 10 meter whip. You won't be disappointed. My next operating
    location will be from the beach on Long Island Sound.

    "All the best from the east coast."

    K7SS reported to the Western Washington DX Club that he worked 10
    meters only in the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, with 643 QSOs in 28
    zones and 75 countries for a claimed score of 177,984 points.

    Articles about an early peak of Solar Cycle 25:

    https://bit.ly/3FF26jh[1]

    https://bit.ly/40ndQQN[2]

    https://bit.ly/45REtys[3]

    Trailblazing female astronomers, one is Mrs. Annie Maunder:

    https://bit.ly/478EfEo[4]

    New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2023 were 57, 66,
    70, 61, 62, 116, and 105, with a mean of 76.7. 10.7 cm flux was
    126.4, 127.5, 128, 135.2, 139.7, 147.3, and 158.6, with a mean of
    137.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 11, 19, 28, 12, 9, and
    9, with a mean of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 9, 13, 21,
    10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.9.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3FF26jh
    [2] https://bit.ly/40ndQQN
    [3] https://bit.ly/45REtys
    [4] https://bit.ly/478EfEo
    [5] https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 2 15:41:04 2023
    11/14/2023

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2310 UTC/09 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

    "G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-12 Nov, with a
    slight chance of G3 due to the anticipated arrival of a halo CME
    first observed 09-Nov. Conditions are expected to ease to background
    levels on 13-Nov."

    A great, big geomagnetic storm on Sunday disrupted the second day of
    ARRL CW Sweepstakes. Planetary A index for the day was 57, and the
    highest 3-hour planetary K index readings were 6, 6, 7 and 6.33 from
    1200-2100 UTC. This was triggered by a coronal mass ejection (CME).

    This reporting week, ending November 8, saw six new emerging sunspot
    groups, one on each day, except November 6.

    Solar activity improved, with average daily sunspot number
    increasing from 76.7 to 89.7. Average daily solar flux rose from
    137.5 to 151.7.

    Geomagnetic activity increased. Average daily planetary A index
    changed from 15.9 to 22.3 and middle latitude A index rose from 11.9
    to 14.6.

    The most active days were Sunday and Monday when the planetary A
    index was 57 and 40, respectively.

    Predicted solar flux is 140 on November 10-11, then 145, 130 and 135
    on November 12-14, 130 on November 15-16, 123 and 120 on November
    17-18, 125 on November 19-22, 130 on November 23-26, then 132, 134
    and 134 on November 27-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
    then 140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138, 136
    and 134 on December 7-9, 130 on December 10-12, then 125, 123 and
    120 on December 13-15, and 125 on December 16-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 8, 12 and 10 on November
    10-14, then 5 on November 15-21, then 15, 10 and 15 on November
    22-24, then 15, 20, 15 and 8 on November 25-28, then 5 on November
    29 through December 5, then 12 and 8 on December 6-7, 5 on December
    8-10, then 8, 10, and 8 on December 11-13, and 5 on December 14-18.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - November 9, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "In agreement with the prediction, two CMEs probably hit the Earth
    on 4 and 5 November in succession (at least the second one on 3
    November, also in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, was a 'full
    halo CME').

    "A G1 class geomagnetic storm was expected for the arrival of both
    CMEs. The expectation was gradually changed to G2, but in fact its
    intensity reached G3 (since 5 November 1743 UT, by K = 7).

    "A relatively recently described and still somewhat mysterious
    phenomenon, referred to as 'STEVE' (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), was also observed.

    "It looks like an aurora, but unlike the aurora, it can be detected
    already in weaker storms (by K = 4 or more). They are caused by hot
    (3000 deg C) jets of gas flowing through the Earth's magnetosphere
    at speeds in excess of 6 km/s.

    "For the shortwave propagation, the positive phase of the
    disturbance development (with increase of MUF and overall
    improvement) was observed not only on November 4, but even better
    after a pause on November 5. This was followed by a massive
    deterioration, especially on 6 November, continuing to some extent
    on 7 November. Although the influx of fast solar wind with enhanced
    proton content continued, an increase in MUF followed with relative
    improvement in shortwave propagation conditions as early as 8-9
    November."

    On Friday, November 3, W0IY wrote:

    "I was very pleased with great conditions to Europe and North Africa
    Saturday October 28 at 1700 UTC on 10 meters SSB. Happily working
    stations when I saw a spot for Vanuatu. Tuned to the freq and easily
    worked him. Didn't change the beam.

    "Sunday morning same conditions and there is a spot for Reunion
    Island. 1 call.

    "Neither sounded like long path. Both strong signals in Cedar
    Rapids, Iowa.

    "Just seems like odd propagation."

    I ran some paths with W6ELprop software, and to Reunion from W0IY
    the best time for 10 meters on this 10,000 mile path would be
    1630-1800 UTC, with possible openings also from 1530-1900 UTC.

    An article on recent aurora:

    https://bit.ly/467cs6d[1]

    A solar eruption resembling a "Canyon of Fire":

    https://bit.ly/3sBIGZo[2]

    Scientists discover new truth about the Sun's structure:

    https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/the-sun-structure-new-discovery[3]

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/nPrxI0KJmv4[4]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 2 through 8, 2023 were 113, 106, 95,
    81, 67, 74, and 92, with a mean of 89.7. 10.7 cm flux was 158.4,
    156.1, 155.3, 154.8, 146.2, 145.1, and 145.7, with a mean of 151.7.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 14, 57, 40, 18, and 16,
    with a mean of 22.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 12, 30, 27,
    11, and 15, with a mean of 14.6.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/467cs6d
    [2] https://bit.ly/3sBIGZo
    [3] https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/the-sun-structure-new-discovery
    [4] https://youtu.be/nPrxI0KJmv4
    [5] k7ra@arrl.net
    [6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [7] http://k9la.us/
    [8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 2 15:41:11 2023
    11/17/2023

    "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2306 UTC 16 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "Two recent CMEs associated with small solar filament eruptions are
    expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid 19-Nov to 20-Nov.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2023."

    Solar activity was lower this week, November 9-15, with average
    daily sunspot numbers dropping from 89.7 to 80.1, and average daily
    solar flux from 151.7 to 133.8.

    If these numbers seem a little low lately, we should check the
    bulletin from the same week last year.

    In the November 18, 2022 bulletin average daily sunspot number
    changed from 79.8 to 72.3, so a year later we are definitely still
    trending higher.

    Geomagnetic indicators were also lower, planetary A index changing
    from 22.3 to 10.4, and middle latitude A index from 14.6 to 8.6.

    A single new sunspot group appeared on November 10, another on
    November 12, one more on November 13 and another on November 14.
     
    Predicted solar flux is 118 and 120 on November 17-18,  122 on
    November 19-22, then 126, 135 and 135 on November 23-25, then 140,
    148, and 152 November 26-28, 155 on November 29 through December 1,
    then 152, 150, 148 and 145 on December 2-5, then 140 on December
    6-8, then 145, 135, 130 and 125 on December 9-12, 120 on December
    13-15, then 125, 128, 130 and 132 on December 16-19, 135 on December
    20-22, 140 and 148 on December 23-24, and 152 on December 25-26.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 15, 26 and 10 on November
    17-21, then 5, 10, 18, 20 and 12 on November 22-26, 8 on November
    27-28, 5 on November 29 through December 3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10
    on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December 10-13, then 5 on
    December 14-18, then 15, 12, 18, 20, and 12 no December 19-23, and 8
    on December 24-25.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere November 17-23, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "During the first half of November, solar activity continuously
    decreased, which was not what we would have liked for shortwave
    propagation.

    "Even worse, there were relatively few geomagnetically quiet days -
    only November 2, 3, 11 and 14.

    "There were more days with higher geomagnetic activity: 4-8, 13 and
    15 November. In addition, high levels of free electrons were present
    in the ionosphere during relatively long periods (up to 4 November
    and 7-12 November), which contributed to an increase in the
    attenuation of passing electromagnetic waves.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions in the second half of the month
    should definitely be better as solar activity is expected to
    increase. In addition, with the exception of the last days of
    November (when we expect a disturbance), we expect the geomagnetic
    field to be mostly quiet to only moderately active.

    "If we try to account for the 27-day recurrence, geomagnetically
    active days with fluctuations in propagation should occur after
    November 21 again, but this is really only a guess given the current
    nature of the trend."

    Check this site for an update on current conditions on various
    bands:

    https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[1]
     
    From Dick Bingham, W7WKR, an article about Heliophysics and amateur
    radio:

    https://bit.ly/46jYf5O[2]

    An article from NOAA about Sunspots/Solar Cycle:

    https://bit.ly/47iUpv2[3]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 9 through 15, 2023 were 93, 93, 85, 78,
    85, 86, and 41, with a mean of 80.1. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7, 143.9,
    141.5, 137.2, 132.7, 123.8, and 118.9, with a mean of 133.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 10, 5, 12, 16, 6, and 12,
    with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 4, 10, 15, 5,
    and 11, with a mean of 8.6.
     


    [1] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
    [2] https://bit.ly/46jYf5O
    [3] https://bit.ly/47iUpv2
    [4] k7ra@arrl.net
    [5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [6] http://k9la.us/
    [7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 2 15:41:18 2023
    11/27/2023

    Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet last weekend, good conditions
    for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes. But there was much more geomagnetic
    activity toward the end of the reporting week, when the planetary A
    index jumped to 30 and Alaska's College A index reached 60, a very
    high value.

    This past weekend was the CW portion of the CQ World Wide DX
    Contest.

    Solar activity really picked up in the past few days, with three new
    sunspot groups on November 17, 18 and 19, then six new groups on
    November 20, another on November 21, and three more groups on
    Thanksgiving Day, November 23.

    Sunspot numbers on Tuesday through Thursday, November 21-23 were
    138, 174 and 176, and the total sunspot area on Thursday was 1560
    millionths of the solar surface, the largest in a long time.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 80.1 to 83.3, while average
    daily solar flux went from 133.8 to 146. Average daily planetary A
    index went from 10.4 to 10.1, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6
    to 7.3.

    Predicted solar flux is 195 on November 24-28, then 190, 185, 155
    and 152 on November 29 through December 2, then 150, 148 and 145 on
    December 3-5, 140 on December 6-8, 145 on December 9-10, 140 on
    December 11-17, 145 on December 18-23, 148 on December 24, 152 on
    December 25-26, 155 on December 27-28, then 152, 150 and 148 on
    December 29-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on November 24-25, 15 on
    November 26-27, 8 on November 28, 5 on November 29 through December
    3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-11, then
    10 and 8 on December 12-13, 5 on December 14-17, then 10, 15 and 12
    on December 18-20, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on December 21-25, and 5 on
    December 26-30.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere November 24-30, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
    activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
    days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
    of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave propagation
    conditions were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

    "In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
    calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
    November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
    expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
    days followed on November 19-20. Then, despite seven new sunspot
    groups and calm in the Earth's magnetosphere, propagation conditions
    did not improve until November 20.

    "Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
    geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
    development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
    conditions (at intervals of 10-13 UTC and 16-19 UTC).

    "The following evolution could be expected - there was a
    deterioration of propagation conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration
    was short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar
    activity, an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

    "Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
    hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
    solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
    wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
    worse days."

    In a message titled "6 Meter F2 November 22" Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Despite a predicted CME impact over the weekend of November 18-19
    missing the Earth, the geomagnetic field had minor storm conditions
    November 22. The K index went to 5. This was enough of a nudge for
    the F2 MUF to climb above 50 MHz to South America.

    "I had several HC stations in around 1503z including HC2AO, HC2FG
    and HC1MD/2. The opening lasted about 45 minutes then faded. Later
    F2 appeared to the Caribbean area. I logged PJ4MM in FK52 at 1615z.

    "Stations in the Minneapolis, MN area had an opening to Namibia with
    V51WW working numerous W9 and W0 stations on 6 Meter FT8."
     
    In the current issue of the ARRL Letter there is an article about
    two hams who are 100 miles apart in Florida who made contact via a
    10 meter FM repeater in Switzerland.

    The annual ARRL 160-Meter Contest will be this weekend, December
    1-3:

    https://www.arrl.org/160-meter[1]

    Looking forward, the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest will be on
    December 9-10:

    https://www.arrl.org/10-meter[2]

    Two new video reports from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/DDh8-j1yOw0[3]

    https://youtu.be/tZ7BZd6LKzU[4]

    Two articles on a big sunspot group:

    https://bit.ly/40TWATp[5]

    https://bit.ly/47P9C7d[6]
                  
    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 16 through 22, 2023 were 28, 26, 39,
    51, 127, 138, and 174, with a mean of 83.3. 10.7 cm flux was 117.9,
    119.6, 127.1, 140.1, 156.5, 171.5, and 189.5, with a mean of 146.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 3, 4, 5, 18, and 30, with a
    mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 3, 2, 3, 4, 15, and 17,
    with a mean of 7.3.

     


    [1] https://www.arrl.org/160-meter
    [2] https://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [3] https://youtu.be/DDh8-j1yOw0
    [4] https://youtu.be/tZ7BZd6LKzU
    [5] https://bit.ly/40TWATp
    [6] https://bit.ly/47P9C7d
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Sat Dec 2 15:41:22 2023
    12/01/2023

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 23/74 ISSUED AT 2321UT/29 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "Several CMEs are expected to impact Earth over 30 Nov and 01 Dec. Two CMEs were observed on 27 Nov that were expected to arrive on 30 Nov, followed shortly by a very mild glancing blow from a third.

    "One or possibly two halo CMEs were observed on 29 Nov which are Earth directed.  It is likely all or some of these CMEs will combine on their trajectory toward Earth, making it difficult to pinpoint an exact arrival time, however G3-G4 geomagnetic conditions are possible over this period."

    Over the past reporting week, ten new sunspot groups appeared. Three on November 23, one each day on November 24 to 26, another on November 28 and three more on November 29.

    Solar numbers increased, with average daily sunspot number rising dramatically from 83.3 to 165.9, doubling the previous week's number. Average daily solar flux rose from 146 to 181.5.

    Geomagnetic numbers rose only slightly, with planetary A index changing from 10.1 to 11.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 7.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 166 and 162 on December 1 and 2, 158 on December 3 and 4, then 156, 152, 150 and 140 on December 5 to 8, 145 on December 9 and 10, 140 on December 11 to 16, 150 on December 17, then 160 on December 18 to 28, then 165, 160 and 150 on December 29 to 31, then 145 on January 1, 2024, 140 on January 2 to 4, and 145 on January 5 and 6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 54, 22 and 10 on December 1 to 3, 16 on December 4 and 5, 12 and 8 on December 6 and 7, 5 on December 8 to 11, then 10 and 8 on December 12 and 13, 5 on December 14 to 17, then 15, 25, 8 and 5 on December 18 and 21, then 20, 10, 10, and 8 on December 22 to 25, and 5 on December 26 to 30, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on December 31 through January 3, 2024, and 5 on January 4 to 7.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere December 1 to 7, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "A week ago the CW portion of the CQ World Wide DX Contest was held. Prior to that there were several scenarios of possible developments during the weekend of November 25 and 26, 2023.  In the end the less likely scenario was the one that developed.  This was due to a relatively inconspicuous C-class solar flare observed on November 22.

    "However, a detailed analysis of its evolution revealed that it was preceded by a pre-eruption, which was the first signal that a CME was likely to follow.

    "Further observations from satellites and radio telescopes confirmed the CME and measured the speed of the particle cloud.  Its rendezvous with Earth was expected on November 24, which would have been bad enough for the contest. However, the particle cloud hit the Earth a day later.  Therefore shortwave propagation improved on November 25 (especially in the afternoon UTC, during the positive phase of the disturbance), whereupon an aggravation occurred on the following day.

    "The maximum of solar cycle 25 is approaching.  CMEs, originating from more energetic solar flares, or from solar plasma filament eruptions, are hitting Earth with increasing frequency.

    "For example, at the time of this writing, another geomagnetic disturbance is expected as another CME from the eruption observed on November 28 is expected to hit Earth on December 1 and 2.

    "In the meantime, we are observing a rather large coronal hole in the southeastern solar disk, which will deflate along its southwestern quadrant over the next week.

    "In particular, we are observing active regions to the east of it. This neighbourhood will result in further intensification of the solar wind and variations in geomagnetic field activity over the next week.  Its predictions do exist, but they will not be reliable."

    I noticed that OK1HH has a packet radio address.  His address is:

    Pmail: OK1HH@OK0NAG.BOH.CZE.EU[1]

    Cycle peak in 2024?  https://bit.ly/3sXwrqi[2]

    Cycle peak in the next few months?  https://bit.ly/3N7KOPG[3]

    Predicting cycle peaks.  https://bit.ly/46EKxKU[4]

    A new long video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    A archive of past propagation bulletins is at  

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]

    Sunspot numbers for November 23 through 29, 2023 were 176, 184, 179,169, 159, 130, and 164, with a mean of 83.3.  10.7 cm flux was 194.2, 178, 176.4, 180.2, 187.3, 183.5, and 170.6, with a mean of 146.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 38, 10, 7, 7, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.  Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 18, 9, 2, 6, and 9, with a mean of 7.3.


    [1] mailto:OK1HH@OK0NAG.BOH.CZE.EU
    [2] https://bit.ly/3sXwrqi
    [3] https://bit.ly/3N7KOPG
    [4] https://bit.ly/46EKxKU
    [5] https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo
    [6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Mon Dec 11 14:05:42 2023
    12/11/2023

    Six new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week (November 30
    to December 6).

    Last week, using the previous week's Propagation Forecast bulletin
    as a template, the averages were not updated, although all the
    correct data was there.

    So instead of average daily sunspot number of 83.3, it was actually
    165.9, which this week dropped to 121.1.

    Instead of average daily solar flux of 146, it was actually 181.5,
    which this week declined to 146.5.

    Instead of average daily planetary A index of 10.1, it was actually
    11.6, which this week rose to 17.1. Instead of average middle
    latitude A index of 7.3 it was 9, rising this week to 11.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 135, 130, 130 and 135 on December 8-11, 137
    on December 12-15, 140 and 150 on December 16-17, 160 on December
    18-26, then 155, 150, 145, and 140 on December 27-30, then 136, 134
    and 130 on December 31 through January 2, 2024, and 132 on January
    3-5, then 130 and 135 on January 6-7, then 140 on January 8-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December
    10-11, 5 on December 12-17, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on December
    18-23, 5 on December 24-30, then 25, 10 and 8 on December 31 through
    January 2, 2024, and 5 on January 3-6, then 10 and 8 on January 7-8,
    and 5 on January 9-13.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, December 8-14, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
    activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
    days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
    of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave conditions
    were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

    "In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
    calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
    November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
    expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
    days followed on November 19-20.

    "Then, despite seven new sunspot groups and calm in the Earth's
    magnetosphere, propagation did not improve until November 20.

    "Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
    geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
    development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
    conditions (at intervals of 1000-1300 UTC and 1600-1900 UTC).

    "The following evolution could be expected - there was a
    deterioration of conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration was
    short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar activity,
    an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

    "Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
    hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
    solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
    wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
    worse days."

    From "Universe Today" a story about a big, big solar storm in 1872:

    https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL[1]

    A story about a big coronal hole:

    https://bit.ly/487quGd[2]

    From "Science Alert" another article about a big hole on the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/41adYDC[3]

    From "EarthSky" a new region on the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG[4]

    Don't forget, the ARRL 10 meter contest is THIS weekend!

    https://www.arrl.org/10-meter[5]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

    Sunspot numbers for November 30 through December 6, 2023 were 138,
    140, 92, 107, 113, 133, and 125, with a mean of 121.1. 10.7 cm flux
    was 166.5, 162, 148.2, 139.2, 137.8, 141.6, and 129.9, with a mean
    of 146.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 56, 14, 11, 9, 15,
    and 10, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 30, 11,
    10, 9, 9, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL
    [2] https://bit.ly/487quGd
    [3] https://bit.ly/41adYDC
    [4] https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG
    [5] https://www.arrl.org/10-meter
    [6] k7ra@arrl.net
    [7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [8] http://k9la.us/
    [9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 15 18:13:56 2023
    12/15/2023

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0132 UTC ON 15 DECEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "Two predominately westward CMEs were observed on 14-Dec and
    component arrivals are expected on 17-Dec.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR 17 DECEMBER 2023."

    Spaceweather.com[1] issued this alert on Thursday:

    "MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The Sun just unleashed the strongest
    solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), an X2.8-class explosion from
    unstable sunspot AR3514. The blast caused a deep shortwave radio
    blackout over the Americas and may have hurled a fast CME toward
    Earth."

    Solar activity declined this week. Average daily sunspot numbers
    dropped from 121.1 to 110.3, and average daily solar flux from 146.5
    to 129.8.

    With such low geomagnetic activity, conditions were good for last
    weekend's ARRL 10 Meter Contest, although some wished for more
    sunspots.

    Six new sunspot groups appeared this week. The first two on December
    8, another two on December 11 and 12, and two more on December 13.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with planetary A index dropping
    from 14.1 to 5.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 4.6.

    Predicted solar flux shows some expected improvement, with values
    peaking at 160 on December 20-22, and 155 on January 23.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on December 15-16, then 145, 150 and 155
    on December 17-19, 160 on December 20-22, but dropping back to 140
    on December 23-24, 150 on December 25-26, then 155, 150 and 145 on
    December 27-29, then 140 on December 30 through January 2, 2024, and
    135 on January 3-5, then 130, 125, 120, 118, and 120 on January
    6-10, 122 on January 11-12, then 124, 125, and 130 on January 13-15,
    135 on January 16-18, 140 on January 19-20, and 150 on January
    21-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 22 on December 15-16, 12 on
    December 17-18, then 18, 8, 8, 20 and 10 on December 19-23, 5 on
    December 24-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
    2024, 5 on January 3-6, 12 on January 7-9, 8 and 5 on January 10-11,
    12 on January 12-13, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on January 14-19,
    and 5 for at least the following few days.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere December 15-21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Solar activity has been gradually decreasing over the last seven
    days, broadly in line with the forecast.

    "Most of the flares came from the active region AR3514, which was
    moving from the northeast to the northwest.

    "Eventually, most of the sunspots were in the northwest of the solar
    disk, and as they gradually set over the next few days, solar
    activity should continue to decrease.

    "While activity on the Sun's receding half does not appear to be
    great, there is definitely a larger active region beyond the Sun's
    northeastern limb. This observation is likely the basis for the
    latest forecast from the U.S. Air Force, which predicts a rise in
    solar flux initially to 160, and after a slight drop back above 150
    around Christmas.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions, which have suffered particularly
    in the Earth's northern hemisphere from the decline in solar
    activity, should improve.

    "But developments may be more complicated. Just as a CME originating
    from the solar flare of 11 December with a peak at 2243 UT arrived
    at Earth before midnight UTC on 13 December, triggered a geomagnetic disturbance in the first hours UTC on 14 December and significantly
    worsened propagation, we can expect something similar from the
    stronger flare of 14 December with a peak at 0744 UTC. However,
    subsequent geomagnetic disturbances should be no more intense than
    G1."

    Reader David Moore sent this article from "SpaceNews":

    https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF[2]

    On Wednesday morning Spaceweather.com announced:

    "The best meteor shower of the year is expected to peak on December
    13-14 with no Moon to spoil the show. Rural observers could see
    hundreds of Geminid meteors and more than a few fireballs."

    From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:

    "The 10 meter contest in my view was pretty nice on average,
    although did notice this:

    "During 0000 UTC on Saturday got always South America for about 3
    hours before the band closed. Then before 1200 UTC got to work
    VR2XAN which was a surprise as my antenna was pointing to Europe (he
    said he was beaming the South Pole) and it's been 10 years since I
    worked Hong Kong for the first time.

    "But then, could not work a few Europeans, and the band likely
    closed to them by 1500 UTC, and the US was pretty strong.

    "Then it closed at 2230 UTC, so SA predominated again. It repeated
    for Sunday.

    "Also noted that there was a lot of fading as some stations
    disappeared for a few seconds to a minute. And the SFI dropped to
    130 which could have been a factor.

    "But for what I am happy is that I accumulated 600 points for the
    VOTA event, and I delivered 35."

    Did you know India has a solar observatory in space?  Here is an
    article from "The Times Of India":

    https://bit.ly/3GGecsH[3]

    From WBZ news, a story about a Massive Solar Flare:

    https://bit.ly/4anifba[4]

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI wrote:

    "The solar flux wasn't optimal for the ARRL 10-meter contest last
    weekend, but it was good enough. There was a lot of activity on the
    voice part of the band.

    "Operating from my kayak with 10 watts and a small homebrew loop, I
    gathered 38 contest exchanges on Saturday and Sunday, around 3-1/2
    hours of operating in total.

    "On Saturday, South and Central America, and Caribbean stations were
    coming in as well as the usual Canadian stations for
    out-of-the-country exchanges. I managed to snap up one Brazilian
    station for DX.

    "On Sunday, I heard Australian stations coming in, but couldn't get
    them to hear me. There were also more Brazilian stations plus a few
    from Argentina.

    "I was operating around noontime. QSB was evident."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, put out a new video this week:

    https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc[5]

    A couple of interesting QRZ.com[6] pages to check out: KS7ROH for his astrophotography and other projects, and W6BSD for links to his
    propagation pages.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 7 through 13, 2023 were 121, 125, 125,
    120, 87, 80, and 114, with a mean of 110.3. 10.7 cm flux was 134.6,
    132.6, 127.9, 126.6, 125.9, 126.2, and 134.8, with a mean of 129.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 10, and 8, with a
    mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 8, and 7,
    with a mean of 4.6.

     


    [1] http://Spaceweather.com
    [2] https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF
    [3] https://bit.ly/3GGecsH
    [4] https://bit.ly/4anifba
    [5] https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc
    [6] http://QRZ.com
    [7] k7ra@arrl.net
    [8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [9] http://k9la.us/
    [10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 22 15:36:41 2023
    12/22/2023

    The Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year in the Northern
    Hemisphere occurred at 0327 UTC on December 22. It is the start of
    summer in the Southern Hemisphere.

    Solar activity increased over the last reporting week (December
    14-20), with eleven new sunspot groups emerging.

    One new sunspot group appeared on December 15, four more on the
    following day, another on December 17, three more on December 18,
    and two more in December 19-20.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 110.3 to 137.4, solar flux
    from 129.8 to 162.7, planetary A index 5.6 to 18.4, and middle
    latitude A index from 4.6 to 13.7.

    The most active day was Sunday, December 17 when the planetary A
    index was 36, and Alaska's college A index was 88.

    The cause was what Spaceweather.com reported as the strongest flare
    of the current solar cycle, an X2.8 class, and it caused a radio
    blackout.

    Here is a video of the brief flash:

    https://bit.ly/3RP3xCw[1]

    Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that another flare is coming
    from sunspot group AR3529, and here is a movie they posted:

    https://bit.ly/3tipAbr[2]

    Predicted solar flux is 190, 188 and 186 on December 22-24, then
    182, 180, 170 and 165 on December 25-28, 145 on December 29-30, 150
    on December 31, then 145, 140 and 138 on January 1-3, 2024, then 136
    on January 4-5, then 140, 145 and 148 on January 6-8, 145 on January
    9-12, then 150, 147, 145, 140, and 138 on January 13-17, 136 on
    January 18-19, then 140, 145 and 148 on January 20-22, then 145 on
    January 23-26, then 150, 145, 140 and 138 on January 27-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on December 22-24, 5 on
    December 25-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
    2024, 5 on January 3-7, 10 on January 8-9, 8 on January 10, 5 on
    January 11-13, 15 on January 14, 12 on January 15-16, and 8 on
    January 17-19, then 5 on January 20-25, and 8 on January 26-27.

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, from Kansas:

    "Some winter 6 meter Es December 18-19. N7BHC (EL15) and KD5CAF
    (EL18) into EM28 for me on FT8 around 0100 UTC December 19. Earlier
    stations in Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri had ZL7DX in on 6 meters
    at 2200 UTC December 18."

    Here is a new, long video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from
    earlier this week:

    https://bit.ly/3GPRYET[3]

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - December 21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Astronomical winter began in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment
    of the Winter Solstice: December 22 at 0327 UTC. On this day is the
    longest night and, of course, the shortest day. The total effect of
    solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation on the ionosphere of our
    hemisphere was thus relatively the smallest of the entire year, and
    the effects of changes in the solar wind were all the more
    effective. This is also one of the reasons why, despite relatively
    high solar activity, the shortwave propagation conditions are worse
    than we would like and then we expected.

    "Over the next six months, the length of the day will increase until
    the Summer Solstice on June 20. Slowly at first, then faster,
    fastest around the Spring Equinox on March 20. It is certain that
    then the propagation conditions will be significantly better than
    now. It is even possible that the maximum of the eleven-year cycle
    will occur as early as next year, although it would be better for us
    if it did not occur until 2025.

    "Although we have not observed any particularly large sunspot groups
    in recent weeks, there were always one or two active regions among
    them, whose magnetic configuration allowed the development of a
    medium-sized eruption, possibly even with a CME - after all we
    observed several of these. The exception was the X2.8 class eruption
    on December 14 at 1702 UTC, the strongest so far since the beginning
    of the 25th solar cycle, or since the major disturbances in
    September 2017.

    "The eruption originated in AR3514, which was approaching the
    western limb of the Sun. Even though it hurled a fast-moving CME
    into space, it was relatively unlikely to cause strong geomagnetic
    storms here on Earth. Eventually, the CME either missed Earth or hit
    so weakly that it was not detected by satellite sensors.

    "During the rise of the solar flux from 126 on December 12 to 195 on
    December 20, with the corresponding increase in solar X-ray
    radiation, shortwave propagation improved only slightly, actually
    fluctuating, which was expected.

    "The last geomagnetically quiet day was December 13, after which the
    Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active (more precisely:
    active around last weekend). However, most days until the end of
    this year should be geomagnetically quieter, while the solar flux
    will remain elevated. Therefore, we can expect slightly better
    propagation."

    Here are a number of articles about a Big Flare:

    https://bit.ly/3RQG4Rb[4]

    https://bit.ly/3RRzBpe[5]

    https://bit.ly/48tJtuH[6]

    https://bit.ly/3TAeybV[7]

    https://bit.ly/48pIpbo[8]

    https://bit.ly/488c88X[9]

    https://bit.ly/3tymsrK[10]

    https://bit.ly/3RwJzLh[11]

    https://bit.ly/3RThBuQ[12]

    https://bit.ly/3RRzzh0[13]

    An article about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/3v5b5Il[14]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[15]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[16] and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[17] . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[18] .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[19] . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[20] .

    Also, check this article about understanding solar indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[21]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[22] .

    Sunspot numbers for December 14 through 20, 2023 were 126, 130, 163,
    129, 137, 144, and 133, with a mean of 137.4. 10.7 cm flux was
    155.1, 144.3, 149, 154.6, 161.4, 179.3, and 195.3, with a mean of
    162.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 12, 14, 36, 28, 12,
    and 11, with a mean of 18.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 10,
    32, 16, 10, and 7, with a mean of 13.7.

     


    [1] https://bit.ly/3RP3xCw
    [2] https://bit.ly/3tipAbr
    [3] https://bit.ly/3GPRYET
    [4] https://bit.ly/3RQG4Rb
    [5] https://bit.ly/3RRzBpe
    [6] https://bit.ly/48tJtuH
    [7] https://bit.ly/3TAeybV
    [8] https://bit.ly/48pIpbo
    [9] https://bit.ly/488c88X
    [10] https://bit.ly/3tymsrK
    [11] https://bit.ly/3RwJzLh
    [12] https://bit.ly/3RThBuQ
    [13] https://bit.ly/3RRzzh0
    [14] https://bit.ly/3v5b5Il
    [15] k7ra@arrl.net
    [16] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [17]
    [18] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [19] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [20] http://k9la.us/
    [21] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [22] http://arrl.org/bulletins

    ---
    ■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS
  • From ARRL de WD1CKS@VERT/WLARB to QST on Fri Dec 29 22:06:06 2023
    12/29/2023

    The recent reporting week, December 21-27, saw counter-intuitive solar numbers, with solar flux rising but sunspot numbers in decline. This happens from time to time.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 137.4 to 114.4. Only three new sunspot groups emerged, two on December 22, and one on December 27. On Thursday, December 28 one more sunspot emerged and the sunspot number increased from 78 to 83.

    Average daily solar flux rose from 162.7 to 172.6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 145 on December 29-30, 140 on December 31 to January 1, 2024, 135 on January 2-4, 150 on January 5-7, 155 on January 8-11, then 150, 155, 160, 170 and 175 on January 12-16, 180 on January 17-21, then 170, 165, 162, 155 and 145 on January 22-26, then 140 on January 27-30, and 150 on January 31 to February 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, 16, and 8 on December 29 through January 2, 2024, then 5 on January 3-7, then 10, 10 and 8 on  January 8-10, then 5 on January 11-25, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 26-29, and 5 on January 30 through February 3.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, December 28, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "There are active regions on the Sun that may not even be large, but whose magnetic configuration points to the possibility of solar flares, up to moderately important ones. CMEs are no exception, but they may not hit the Earth at all.

    "On December 24, three moderate-importance flares were observed. At least one of them produced a CME. Based on measurements of its velocity, the collision with Earth was predicted to December 27. However, nothing happened, and despite the extension of the prediction of the onset of the disturbance by a day, calm continued on 28 December.

    "For many days now there has been such a large active region on the Sun's far side that it is affecting the vibration of the entire Sun. In addition, it has been observed by NASA's Mars Perseverance rover camera. While it is primarily designed to see if there is dust in the air, it can see large sunspots and, most importantly, the sun's far side is now visible from Mars.

    "So we await the return of AR 3514, which will rise in the northeastern solar disk shortly after the New Year. It will be a significant contributor to the further rise in solar activity in the days ahead. Furthermore, longer term forecasts are calling for high solar activity in the second half of January. So perhaps we will finally see an improvement in shortwave conditions."

    Don't forget ARRL Straight Key Night is this weekend, for all of New Years Day (UTC), so that starts at 4:00 PM Sunday here on the Left Coast where I live. Operate CW in a casual event using your straight key or semi-automatic bug.

    Recent activity: https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE[1]

    Sun as revolving field motor: https://bit.ly/41CbEFA[2]

    Aurora: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5[3]

    2023 solar activity:

    http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd[4]   https://bit.ly/3RYngj1[5]

    Cosmic spectacle: https://bit.ly/41C8kdR[6]

    Larger storms: https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB[7]

    Tamitha Skov's latest report: https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE[8]

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10]  and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

    http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12]  

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

    http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]

    Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16]

    Sunspot numbers for December 21 through 27, 2023 were 138, 157, 123, 113, 98, 94, and 78, with a mean of 114.4. 10.7 cm flux was 193.6, 186.7, 174.2, 183.4, 166.7, 154.2, and 149.4, with a mean of 172.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 7, 9, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 5, 7, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.


    [1] https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE
    [2] https://bit.ly/41CbEFA
    [3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5
    [4] http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd
    [5] https://bit.ly/3RYngj1
    [6] https://bit.ly/41C8kdR
    [7] https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB
    [8] https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE
    [9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
    [10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
    [11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
    [12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
    [13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
    [14] http://k9la.us/
    [15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
    [16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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